RRosternomics
BS

Bill Smith

General manager for the Twins (2008–2011).

4 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs2
Record332–318
Win %0.511
-1.3GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±6.1110th/195 execs
7.2Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)40th/195 execs
-6.0Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)141st/195 execs
34%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)95th/195 execs
$17MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track86th/195 execs
$19MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)18th/195 execs
$-0MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade164th/195 execs
$-0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees144th/195 execs
-6.3TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total98th/195 execs
+10.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)48th/195 execs
3.75Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)20th/195 execs
-47Roster surplus $M104th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Twins GM 2008–2011 4 +10.7 +2.68 -6.3 -18.4 +87.9 -30.2 -45.7 +2.8 3.75 0.511 2 -47
Career total (1985+ data) 4 +10.7 -6.3 -18.4 +87.9 -30.2 -45.7 +2.8 3.75 0.511 2 -47

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+87.9
Trade-30.2
Free agency-45.7
Rule 5 / minor draft+2.8
Sourcing mix: 75% draft · 17% FA · 6% trade · 2% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Bill Smith's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 64 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Brian Dozier 2B MIN Draft 2009 6 +22.7 +3.8
Max Kepler OF MIN Intl FA 2009 9 +18.5 +2.1
Jorge Polanco 2B/SS MIN Intl FA 2009 10 +15.4 +1.5
Kyle Gibson P MIN Draft 2009 6 +13.0 +2.2
Eddie Rosario OF MIN Draft 2010 6 +11.2 +1.9
Miguel Sanó 1B/3B MIN Intl FA 2009 7 +8.2 +1.2
Carl Pavano P MIN Trade 2009 4 +6.0 +1.5 4.4
Nick Punto 2B/3B/SS MIN Free agency 2008 7 +5.7 +0.8 1.9
Josh Willingham OF MIN Free agency 2011 3 +4.2 +1.4 0.2
Carlos Gómez OF MIN Trade 2008 2 +3.7 +1.8 3.9
Jim Thome 1B/DH MIN Free agency 2010 2 +3.1 +1.5 16.2
Orlando Hudson 2B MIN Free agency 2010 1 +3.0 +3.0 15.9
Scott Diamond P MIN Rule 5 2010 3 +2.8 +0.9
Aaron Hicks OF MIN Draft 2008 3 +2.5 +0.8
J. J. Hardy SS MIN Trade 2009 1 +2.1 +2.1 11.2
Jared Burton P MIN Free agency 2011 3 +1.9 +0.6 0.1
Joe Crede 3B MIN Free agency 2009 1 +1.7 +1.7 4.7
Jamey Carroll 2B/3B MIN Free agency 2011 1 +1.6 +1.6 0.1
Jason Repko OF MIN Free agency 2010 1 +1.6 +1.6 8.2
Jon Rauch P MIN Trade 2009 2 +1.5 +0.7 0.6
Sam Deduno P MIN Free agency 2011 1 +1.0 +1.0 0.1
Liván Hernández P MIN Trade 2008 1 +1.0 +1.0 1.4
Kennys Vargas 1B/DH MIN Intl FA 2009 3 +0.8 +0.3
Fernando Romero P MIN Intl FA 2011 1 +0.6 +0.6
Orlando Cabrera SS MIN Trade 2009 1 +0.5 +0.5 1.5
Craig Breslow P MIN Trade 2008 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.3
Aaron Thompson P MIN Free agency 2011 2 +0.3 +0.2 0.1
Brian Fuentes P MIN Trade 2010 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.3
Adam Everett SS MIN Trade 2008 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.4
Pat Dean P MIN Draft 2010 1 +0.1 +0.1
Ryan O'Rourke P MIN Draft 2010 2 +0.1 +0.1
Randy Ruiz DH MIN Trade 2008 1 +0.1 +0.1
Howie Clark OF MIN Trade 2008 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.2
Eric Hacker P MIN Free agency 2010 -0.0
Chuck James P MIN Free agency 2010 -0.0
Ryan Jorgensen C MIN Free agency 2008 -0.0
Bobby Keppel P MIN Free agency 2008 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Ron Mahay P MIN Free agency 2009 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Wilkin Ramírez OF MIN Free agency 2011 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
P. J. Walters P MIN Free agency 2011 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.0
Kevin Mulvey P MIN Trade 2009 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Logan Darnell P MIN Draft 2010 -0.1
Justin Huber 1B/OF MIN Free agency 2009 -0.1
Luis Perdomo P MIN Free agency 2011 -0.1
René Rivera C MIN Free agency 2010 -0.1
Randy Rosario P MIN Intl FA 2010 -0.1
Michael Tonkin P MIN Draft 2008 3 -0.1 -0.0
Jason Wheeler P MIN Draft 2011 -0.1
Brendan Harris SS MIN Trade 2008 1 -0.1 -0.1 1.5
Lester Oliveros P MIN Trade 2011 2 -0.1 -0.0 0.0
Sean Burroughs 3B MIN Free agency 2011 -0.2
Alex Wimmers P MIN Draft 2010 -0.2
A. J. Achter P MIN Draft 2010 -0.3
Matt Carson OF MIN Free agency 2011 -0.3
Niko Goodrum 2B/SS MIN Draft 2010 -0.3
Steve Holm C MIN Free agency 2010 -0.3
Felix Jorge P MIN Intl FA 2011 -0.3
Matt Capps P MIN Free agency 2011 1 -0.4 -0.4 2.8
Philip Humber P MIN Trade 2008 -0.4
Phil Dumatrait P MIN Free agency 2010 -0.6
Delmon Young OF MIN Trade 2010 1 -0.9 -0.9 8.9
Chris Herrmann C/OF MIN Draft 2009 -1.9
Tsuyoshi Nishioka SS MIN Draft 2011 -2.0
Ryan Doumit C MIN Free agency 2011 -2.5

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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