LAD⇄ARI

LADLAD Dan Evans net −$14.4M net +0.3

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$14.4M realized received 2.2 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Elmer DessensP·33y·R/R

+$13.9M+$13.9M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$14.4M 2.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

1.54/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net +$14.4M net -0.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jereme MilonsCF·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#640 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.