OAK⇄ARI

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$77.6M net +5.4

received +$47.2M+$47.2M ± $56M expected surplus · +$72.0M realized received 8.5 ± 7 expected · 8.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2012 odds 22% → 36% (+14.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jarrod ParkerP·23y·R/R

+$37.0M+$37.0M± $46M exp surplusrealized +$56.8M 5.4± 6 exp WARrealized 4.9

Prior

#9 overall draft pick → 0.80/yr

Evidence

recent form 7.4/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.98/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Collin CowgillOF·26y·R/L

+$10.8M+$10.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#168 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Ryan CookP·25y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$15.2M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized 3.5

Prior

#828 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Kevin Towers net −$77.6M net -5.4

received +$24.0M+$24.0M ± $34M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 4.0 ± 4 expected · 3.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2012 odds 42% → 26% (-15.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Trevor CahillP·24y·R/R

+$22.4M+$22.4M± $34M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 3.4± 4 exp WARrealized 3.0

Prior

#66 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.12/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Craig BreslowP·31y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.39/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.