MIL⇄ARI

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$86.4M net +18.0

received +$38.4M+$35.2M ± $63M expected surplus · +$67.2M realized received 14.9 ± 8 expected · 18.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2004 odds 2% → 5% (+3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Junior Spivey2B·29y·R/R

+$14.6M+$14.6M± $38M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 4.6± 5 exp WARrealized 1.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.25/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Lyle Overbay1B·27y·L/L

+$8.6M+$8.6M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$27.2M 2.9± 4 exp WARrealized 4.3

Prior

Composite #65.0 pedigree (Baseball America #65 (2003)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.60/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Chad MoellerC·29y·R/R

+$7.1M+$7.1M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$15.2M 2.6± 3 exp WARrealized -2.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.67/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.78 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Chris CapuanoP·25y·L/L

+$6.3M+$6.3M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$58.4M 2.1± 2 exp WARrealized 8.5

Prior

#238 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jorge De La RosaP·23y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Craig Counsell2B/3B/SS·33y·L/R

−$0.4M−$3.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized 5.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

1.09/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net −$86.4M net -18.0

received +$16.0M+$2.4M ± $36M expected surplus · −$19.2M realized received 4.8 ± 4 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2004 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Richie Sexson1B·29y·R/R

+$14.7M+$1.4M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$16.8M 3.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.9/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

2.01/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Noochie VarnerOF·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#303 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Shane NanceP·26y·L/L

−$1.1M−$1.1M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.5± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#327 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.