ARI⇄COL

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net +$18.4M net +0.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2003 odds 9% → 11% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Watson

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net −$18.4M net -0.7

received −$12.0M−$12.8M ± $9M expected surplus · −$18.4M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2003 odds 3% → 2% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tony Womack2B/SS·33y·L/R

−$11.8M−$12.5M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$18.4M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.