MIN⇄ANA

MINMIN Bill Smith net −$13.6M net +0.3

received −$4.8M−$14.4M ± $12M expected surplus · −$13.6M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2010 odds 68% → 69% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian FuentesP·34y·L/L

−$5.0M−$14.2M± $12M exp surplusrealized −$13.6M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.81/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Tony Reagins net +$13.6M net -0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $7M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2010 odds 4% → 4% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Loek van Mil

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.