RRosternomics

Diamondbacks ARI

GM: Joe Garagiola

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.16× league · TAB -3.7
-3.7TAB — talent above budget21st/30
+0.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)17th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/30
-6.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
34%dead money %17th/30
0.519win %16th/30
32.4roster fWAR16th/30
-39surplus $M (value vs cost)26th/30
$79Mpayroll $M11th/30

Roster

CFSteve Finley 140GDanny Bautista 18GQuinton McCracken 16G
LFLuis Gonzalez 154GQuinton McCracken 10GRobby Hammock 5G
RFRaúl Mondesi 139GDanny Bautista 59GQuinton McCracken 34G
SSAlex Cintron 93GCraig Counsell 26GMatt Kata 6G
2BJunior Spivey 98GMatt Kata 52GCarlos Baerga 15G
3BShea Hillenbrand 63GCraig Counsell 57GMatt Williams 42G
1BShea Hillenbrand 84GLyle Overbay 75GMark Grace 39G
STARTERSCurt Schilling 5.2WARBrandon Webb 4.0WARMiguel Batista 3.8WARRandy Johnson 2.5WARElmer Dessens 2.4WAR
CRod Barajas 79GChad Moeller 76GRobby Hammock 36G
DHCarlos Baerga 6GMark Grace 1GRobby Hammock 1G
BULLPEN Matt Mantei 29svOscar Villarreal 10hEddie Oropesa 10hJose Valverde 8hMike Myers 6hMike Koplove 5hStephen Randolph 2hDennys Reyes 2h
CRod Barajas 79 · Chad Moeller 76 · Robby Hammock 36
1BShea Hillenbrand 84 · Lyle Overbay 75 · Mark Grace 39
2BJunior Spivey 98 · Matt Kata 52 · Carlos Baerga 15
3BShea Hillenbrand 63 · Craig Counsell 57 · Matt Williams 42
SSAlex Cintron 93 · Craig Counsell 26 · Matt Kata 6
LFLuis Gonzalez 154 · Quinton McCracken 10 · Robby Hammock 5
CFSteve Finley 140 · Danny Bautista 18 · Quinton McCracken 16
RFRaúl Mondesi 139 · Danny Bautista 59 · Quinton McCracken 34
DHCarlos Baerga 6 · Mark Grace 1 · Robby Hammock 1
SPCurt Schilling 5.2 · Brandon Webb 4.0 · Miguel Batista 3.8 · Randy Johnson 2.5 · Elmer Dessens 2.4
BP Matt Mantei 29 · Oscar Villarreal 10 · Eddie Oropesa 10 · Jose Valverde 8 · Mike Myers 6 · Mike Koplove 5 · Stephen Randolph 2 · Dennys Reyes 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2003 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Curt Schilling 36 FA-elig 245.2 10.0 -0.7
Brandon Webb 24 294.0
Luis Gonzalez 35 FA-elig 1563.8 4.0 +2.8
Miguel Batista 32 FA-elig 363.8 3.4 +3.3
Steve Finley 38 FA-elig 1473.4 4.2 +1.7
Randy Johnson 39 FA-elig 182.5 15.0 -10.6
Elmer Dessens 32 FA-elig 362.4 3.0 +1.3
Alex Cintron 24 1172.1
Matt Mantei 29 FA-elig 501.5 7.1 -4.5
Jose Valverde 25 541.2
Oscar Villarreal 21 pre-arb 861.1 0.3 +1.7
Carlos Baerga 34 FA-elig 1050.9 0.5 +1.1
Lyle Overbay 26 pre-arb 860.9 0.3 +1.3
Chad Moeller 28 arb 780.8 0.3 +1.2
Raul Mondesi↔ NYY 32 FA-elig 450.8 4.1 -2.6
Robby Hammock 26 650.7
Scott Service↔ TOR 36 180.5
Byung-Hyun Kim↔ BOS 24 arb 70.5 0.4 +0.4
Mike Koplove 26 pre-arb 310.4 0.3 +0.3
Chris Capuano 24 90.3
Craig Counsell 32 FA-elig 890.3 2.5 -2.0
Felix Jose 38 180.3
Matt Kata 25 780.2
John Patterson 25 160.2
Eddie Oropesa 31 470.2
David Dellucci↔ NYY 29 FA-elig 700.1 0.7 -0.5
Edgar Gonzalez 20 90.1
Junior Spivey 28 pre-arb 1060.1 0.4 -0.3
Ricky Bottalico 33 20.0
Bret Prinz↔ NYY 26 pre-arb 10.0 0.1 -0.1
Luis Terrero 23 5-0.0
Andrew Good 23 16-0.0
Brady Raggio 30 10-0.0
Dennys Reyes↔ PIT 26 FA-elig 3-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Matt Williams 37 FA-elig 44-0.1 10.0 -10.1
Stephen Randolph 29 pre-arb 50-0.2 0.3 -0.6
Mike Myers 34 FA-elig 64-0.3 1.8 -2.3
Shea Hillenbrand↔ BOS 27 pre-arb 85-0.3 0.3 -0.8
Rod Barajas 27 arb 80-0.7 0.3 -1.5
Tony Womack↔ CHC 33 FA-elig 61-0.8 3.6 -5.0
Danny Bautista 31 FA-elig 88-0.9 3.0 -4.6
Mark Grace 39 FA-elig 66-1.0 1.8 -3.5
Quinton McCracken 32 FA-elig 115-1.8 1.8 -4.9

Key additions (new vs 2002)

PlayerfWAR
Brandon Webb4.0
Elmer Dessens2.4
Jose Valverde1.2
Oscar Villarreal1.1
Carlos Baerga0.9
Raul Mondesi0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2002)

Player2002 fWAR
Erubiel Durazo1.7
Damian Miller1.6
Brian Anderson1.4
Rick Helling1.4
Greg Colbrunn1.4
Mike Fetters0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2003 payroll
$79.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2003, 2003–2009. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Randy Johnson3915.000$15.0M$16.0MFREE AGENT$9.1M$15.1M
Curt Schilling3615.000$10.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Williams3716.000$10.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Mantei298.000$7.1M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Steve Finley3814.000$4.2M$4.5MFREE AGENT
Raul Mondesi3210.000$4.1MFREE AGENT
Luis Gonzalez3513.000$4.0M$8.2M$10.1M$10.7MFREE AGENT
Tony Womack3310.000$3.6MFREE AGENT
Miguel Batista3211.000$3.4MFREE AGENT$4.8M
Elmer Dessens327.000$3.0M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Danny Bautista3110.000$3.0M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Craig Counsell328.000$2.5MFREE AGENT$1.4M$1.8M
Mike Myers348.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Quinton McCracken328.000$1.8M$1.3M$750kFREE AGENT
Mark Grace3915.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
David Dellucci296.000$692kFREE AGENT
Carlos Baerga3413.000$500k$1.0MFREE AGENT
Dennys Reyes266.000$120kFREE AGENT
Ricky Bottalico339.000FREE AGENT
Scott Service3615.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (3)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Byung-Hyun Kim244.000$406kARB 3FREE AGENT
Rod Barajas274.000$300kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Moeller283.000$300kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Junior Spivey282.000$432kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oscar Villarreal210.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Randolph290.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Koplove262.000$300kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lyle Overbay262.000$300kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shea Hillenbrand272.000$258kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bret Prinz262.000$100kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felix Jose38
Brady Raggio30
John Patterson251.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Cintron242.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Oropesa312.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Valverde250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Terrero230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Capuano240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Good23
Brandon Webb240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robby Hammock260.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Kata250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edgar Gonzalez200.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Diamondbacks 2003; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3