RRosternomics

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Sean Johnson

Twins

2017–present · 8 drafts · 209 picks

Early-Round Selection
-18.7
#156 of 172
rds 1–10, cost-ctrl
Late-Round Value
+2.2
#44 of 172
rds 11+, total career
Total DVOS
-88.2
#168 of 172
-11.03/draft
Hitter DVOS
-10.7
#154 of 172
reliable skill (+0.54)
Career fWAR drafted
74
#87 of 172

Value by position — where the value came from (descriptive)

PosPicksfWARDVOS
P2531 +14.9
C210 +8.3
OF74 -1.6
IF829 -17.4

Position from each player's primary MLB fielding spot; never-MLB picks excluded. This table is descriptive, not a skill ranking — per-position DVOS isn't reliable at this granularity (split-half ≈ 0 for P/OF, a small-sample mirage for C). The one reliable position cut is Hitter vs Pitcher: drafting hitters (C/IF/OF) above slot repeats (split-half +0.54, the KPI above), but drafting pitchers above slot does not (≈ 0) — so we rank Hitter DVOS and leave pitcher out.

Top picks — who drove the value

YrOvrPlayerPosfWARExpDVOS
201859Ryan JeffersC 10.21.8 +8.4
2017346Bailey OberP 9.80.3 +9.5
201735Brent RookerDH 8.92.8 +6.0
2017466Cade SmithP 6.90.2 +6.7
201990Spencer Steer1B 5.61.0 +4.6
20171Royce Lewis3B 5.223.5 -18.3
201820Trevor LarnachDH 4.66.0 -1.4
201939Matt WallnerOF 4.22.8 +1.4
2019449Louis VarlandP 3.50.2 +3.3
202349Luke Keaschall2B 2.72.4 +0.3
2018154Cole SandsP 2.10.8 +1.2
202198Cade PovichP 1.81.0 +0.8
2017286Calvin FaucherP 1.60.5 +1.1
2021399David FestaP 1.40.3 +1.1
2022234Zebby MatthewsP 1.40.5 +0.9

By draft class

YearPicksfWARExpectedDVOS
20174132.0 39.8-7.7
20183917.3 16.0+1.3
20194115.8 22.2-6.4
20204-0.0 5.9-5.9
2021211.3 15.0-13.7
2022204.9 20.9-16.1
2023212.7 22.7-20.0
2024220.0 19.6-19.6
Total209 74 -88.2

DVOS = Σ (a pick's career fWAR − the expected fWAR for that overall slot), credited to the scouting director SABR lists for that draft. We only attribute years with one unambiguous director on record; years where SABR lists multiple names (handoffs/overlaps) or none are left out, so a director's record here may skip years he was involved in — see the coverage note on the leaderboard. Single drafts are noise-dominated — one star swamps a class — so read the multi-year totals, not any one year. Full method on the DVOS page.