ARI⇄CHW

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net +$6.4M net +0.8

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2004 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brad MurrayP·25y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#802 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$6.4M net -0.8

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $12M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 2.2 ± 2 expected · -0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2004 odds 26% → 23% (-3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Roberto Alomar2B·36y·B/R

+$12.1M+$12.1M± $12M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 2.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.9/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

2.06/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.99 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.