RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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GM: Ross Atkins

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.3× league · TAB -6.3
-6.3TAB — talent above budget24th/30
-11.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)27th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-4.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag15th/30
33%dead money %15th/30
0.457win %24th/30
31.1roster fWAR19th/30
-82surplus $M (value vs cost)23rd/30
$210Mpayroll $M9th/30

Roster

CFDaulton Varsho 94GJoey Loperfido 20GJonatan Clase 8G
LFDavis Schneider 93GDaulton Varsho 67GJoey Loperfido 54G
RFGeorge Springer 123GAddison Barger 27GSteward Berroa 13G
SSBo Bichette 81GLeo Jiménez 43GErnie Clement 41G
2BDavis Schneider 56GSpencer Horwitz 39GLeo Jiménez 21G
3BErnie Clement 96GAddison Barger 36GVladimir Guerrero Jr. 12G
1BVladimir Guerrero Jr. 121GSpencer Horwitz 41GLuis De Los Santos 2G
STARTERSKevin Gausman 3.0WARChris Bassitt 2.3WARYariel Rodríguez 1.1WARJosé Berríos 1.1WARBowden Francis 1.0WAR
CAlejandro Kirk 93GBrian Serven 27GTyler Heineman 6G
DHVladimir Guerrero Jr. 29GDaniel Vogelbach 22GGeorge Springer 20G
BULLPEN★ Chad Green 17svGénesis Cabrera 13hZach Pop 12hErik Swanson 9hBrendon Little 7hRyan Burr 3hDillon Tate 3hRyan Yarbrough 1h
CAlejandro Kirk 93 · Brian Serven 27 · Tyler Heineman 6
1BVladimir Guerrero Jr. 121 · Spencer Horwitz 41 · Luis De Los Santos 2
2BDavis Schneider 56 · Spencer Horwitz 39 · Leo Jiménez 21
3BErnie Clement 96 · Addison Barger 36 · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 12
SSBo Bichette 81 · Leo Jiménez 43 · Ernie Clement 41
LFDavis Schneider 93 · Daulton Varsho 67 · Joey Loperfido 54
CFDaulton Varsho 94 · Joey Loperfido 20 · Jonatan Clase 8
RFGeorge Springer 123 · Addison Barger 27 · Steward Berroa 13
DHVladimir Guerrero Jr. 29 · Daniel Vogelbach 22 · George Springer 20
SPKevin Gausman 3.0 · Chris Bassitt 2.3 · Yariel Rodríguez 1.1 · José Berríos 1.1 · Bowden Francis 1.0
BP★ Chad Green 17 · Génesis Cabrera 13 · Zach Pop 12 · Erik Swanson 9 · Brendon Little 7 · Ryan Burr 3 · Dillon Tate 3 · Ryan Yarbrough 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2024 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 25 arb 1595.3 19.9 +2.1
Daulton Varsho 27 arb 1363.2 5.7 +7.6
Kevin Gausman 33 FA-elig 313.0 22.0 -9.5
Alejandro Kirk 25 arb 1032.7 2.8 +8.6
Chris Bassitt 35 FA-elig 312.3 22.0 -12.3
Yusei Kikuchi↔ HOU 33 arb 222.2 6.9 +2.4
Ernie Clement 28 arb 1392.1 0.8 +8.2
Isiah Kiner-Falefa↔ PIT 29 FA-elig 832.0 4.7 +3.7
Spencer Horwitz 26 pre-arb 971.9 0.7 +7.0
José Berríos 30 FA-elig 321.1 17.7 -13.0
Yariel Rodríguez 27 pre-arb 211.1 3.6 +0.9
George Springer 34 FA-elig 1451.1 24.2 -19.8
Bowden Francis 28 pre-arb 271.0 0.7 +3.6
Yimi García↔ SEA 33 FA-elig 290.8 4.5 -1.2
Nathan Lukes 29 pre-arb 220.7 0.7 +2.0
Will Wagner 25 – 240.6 0.2 +2.3
Danny Jansen↔ BOS 29 FA-elig 630.5 3.5 -1.3
Leo Jiménez 23 – 630.5 – –
Ryan Burr 30 pre-arb 340.5 0.4 +1.6
Justin Turner↔ SEA 39 FA-elig 910.5 8.5 -6.6
Cavan Biggio↔ ATL 29 arb 440.4 2.4 -0.6
Steward Berroa 25 – 280.4 0.3 +1.3
Davis Schneider 25 pre-arb 1350.4 0.7 +0.8
Kevin Kiermaier↔ LAD 34 FA-elig 820.3 7.4 -6.0
Bo Bichette 26 arb 810.3 12.1 -10.9
Ryan Yarbrough↔ LAD 32 FA-elig 120.3 1.1 +0.1
Jonatan Clase↔ SEA 22 pre-arb 70.2 0.2 +0.8
Trevor Richards↔ MIN 31 FA-elig 450.1 1.8 -1.3
Tyler Heineman↔ BOS 33 arb 60.1 0.6 -0.2
Chad Green 33 FA-elig 530.1 10.5 -10.2
Tommy Nance 33 pre-arb 200.1 0.2 +0.1
Dillon Tate↔ BAL 30 arb 40.1 0.2 +0.1
Alek Manoah 26 arb 50.0 0.8 -0.6
Nick Robertson↔ STL 25 pre-arb 10.0 0.1 -0.1
Brandon Eisert 26 – 30.0 0.1 -0.1
Brett de Geus↔ MIA 26 arb 2-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Mitch White↔ MIL 29 – 4-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Nate Pearson↔ CHC 27 arb 41-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Orelvis Martinez 22 – 1-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Luis Frías↔ ARI 26 arb 4-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Wes Parsons↔ CLE 31 FA-elig 2-0.1 0.4 -0.9
Luis De Los Santos 26 – 13-0.1 0.2 -0.7
Yerry Rodríguez↔ TEX 26 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.2 -0.8
Easton Lucas↔ DET 27 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.2 -0.8
Tim Mayza↔ NYY 32 FA-elig 35-0.2 2.5 -3.2
Brian Serven 29 pre-arb 28-0.2 0.8 -1.4
Jose Cuas↔ CHC 30 – 4-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Paolo Espino 37 pre-arb 3-0.3 0.0 -1.1
Joey Loperfido↔ HOU 25 pre-arb 43-0.3 0.4 -1.6
Jordan Romano 31 arb 15-0.3 7.8 -9.0
Brendon Little 27 pre-arb 49-0.3 0.7 -2.0
Daniel Vogelbach 31 FA-elig 31-0.3 2.0 -3.4
Addison Barger 24 pre-arb 69-0.3 0.7 -2.1
Génesis Cabrera 27 arb 69-0.4 1.5 -3.3
Zach Pop 27 arb 58-0.6 0.8 -3.4
Erik Swanson 30 arb 45-0.6 2.8 -5.4

Key additions (new vs 2023)

PlayerfWAR
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2.0
Yariel Rodríguez1.1
Will Wagner0.6
Leo Jiménez0.5
Ryan Burr0.5
Justin Turner0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2023)

Player2023 fWAR
Matt Chapman3.0
Brandon Belt2.1
Hyun Jin Ryu0.4
Jordan Hicks0.2
Jay Jackson0.1
Trent Thornton0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2024 payroll
$210.0M
2025 guaranteed
$73.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2024, 2024–2030. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2024; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
George Springer349.166$24.2M$24.2M$24.2MFREE AGENT
Kevin Gausman339.151$22.0M$23.0M$23.0MFREE AGENT
Chris Bassitt357.130$22.0MFREE AGENT
José Berríos307.044$17.7M$19.0M$19.0M$24.0M$24.0MFREE AGENT
Chad Green337.050$10.5MFREE AGENT
Justin Turner3913.045$8.5MFREE AGENT
Kevin Kiermaier349.131$7.4MFREE AGENT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa296.000$4.7MFREE AGENT
Yimi García338.149$4.5MVESTFREE AGENT
Yariel Rodríguez270.000$3.6M$7.0M$7.0M$8.0M$6.3MPLAYERARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Vogelbach318.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Wes Parsons316.000$375kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.255.000$19.9MFREE AGENT
Bo Bichette264.063$12.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Romano314.051$7.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Yusei Kikuchi335.000$6.9MFREE AGENT
Daulton Varsho273.128$5.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Jansen295.050$3.5MFREE AGENT
Alejandro Kirk253.047$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Swanson304.096$2.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Mayza324.156$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Cavan Biggio294.129$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Richards315.084$1.8MFREE AGENT
Génesis Cabrera274.011$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Yarbrough325.117$1.1MFREE AGENT
Tyler Heineman335.000$555kFREE AGENT
Nate Pearson273.005$547kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Frías263.000$272kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Tate304.048$182kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett de Geus263.000$114kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Alek Manoah262.063$782kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Pop272.024$766kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ernie Clement281.168$758kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Serven291.012$751kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bowden Francis280.098$748kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Davis Schneider250.059$745kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Horwitz260.037$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Addison Barger240.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nathan Lukes290.112$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendon Little270.003$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Loperfido250.000$393kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Orelvis Martinez22–$386k
Ryan Burr301.143$370kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steward Berroa250.000$286kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonatan Clase220.000$199kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Wagner250.000$191kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Nance332.029$191kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yerry Rodríguez260.044$186kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Easton Lucas270.026$185kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis De Los Santos26–$167k
Brandon Eisert260.000$135kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Robertson251.000$82kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Cuas301.129$37kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paolo Espino372.102$36kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch White291.087$32kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leo Jiménez23–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2024; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.