RRosternomics
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Twins MIN

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GM: Bill Smith

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.19× league · TAB -24.4
-24.4TAB — talent above budget30th/30
-21.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)29th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars25th/30
-10.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag29th/30
47%dead money %23rd/30
0.389win %29th/30
12.0roster fWAR30th/30
-81surplus $M (value vs cost)30th/30
$113Mpayroll $M9th/30

Roster

CFBen Revere 89GDenard Span 67GJason Repko 5G
LFRene Tosoni 38GJason Repko 24GBen Revere 13G
RFMichael Cuddyer 77GJason Kubel 50GJason Repko 27G
SSTsuyoshi Nishioka 60GTrevor Plouffe 45GAlexi Casilla 36G
2BAlexi Casilla 56GLuke Hughes 37GMatt Tolbert 36G
3BDanny Valencia 147GLuke Hughes 13GMatt Tolbert 6G
1BJustin Morneau 56GMichael Cuddyer 46GLuke Hughes 36G
STARTERSScott Baker 2.6WARCarl Pavano 2.3WARBrian Duensing 1.2WARAnthony Swarzak 0.7WARFrancisco Liriano 0.7WAR
CDrew Butera 93GJoe Mauer 52GRené Rivera 44G
DHJason Kubel 37GJoe Mauer 14GJustin Morneau 13G
BULLPEN★ Matt Capps 15svGlen Perkins 17hAlex Burnett 10hJose Mijares 10hJoe Nathan 8hPhil Dumatrait 4hJim Hoey 2hLester Oliveros 1h
CDrew Butera 93 · Joe Mauer 52 · René Rivera 44
1BJustin Morneau 56 · Michael Cuddyer 46 · Luke Hughes 36
2BAlexi Casilla 56 · Luke Hughes 37 · Matt Tolbert 36
3BDanny Valencia 147 · Luke Hughes 13 · Matt Tolbert 6
SSTsuyoshi Nishioka 60 · Trevor Plouffe 45 · Alexi Casilla 36
LFRene Tosoni 38 · Jason Repko 24 · Ben Revere 13
CFBen Revere 89 · Denard Span 67 · Jason Repko 5
RFMichael Cuddyer 77 · Jason Kubel 50 · Jason Repko 27
DHJason Kubel 37 · Joe Mauer 14 · Justin Morneau 13
SPScott Baker 2.6 · Carl Pavano 2.3 · Brian Duensing 1.2 · Anthony Swarzak 0.7 · Francisco Liriano 0.7
BP★ Matt Capps 15 · Glen Perkins 17 · Alex Burnett 10 · Jose Mijares 10 · Joe Nathan 8 · Phil Dumatrait 4 · Jim Hoey 2 · Lester Oliveros 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Scott Baker 29 FA-elig 232.6 5.0 +1.4
Michael Cuddyer 32 FA-elig 1392.5 10.5 -4.5
Carl Pavano 35 FA-elig 332.3 8.0 -2.3
Joe Mauer 28 FA-elig 822.3 23.0 -17.4
Denard Span 27 arb 701.9 1.0 +3.6
Glen Perkins 28 arb 651.6 0.7 +3.3
Ben Revere 23 pre-arb 1171.5 0.4 +3.3
Brian Duensing 28 pre-arb 331.2 0.5 +2.5
Alexi Casilla 26 arb 971.1 0.9 +1.8
Chris Parmelee 23 pre-arb 211.1 0.4 +2.2
Jason Kubel 29 FA-elig 990.8 5.2 -3.4
Anthony Swarzak 25 – 270.7 – –
Francisco Liriano 27 FA-elig 260.7 4.3 -2.6
Jim Thome↔ CLE 40 FA-elig 710.4 2.3 -1.3
Scott Diamond 24 pre-arb 70.3 0.4 +0.4
Kevin Slowey 27 arb 140.3 2.7 -1.9
Luke Hughes 26 – 960.3 – –
Liam Hendriks 22 – 40.2 0.1 +0.5
Nick Blackburn 29 arb 260.1 3.0 -2.6
Lester Oliveros↔ DET 23 pre-arb 100.1 0.2 -0.0
Brian Dinkelman 27 – 230.0 – –
Anthony Slama 27 – 20.0 – –
Chuck James 29 – 8-0.0 – –
Eric Hacker 28 – 2-0.0 – –
Jeff Manship 26 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Jason Repko 30 FA-elig 67-0.0 0.6 -0.7
Joe Nathan 36 FA-elig 48-0.1 11.2 -11.4
Kyle Waldrop 25 – 7-0.1 – –
René Rivera 27 – 45-0.1 – –
Joe Benson 23 pre-arb 21-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Alex Burnett 23 – 66-0.2 – –
Steve Holm 31 – 6-0.3 – –
Jose Mijares 26 arb 58-0.4 0.4 -1.3
Delmon Young↔ DET 25 arb 84-0.4 3.6 -4.6
Dusty Hughes 29 pre-arb 15-0.4 0.4 -1.4
Matt Capps 27 FA-elig 69-0.4 7.2 -8.1
Jim Hoey 28 pre-arb 26-0.4 0.4 -1.4
Danny Valencia 26 pre-arb 154-0.6 0.4 -1.8
Matt Tolbert 29 arb 87-0.6 0.4 -1.9
Phil Dumatrait 29 – 45-0.6 – –
Rene Tosoni 24 – 60-0.7 – –
Justin Morneau 30 FA-elig 69-0.7 15.0 -16.7
Trevor Plouffe 25 pre-arb 81-0.8 0.4 -2.5
Tsuyoshi Nishioka 26 pre-arb 68-1.5 3.0 -6.7
Drew Butera 27 pre-arb 93-1.7 0.4 -4.6

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Chris Parmelee1.1
Anthony Swarzak0.7
Scott Diamond0.3
Liam Hendriks0.2
Lester Oliveros0.1
Brian Dinkelman0.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Orlando Hudson3.0
J.J. Hardy2.1
Nick Punto1.4
Jon Rauch1.3
Jesse Crain0.7
Brian Fuentes0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$113.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Joe Mauer287.000$23.0M$23.0M$23.0M$23.0M$23.0M$23.0M$23.0M
Justin Morneau306.168$15.0M$14.0M$11.7MFREE AGENT
Joe Nathan369.120$11.2MFREE AGENT
Michael Cuddyer327.157$10.5MFREE AGENT
Carl Pavano3512.161$8.0M$8.5MFREE AGENT
Jason Kubel296.009$5.2MFREE AGENT$2.0M
Jim Thome4018.042$2.3MFREE AGENT
Glen Perkins2810.010$700k$1.6M$2.5M$4.0M$4.7M$6.3M$6.5M
Chuck James296.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Matt Capps275.017$7.2MFREE AGENT
Scott Baker294.128$5.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Liriano274.104$4.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Delmon Young254.034$3.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Blackburn293.017$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Slowey275.140$2.7MFREE AGENT
Alexi Casilla263.038$865kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Repko303.168$600kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Tolbert293.000$425kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Dumatrait294.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Holm313.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Tsuyoshi Nishioka260.000$3.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Denard Span272.111$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Duensing281.104$462kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Mijares262.024$445kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Valencia260.123$438kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dusty Hughes292.000$429kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Butera271.000$429kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Manship260.127$419kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Plouffe250.058$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Hoey282.008$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Benson230.023$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Parmelee232.058$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Diamond241.161$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Revere230.029$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lester Oliveros230.091$218kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Liam Hendriks220.000$52kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
René Rivera270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Waldrop250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Hacker28–—
Rene Tosoni24–—
Anthony Slama27–—
Anthony Swarzak250.038—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Hughes260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Burnett231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Dinkelman27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.