RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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President of baseball ops: Nick Krall

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.6× league · TAB -1.7
-1.7TAB — talent above budget21st/30
+1.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)14th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars19th/30
-7.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/30
54%dead money %24th/30
0.475win %22nd/30
26.1roster fWAR24th/30
+12surplus $M (value vs cost)13th/30
$97Mpayroll $M24th/30

Roster

CFTJ Friedl 82GStuart Fairchild 59GWill Benson 43G
LFSpencer Steer 102GWill Benson 55GJacob Hurtubise 20G
RFJake Fraley 97GWill Benson 45GAmed Rosario 26G
SSElly De La Cruz 160GSantiago Espinal 6GSpencer Steer 1G
2BJonathan India 133GSantiago Espinal 33GAmed Rosario 27G
3BSantiago Espinal 67GNoelvi Marte 55GJeimer Candelario 54G
1BTy France 133GDominic Smith 82GSpencer Steer 63G
STARTERSHunter Greene 3.7WARNick Martinez 3.4WARNick Lodolo 2.0WARAndrew Abbott 1.0WARRhett Lowder 0.9WAR
CTyler Stephenson 127GLuke Maile 49GAustin Wynns 6G
DHJeimer Candelario 32GNick Martini 31GAmed Rosario 20G
BULLPEN★ Alexis Díaz 28svFernando Cruz 23hJustin Wilson 11hSam Moll 11hEmilio Pagán 7hTony Santillan 4hBrent Suter 2hBuck Farmer 1h
CTyler Stephenson 127 · Luke Maile 49 · Austin Wynns 6
1BTy France 133 · Dominic Smith 82 · Spencer Steer 63
2BJonathan India 133 · Santiago Espinal 33 · Amed Rosario 27
3BSantiago Espinal 67 · Noelvi Marte 55 · Jeimer Candelario 54
SSElly De La Cruz 160 · Santiago Espinal 6 · Spencer Steer 1
LFSpencer Steer 102 · Will Benson 55 · Jacob Hurtubise 20
CFTJ Friedl 82 · Stuart Fairchild 59 · Will Benson 43
RFJake Fraley 97 · Will Benson 45 · Amed Rosario 26
DHJeimer Candelario 32 · Nick Martini 31 · Amed Rosario 20
SPHunter Greene 3.7 · Nick Martinez 3.4 · Nick Lodolo 2.0 · Andrew Abbott 1.0 · Rhett Lowder 0.9
BP★ Alexis Díaz 28 · Fernando Cruz 23 · Justin Wilson 11 · Sam Moll 11 · Emilio Pagán 7 · Tony Santillan 4 · Brent Suter 2 · Buck Farmer 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2024 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Elly De La Cruz 22 pre-arb 1606.6 0.7 +26.6
Hunter Greene 24 pre-arb 263.7 3.3 +12.0
Nick Martinez 33 FA-elig 423.4 14.0 +0.2
Tyler Stephenson 27 arb 1383.1 2.5 +10.2
Jonathan India 27 arb 1512.9 3.8 +8.4
Nick Lodolo 26 pre-arb 212.0 0.8 +7.6
Spencer Steer 26 pre-arb 1581.6 0.8 +5.9
Fernando Cruz 34 pre-arb 691.2 0.8 +4.2
Andrew Abbott 25 pre-arb 251.0 0.7 +3.5
Jake Fraley 29 arb 1161.0 2.1 +2.0
Rhett Lowder 22 – 60.9 0.1 +3.5
Jakob Junis↔ MIL 31 FA-elig 140.8 2.3 +1.0
Frankie Montas↔ MIL 31 FA-elig 190.8 8.9 -5.6
Tony Santillan 27 pre-arb 290.8 0.3 +2.8
Rece Hinds 23 – 240.7 0.2 +2.7
Buck Farmer 33 FA-elig 610.5 2.2 +0.0
Graham Ashcraft 26 pre-arb 150.5 0.8 +1.5
Emilio Pagán 33 FA-elig 380.5 8.0 -6.0
Sam Moll 32 FA-elig 480.4 0.8 +1.0
Austin Wynns 33 arb 70.4 0.9 +0.6
TJ Friedl 28 arb 850.3 0.8 +0.4
Stuart Fairchild 28 arb 940.3 0.8 +0.3
Alexis Díaz 27 pre-arb 600.2 0.8 +0.1
Brent Suter 34 FA-elig 470.2 2.5 -1.8
Justin Wilson 36 FA-elig 600.1 1.5 -1.0
Yosver Zulueta 26 – 120.1 0.1 +0.1
Alex Young↔ NYM 30 arb 30.0 0.2 -0.0
David Buchanan 35 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.2
Santiago Espinal 29 arb 1180.0 2.7 -2.6
Joey Wiemer↔ MIL 25 pre-arb 20.0 0.1 +0.1
Carson Spiers 26 pre-arb 220.0 0.7 -0.6
Ian Gibaut 30 arb 20.0 0.8 -0.7
Blake Dunn 25 pre-arb 190.0 0.7 -0.7
Evan Kravetz 27 – 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Casey Kelly 34 pre-arb 20.0 0.0 -0.0
Alan Busenitz 33 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Eric Yang 26 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Jacob Hurtubise 26 pre-arb 29-0.0 0.7 -0.9
Tejay Antone 30 arb 4-0.1 0.8 -1.0
Casey Legumina 27 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Conner Capel 27 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Livan Soto↔ BAL 24 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Edwin Rios 30 – 5-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Lyon Richardson 24 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.7 -1.1
Lucas Sims↔ BOS 30 FA-elig 43-0.1 2.1 -2.5
Dominic Smith↔ BOS 29 FA-elig 9-0.1 0.1 -0.7
Bubba Thompson 26 pre-arb 17-0.1 0.2 -0.7
Brandon Leibrandt 31 pre-arb 2-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Brandon Williamson 26 pre-arb 4-0.2 0.7 -1.5
Levi Jordan 28 – 7-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Jeimer Candelario 30 FA-elig 112-0.3 13.0 -14.1
Austin Slater↔ BAL 31 FA-elig 8-0.3 0.4 -1.6
Julian Aguiar 23 – 7-0.3 0.2 -1.5
Nick Martini 34 FA-elig 52-0.5 0.8 -2.8
Amed Rosario↔ LAD 28 FA-elig 22-0.5 0.3 -2.6
Ty France↔ SEA 29 arb 52-0.6 2.5 -4.8
Will Benson 26 pre-arb 128-0.6 0.8 -3.2
Mike Ford 31 arb 17-0.6 1.3 -3.9
Christian Encarnacion-Strand 24 pre-arb 29-0.7 0.7 -3.5
Luke Maile 33 FA-elig 55-0.7 3.0 -6.0
Noelvi Marte 22 pre-arb 66-1.4 0.7 -6.7

Key additions (new vs 2023)

PlayerfWAR
Nick Martinez3.4
Rhett Lowder0.9
Jakob Junis0.8
Frankie Montas0.8
Rece Hinds0.7
Emilio Pagán0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2023)

Player2023 fWAR
Ben Lively0.4
Derek Law0.3
Luke Weaver0.2
Luis Cessa0.2
Levi Stoudt0.1
Silvino Bracho0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2024 payroll
$96.6M
2025 guaranteed
$6.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2024, 2024–2030. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2024; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Jeimer Candelario306.038$13.0MFREE AGENT
Frankie Montas316.015$8.9MFREE AGENT
Emilio Pagán336.091$8.0MFREE AGENT
Hunter Greene242.000$3.3M$6.3M$8.3M$15.3M$16.3M$21.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Luke Maile336.148$3.0MFREE AGENT
Brent Suter346.161$2.5MFREE AGENT
Jakob Junis317.000$2.3MFREE AGENT
Buck Farmer336.140$2.2MFREE AGENT
Justin Wilson3611.035$1.5MFREE AGENT
Amed Rosario286.062$320kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Nick Martinez335.002$14.0MFREE AGENT
Jonathan India273.000$3.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Santiago Espinal293.149$2.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Stephenson273.056$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty France294.089$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Fraley293.097$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Sims305.014$2.1MFREE AGENT
Mike Ford315.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Austin Wynns333.090$914kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tejay Antone304.000$830kARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Slater315.147$381kFREE AGENT
Alex Young303.143$205kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dominic Smith295.081$138kFREE AGENT
Edwin Rios304.003$86kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (37)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Sam Moll322.075$760kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Lodolo262.000$760kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexis Díaz272.000$760kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Gibaut302.077$760kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Benson261.042$750kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stuart Fairchild281.114$750kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Martini341.127$750kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Cruz341.035$750kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Steer261.035$750kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
TJ Friedl281.112$750kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Graham Ashcraft261.136$750kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elly De La Cruz221.000$742kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Williamson260.139$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Abbott250.119$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Dunn250.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lyon Richardson240.033$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Conner Capel270.090$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Legumina270.109$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Noelvi Marte220.044$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson Spiers260.028$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Encarnacion-Strand240.077$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Hurtubise260.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Santillan272.020$310kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rece Hinds230.000$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julian Aguiar230.000$167kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bubba Thompson260.134$164kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yosver Zulueta260.000$127kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rhett Lowder220.000$123kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Wiemer251.000$70kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Livan Soto240.042$57kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Levi Jordan28–$36k
Casey Kelly342.135$20kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Yang26–$16k
Brandon Leibrandt310.111$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alan Busenitz331.005$12kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Kravetz27–$12k
David Buchanan351.008$4kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2024; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.