Rosternomics
BS

Bill Smith

General manager for the Twins (2008–2011).

Across the full 4-season sample, the measured profile stands out most for future-foundation returns (94th percentile), drafted-player surplus (91st percentile), and roster depth (77th percentile). The clearest contrast is net WAR per trade (5th percentile): the realized net WAR return per trade has ranked below most peers. Because the sample covers fewer than five seasons, those comparisons are descriptive rather than stable.

4 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

0 pennants · 2 playoff appearances · 332–318 (0.511)

Percentile Rankings

vs. execs with toyrs exp.
PoorAverageGreat
Trade Decision Quality
Roster Construction
Depth
7.2
Dead WAR
-6.0
Dead money %
34%
PoorAverageGreat
Talent Creation
Cheap-talent surplus
$17M
Drafted surplus
$19M
Traded-for surplus
$-0M
Int'l surplus
$-0M
Results & Efficiency
GM WAR
-1.3
TAB
-6.5
WAB
+10.5
$ / WAR
$2.2M
Net WAR/trade
-2.75

Overview

TeamRoleYear Pay
$M
Rel
Pay
Surp
$M
Surp
WAR
Dead
%
Cheap
$M
Draft
$M
Trd
$M
Int'l
$M
$ /
WAR
WAR Depth Dead
WAR
HG Trade Net/
Trd
FA R5 RFA PPA CPA WAB TAB W-L% POPenWS
Twins GM 2008 88–75 $56 63 +14 +6.3 43% +28 +25 +3 +0 $1.5M 32.2 7.0 -5.7 +2.4 -14.1 -7.06 -5.4 +0.0 +1.08 1.48 0.16 +11.4 +3.2 0.540
Twins GM 2009 87–76 $70 76 +14 +6.0 19% +28 +36 -9 +1 $1.8M 35.0 7.0 -4.7 +76.8 +8.6 +2.88 -21.2 +0.0 +0.05 2.68 0.21 +8.0 +3.8 0.534
Twins GM 2010 94–68 $90 98 +6 +2.6 27% +28 +13 +14 +0 $1.9M 44.9 11.0 -3.5 +10.4 -25.9 -6.46 +0.9 +2.8 +0.41 5.24 0.40 +12.3 +10.8 0.580
Twins GM 2011 63–99 $113 119 -81 -33.2 47% -15 +3 -10 -1 $5.1M 12.0 4.0 -10.2 -1.8 +1.2 +0.58 -20.1 +0.0 +1.82 -21.1 -24.3 0.389
Career total (1985+ data) $328 89 -47 -18.4 34% +17 +19 -0 -0 $2.2M 124.0 7.2 -6.0 +87.8 -30.2 -2.75 -45.7 +2.8 +0.72 3.77 0.30 +10.5 -6.5 0.511 2

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+87.8
Trade-30.2
Free agency-45.7
Rule 5 / minor draft+2.8
Sourcing mix: 75% draft · 17% FA · 6% trade · 2% R5

Trades

Trades made — 14 deals credited to Bill Smith, best expected value first; surplus is realized value in $M

2008 · NYM / MIN
NYM · Omar Minaya +$72.8M
Johan Santana
MIN · Bill Smith −$72.8M
Carlos Gómez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey
NYM came out ahead by $72.8M
2009 · OAK / MIN
OAK · Billy Beane +$1.6M
Tyler Ladendorf
MIN · Bill Smith −$1.6M
Orlando Cabrera
OAK came out ahead by $1.6M
2009 · MIN / ARI
MIN · Bill Smith +$8.8M
Jon Rauch
ARI · Josh Byrnes −$8.8M
Kevin Mulvey
MIN came out ahead by $8.8M
2010 · WSN / MIN
WSN · Michael Rizzo +$72.0M
Wilson Ramos, Joe Testa
MIN · Bill Smith −$72.0M
Matt Capps
WSN came out ahead by $72.0M
2010 · MIN / COL
MIN · Bill Smith +$0.8M
Paul Bargas
COL · Daniel O'Dowd −$0.8M
José Morales
MIN came out ahead by $0.8M
2011 · MIN / DET
MIN · Bill Smith +$23.2M
Cole Nelson, Lester Oliveros
DET · Dave Dombrowski −$23.2M
Delmon Young
MIN came out ahead by $23.2M
2010 · BAL / MIN
BAL · Andy MacPhail +$6.4M
J. J. Hardy, Brendan Harris
MIN · Bill Smith −$6.4M
Jim Hoey, Brett Jacobson
BAL came out ahead by $6.4M
2011 · COL / MIN
COL · Daniel O'Dowd +$0.0M
Kevin Slowey
MIN · Bill Smith +$0.0M
Daniel Turpen
Even trade
2008 · MIN / SEA
MIN · Bill Smith +$1.6M
Jair Fernandez
SEA · Lee Pelekoudas −$1.6M
R. A. Dickey
MIN came out ahead by $1.6M
2009 · MIN / BOS
MIN · Bill Smith +$1.6M
Chris Province
BOS · Theo Epstein −$1.6M
Boof Bonser
MIN came out ahead by $1.6M
2010 · ANA / MIN
ANA · Tony Reagins +$13.6M
Loek van Mil
MIN · Bill Smith −$13.6M
Brian Fuentes
ANA came out ahead by $13.6M
2008 · TEX / MIN
TEX · Jon Daniels +$4.0M
Mark Hamburger
MIN · Bill Smith −$4.0M
Eddie Guardado
TEX came out ahead by $4.0M
2009 · MIN / CLE
MIN · Bill Smith +$46.4M
Carl Pavano
CLE · Mark Shapiro −$46.4M
Yohan Pino
MIN came out ahead by $46.4M
2009 · MIL / MIN
MIL · Douglas Melvin +$204.8M
Carlos Gómez
MIN · Bill Smith −$204.8M
J. J. Hardy
MIL came out ahead by $204.8M

Players acquired — 62 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr RFA PPA CPA
Brian Dozier 2B MIN Draft 2009 6 +22.7 +3.8
Max Kepler OF MIN Intl FA 2009 9 +18.5 +2.1
Jorge Polanco 2B/SS MIN Intl FA 2009 10 +15.4 +1.5
Kyle Gibson P MIN Draft 2009 6 +13.0 +2.2
Eddie Rosario OF MIN Draft 2010 6 +11.2 +1.9
Miguel Sanó 1B/3B MIN Intl FA 2009 7 +8.2 +1.2
Carl Pavano P MIN Trade 2009 4 +6.0 +1.5 -0.30 4.4% 0.35%
Nick Punto 2B/3B/SS MIN Free agency 2008 7 +5.7 +0.8 1.9% 0.15%
Josh Willingham OF MIN Free agency 2011 3 +4.2 +1.4 0.2% 0.13%
Carlos Gómez OF MIN Trade 2008 2 +3.7 +1.8 +1.08 3.9% 0.42%
Jim Thome 1B/DH MIN Free agency 2010 2 +3.1 +1.5 16.2% 1.20%
Orlando Hudson 2B MIN Free agency 2010 1 +3.0 +3.0 16.1% 1.19%
Scott Diamond P MIN Rule 5 2010 3 +2.8 +0.9
Aaron Hicks OF MIN Draft 2008 3 +2.5 +0.8
J. J. Hardy SS MIN Trade 2009 1 +2.1 +2.1 -0.89 11.2% 0.85%
Jared Burton P MIN Free agency 2011 3 +1.9 +0.6 0.1% 0.03%
Joe Crede 3B MIN Free agency 2009 1 +1.7 +1.7 4.6% 0.37%
Jamey Carroll 2B/3B MIN Free agency 2011 1 +1.6 +1.6 0.1% 0.06%
Jason Repko OF MIN Free agency 2010 1 +1.6 +1.6 8.2% 0.65%
Jon Rauch P MIN Trade 2009 2 +1.5 +0.7 -0.30 0.6% 0.05%
Sam Deduno P MIN Free agency 2011 1 +1.0 +1.0 0.1% 0.04%
Liván Hernández P MIN Trade 2008 1 +1.0 +1.0 1.4% 0.15%
Kennys Vargas 1B/DH MIN Intl FA 2009 3 +0.8 +0.3
Fernando Romero P MIN Intl FA 2011 1 +0.6 +0.6
Orlando Cabrera SS MIN Trade 2009 1 +0.5 +0.5 -0.30 1.4% 0.12%
Craig Breslow P MIN Trade 2008 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.3% 0.14%
Aaron Thompson P MIN Free agency 2011 2 +0.3 +0.2 0.1% 0.01%
Brian Fuentes P MIN Trade 2010 1 +0.3 +0.3 +0.00 1.3% 0.11%
Adam Everett SS MIN Trade 2008 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.4% 0.05%
Pat Dean P MIN Draft 2010 1 +0.1 +0.1
Ryan O'Rourke P MIN Draft 2010 2 +0.1 +0.1
Randy Ruiz DH MIN Trade 2008 1 +0.1 +0.1
Howie Clark OF MIN Trade 2008 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.2% 0.02%
Eric Hacker P MIN Free agency 2010 -0.0
Chuck James P MIN Free agency 2010 -0.0
Ryan Jorgensen C MIN Free agency 2008 -0.0
Bobby Keppel P MIN Free agency 2008 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1% 0.01%
Ron Mahay P MIN Free agency 2009 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1% 0.01%
Wilkin Ramírez OF MIN Free agency 2011 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0% 0.00%
P. J. Walters P MIN Free agency 2011 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.0% 0.00%
Logan Darnell P MIN Draft 2010 -0.1
Justin Huber 1B/OF MIN Free agency 2009 -0.1
Luis Perdomo P MIN Free agency 2011 -0.1
René Rivera C MIN Free agency 2010 -0.1
Randy Rosario P MIN Intl FA 2010 -0.1
Michael Tonkin P MIN Draft 2008 3 -0.1 -0.0
Jason Wheeler P MIN Draft 2011 -0.1
Brendan Harris SS MIN Trade 2008 1 -0.1 -0.1 -4.86 1.5% 0.16%
Sean Burroughs 3B MIN Free agency 2011 -0.2
Alex Wimmers P MIN Draft 2010 -0.2
A. J. Achter P MIN Draft 2010 -0.3
Matt Carson OF MIN Free agency 2011 -0.3
Niko Goodrum 2B/SS MIN Draft 2010 -0.3
Steve Holm C MIN Free agency 2010 -0.3
Felix Jorge P MIN Intl FA 2011 -0.3
Matt Capps P MIN Free agency 2011 1 -0.4 -0.4 2.8% 0.23%
Philip Humber P MIN Trade 2008 -0.4 +1.08
Phil Dumatrait P MIN Free agency 2010 -0.6
Delmon Young OF MIN Trade 2010 1 -0.9 -0.9 8.8% 0.69%
Chris Herrmann C/OF MIN Draft 2009 -1.9
Tsuyoshi Nishioka SS MIN Draft 2011 -2.0
Ryan Doumit C MIN Free agency 2011 -2.5

Trade-side columns: RFA is playoff-readiness percentage points added to the future roster foundation. It grades the franchise's entire side of a trade, so the same score repeats for every player acquired in that package. PPA/CPA remain player-level arrival-year probability points.

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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