RRosternomics

Twins MIN

GM: Bill Smith

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.63× league · TAB +3.4
+3.4TAB — talent above budget10th/30
+11.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)4th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/30
-5.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
43%dead money %20th/30
0.540win %10th/30
32.2roster fWAR19th/30
+14surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$56Mpayroll $M25th/30

Roster

CFCarlos Gómez 151GDenard Span 19GCraig Monroe 7G
LFDelmon Young 151GJason Kubel 18GJason Pridie 3G
RFDenard Span 85GMichael Cuddyer 58GJason Kubel 32G
SSNick Punto 61GBrendan Harris 55GAdam Everett 44G
2BAlexi Casilla 95GBrendan Harris 39GNick Punto 26G
3BBrian Buscher 64GBrendan Harris 34GMatt Tolbert 17G
1BJustin Morneau 155GMike Lamb 9GBrian Buscher 6G
STARTERSScott Baker 3.4WARKevin Slowey 2.7WARNick Blackburn 1.9WARFrancisco Liriano 1.4WARBoof Bonser 0.9WAR
CJoe Mauer 139GMike Redmond 30GRyan Jorgensen 2G
DHJason Kubel 83GCraig Monroe 36GRandy Ruiz 17G
BULLPEN Joe Nathan 39svEddie Guardado 25hMatt Guerrier 20hDennys Reyes 17hJesse Crain 17hPat Neshek 6hCraig Breslow 5hBobby Korecky 0h
CJoe Mauer 139 · Mike Redmond 30 · Ryan Jorgensen 2
1BJustin Morneau 155 · Mike Lamb 9 · Brian Buscher 6
2BAlexi Casilla 95 · Brendan Harris 39 · Nick Punto 26
3BBrian Buscher 64 · Brendan Harris 34 · Matt Tolbert 17
SSNick Punto 61 · Brendan Harris 55 · Adam Everett 44
LFDelmon Young 151 · Jason Kubel 18 · Jason Pridie 3
CFCarlos Gómez 151 · Denard Span 19 · Craig Monroe 7
RFDenard Span 85 · Michael Cuddyer 58 · Jason Kubel 32
DHJason Kubel 83 · Craig Monroe 36 · Randy Ruiz 17
SPScott Baker 3.4 · Kevin Slowey 2.7 · Nick Blackburn 1.9 · Francisco Liriano 1.4 · Boof Bonser 0.9
BP Joe Nathan 39 · Eddie Guardado 25 · Matt Guerrier 20 · Dennys Reyes 17 · Jesse Crain 17 · Pat Neshek 6 · Craig Breslow 5 · Bobby Korecky 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2008 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Joe Mauer 25 arb 1466.5 6.2 +8.6
Scott Baker 26 arb 283.4 0.4 +7.2
Justin Morneau 27 arb 1633.3 8.4 -0.8
Denard Span 24 933.2 0.4 +6.9
Carlos Gómez 22 pre-arb 1532.7 0.4 +5.7
Kevin Slowey 24 pre-arb 282.7 0.4 +5.7
Nick Punto 30 FA-elig 992.7 2.4 +3.6
Nick Blackburn 26 pre-arb 331.9 0.4 +4.1
Joe Nathan 33 FA-elig 681.8 6.0 -1.9
Alexi Casilla 23 981.5
Francisco Liriano 24 141.4 0.4 +2.7
Brendan Harris 27 arb 1301.0 0.4 +1.8
Livan Hernandez↔ COL 33 FA-elig 231.0 3.7 -1.5
Boof Bonser 26 pre-arb 470.9 0.4 +1.6
Craig Breslow↔ CLE 27 arb 420.9 0.3 +1.7
Jason Kubel 26 arb 1410.5 1.3 -0.1
Jesse Crain 26 arb 660.5 1.1 +0.1
Dennys Reyes 31 FA-elig 750.4 1.0 -0.2
Brian Buscher 27 700.3
Matt Tolbert 26 pre-arb 410.3 0.4 +0.3
Glen Perkins 25 260.3 0.4 +0.3
Adam Everett 31 FA-elig 480.3 2.8 -2.1
Jose Mijares 23 100.2
Howie Clark 34 40.1
Pat Neshek 27 pre-arb 150.1 0.4 -0.1
Randy Ruiz 30 220.1
Eddie Guardado↔ TEX 37 FA-elig 90.0 0.3 -0.2
Matt Macri 26 180.0
Ryan Jorgensen 29 2-0.0
Bobby Korecky 28 16-0.1
Mike Redmond 37 FA-elig 38-0.3 0.9 -1.5
Michael Cuddyer 29 FA-elig 71-0.3 5.9 -6.5
Philip Humber 25 5-0.3
Jason Pridie 24 10-0.3
Juan Rincon↔ CLE 29 FA-elig 24-0.5 1.3 -2.3
Craig Monroe 31 FA-elig 58-0.6 3.8 -5.3
Matt Guerrier 29 arb 76-0.7 0.9 -2.6
Brian Bass↔ BAL 26 pre-arb 44-0.7 0.4 -2.0
Delmon Young 22 pre-arb 152-0.9 1.4 -3.5
Mike Lamb↔ MIL 32 FA-elig 81-0.9 3.1 -5.2

Key additions (new vs 2007)

PlayerfWAR
Denard Span3.2
Carlos Gómez2.7
Francisco Liriano1.4
Brendan Harris1.0
Livan Hernandez1.0
Craig Breslow0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2007)

Player2007 fWAR
Johan Santana4.2
Jason Bartlett3.3
Torii Hunter3.2
Carlos Silva2.5
Luis Castillo1.4
Matt Garza1.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2008 payroll
$55.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2008, 2008–2014. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Joe Nathan339.000$6.0M$11.2MFREE AGENT$11.2M
Michael Cuddyer297.000$5.9M$7.7M$9.4M$10.5MFREE AGENT
Craig Monroe317.000$3.8MFREE AGENT
Livan Hernandez3312.000$3.7MFREE AGENT
Mike Lamb328.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Adam Everett317.000$2.8MFREE AGENT
Nick Punto307.000$2.4M$4.0M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Juan Rincon297.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Dennys Reyes3111.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Redmond3710.000$950k$950kFREE AGENT
Eddie Guardado3715.000$281kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Justin Morneau275.000$8.4MFREE AGENT
Joe Mauer254.000$6.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Kubel264.000$1.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Crain264.000$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Guerrier294.000$950kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Harris274.000$431kARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Baker263.000$422kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Liriano243.000$410kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Breslow273.000$336kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Delmon Young222.000$1.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Neshek272.000$435kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Boof Bonser262.000$432kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Slowey241.000$395kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Gómez221.000$395kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Glen Perkins252.000$390kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Denard Span240.000$390kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Tolbert260.000$390kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Blackburn261.000$390kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Bass260.000$350kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Jorgensen29
Howie Clark34
Brian Buscher271.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Korecky28
Jason Pridie240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Ruiz300.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexi Casilla232.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Philip Humber252.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Macri26
Jose Mijares230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2008; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3