Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1 | 1.1 | CLE | Travis Bazzana | IF 2B | 22 COLL | L/R | 5'11" | 199 | $8.95M | 44% | Paul Gillispie | Chris Antonetti | 0.8 | -0.8 | 40.2±3.9 |
| 2024 | 2 | 1.2 | CIN | Chase Burns | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 210 | $9.25M | 52% | Jeff Graupe | Nick Krall | 2.9 | +0.8 | 17.9±3.9 |
| 2024 | 3 | 1.3 | COL | Charlie Condon | OF OF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 216 | $9.25M | 51% | Danny Montgomery | Bill Schmidt | 0.0 | -1.4 | 23.5±4.1 |
| 2024 | 4 | 1.4 | OAK | Nick Kurtz | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'5" | 240 | $7.0M | 41% | Eric Kubota | David Forst | 6.6 | +5.0 | 21.5±4.1 |
| 2024 | 5 | 1.5 | CHW | Hagen Smith | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 235 | $8.0M | 49% | Mike Shirley | Chris Getz | 0.0 | -0.8 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2024 | 6 | 1.6 | KCR | Jac Caglianone | OF RF | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'4" | 250 | $7.5M | 51% | Dan Ontiveros | J.J. Picollo | -0.9 | -2.4 | 23.5±4.1 |
| 2024 | 7 | 1.7 | STL | JJ Wetherholt | IF 2B | 22 COLL | L/R | 5'9" | 190 | $6.9M | 59% | Randy Flores | John Mozeliak | 2.1 | +1.1 | 14.8±4.0 |
| 2024 | 8 | 1.8 | ANA | Christian Moore | IF 2B | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 210 | $5.0M | 36% | Tim McIlvaine | Perry Minasian | 0.2 | -0.3 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 2024 | 9 | 1.9 | PIT | Konnor Griffin | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 222 | $6.53M | 42% | Joe Dellicarri | Ben Cherington | 1.0 | +0.9 | 14.3±3.9 |
| 2024 | 10 | 1.10 | WSN | Seaver King | IF SS | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 195 | $5.15M | 32% | Brad Ciolek | Michael Rizzo | 0.0 | -0.5 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 2024 | 11 | 1.11 | DET | Bryce Rainer | IF SS | 19 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 195 | $5.8M | 42% | Mark Conner | Scott Harris | 0.0 | -0.0 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2024 | 12 | 1.12 | BOS | Braden Montgomery | OF OF | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'2" | 220 | $5.0M | 41% | Devin Pearson | Craig Breslow | 0.0 | -0.2 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 2024 | 13 | 1.13 | SFG | James Tibbs III | OF RF | 22 COLL | L/L | 5'11" | 201 | $4.75M | 53% | Michael Holmes | Farhan Zaidi | 0.0 | -0.2 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 2024 | 14 | 1.14 | CHC | Cam Smith | OF RF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 224 | $5.07M | 44% | Dan Kantrovitz | Jed Hoyer | 1.7 | +1.4 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 2024 | 15 | 1.15 | SEA | Jurrangelo Cijntje | P P | 21 COLL | S/S | 5'11" | 200 | $4.88M | 47% | Scott Hunter | Jerry Dipoto | 0.0 | -0.8 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2024 | 16 | 1.16 | MIA | PJ Morlando | OF OF | 19 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 198 | $3.4M | 30% | Frankie Piliere | Peter Bendix | 0.0 | — | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2024 | 17 | 1.17 | MIL | Braylon Payne | OF OF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 186 | $3.44M | 28% | Tod Johnson | Matt Arnold | 0.0 | — | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2024 | 18 | 1.18 | TBR | Theo Gillen | OF OF | 19 HS | L/R | 6'2" | 195 | $4.37M | 45% | Chuck Ricci | Erik Neander | 0.0 | — | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2024 | 19 | 1.19 | NYM | Carson Benge | OF RF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 184 | $4.0M | 36% | Drew Toussaint | David Stearns | 0.5 | +0.4 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2024 | 20 | 1.20 | TOR | Trey Yesavage | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 225 | $4.18M | 40% | Shane Farrell | Ross Atkins | 1.6 | +1.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2024 | 21 | 1.21 | MIN | Kaelen Culpepper | IF SS | 22 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 185 | $3.93M | 30% | Sean Johnson | Derek Falvey | 0.0 | -0.2 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2024 | 22 | 1.22 | BAL | Vance Honeycutt | OF OF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 205 | $4.0M | 32% | Matt Blood | Mike Elias | 0.0 | -0.1 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2024 | 23 | 1.23 | LAD | Kellon Lindsey | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 175 | $3.3M | 44% | Dave Finley | Andrew Friedman | 0.0 | -0.0 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | 1.24 | ATL | Cam Caminiti | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 195 | $3.56M | 38% | Ronit Shah | Alex Anthopoulos | 0.0 | -0.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | 1.25 | SDP | Kash Mayfield | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 200 | $3.44M | 31% | — | AJ Preller | 0.0 | -0.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | 1.26 | NYY | Ben Hess | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 255 | $2.75M | 28% | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | 0.0 | -0.1 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | 1.27 | PHI | Dante Nori | OF OF | 20 COLL | L/L | 5'9" | 190 | $2.5M | 28% | Brian Barber | Dave Dombrowski | 0.0 | -0.1 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2024 | 28 | 1.28 | HOU | Walker Janek | C C | 22 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 190 | $3.13M | 42% | Deric Ladnier | Dana Brown | 0.0 | -0.0 | 2.0±3.8 |
| 2024 | 29 | 1.29 | ARI | Slade Caldwell | OF OF | 18 HS | L/L | 5'9" | 182 | $3.09M | 23% | Ian Rebhan | Mike Hazen | 0.0 | — | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2024 | 30 | 1.30 | TEX | Malcolm Moore | C C | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 216 | $3.0M | 36% | Kip Fagg | Chris Young | 0.0 | -0.0 | 2.0±3.8 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.