Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1 | 1.1 | DET | Casey Mize | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 212 | $7.5M | 51% | Scott Pleis | Al Avila | 6.1 | -7.0 | 19.6±3.8 |
| 2018 | 2 | 1.2 | SFG | Joey Bart | C C | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 242 | $7.03M | 51% | — | Bobby Evans | 3.3 | -16.1 | 24.4±3.7 |
| 2018 | 3 | 1.3 | PHI | Alec Bohm | IF 3B | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 218 | $5.85M | 52% | Johnny Almaraz | Matt Klentak | 9.3 | -3.8 | 21.5±3.9 |
| 2018 | 4 | 1.4 | CHW | Nick Madrigal | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'7" | 175 | $6.41M | 54% | — | Kenny Williams | 2.6 | -10.5 | 21.5±4.1 |
| 2018 | 5 | 1.5 | CIN | Jonathan India | IF 2B | 22 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 200 | $5.3M | 42% | Chris Buckley | Nick Krall | 7.8 | -2.9 | 18.9±3.7 |
| 2018 | 6 | 1.6 | NYM | Jarred Kelenic | OF RF | 19 HS | L/L | 5'11" | 206 | $4.5M | 41% | Marc Tramuta | Sandy Alderson | 0.8 | -2.6 | 8.0±3.9 |
| 2018 | 7 | 1.7 | SDP | Ryan Weathers | P P | 19 HS | R/L | 6'1" | 230 | $5.23M | 42% | Kurt Kemp | AJ Preller | 2.1 | -2.1 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 2018 | 8 | 1.8 | ATL | Carter Stewart | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'6" | 225 | — | — | Brian Bridges | Alex Anthopoulos | 0.0 | -3.2 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 2018 | 9 | 1.9 | OAK | Kyler Murray | OF OF | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 195 | $4.66M | 43% | Eric Kubota | David Forst | 0.0 | -7.1 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2018 | 10 | 1.10 | PIT | Travis Swaggerty | OF LF | 21 COLL | L/L | 5'11" | 200 | $4.4M | 44% | Joe Dellicarri | Neal Huntington | -0.2 | -7.2 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2018 | 11 | 1.11 | BAL | Grayson Rodriguez | P P | 19 HS | L/R | 6'5" | 230 | $4.3M | 41% | Gary Rajsich | Dan Duquette | 4.0 | +1.1 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2018 | 12 | 1.12 | TOR | Jordan Groshans | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 200 | — | — | Steve Sanders | Ross Atkins | -0.1 | -3.3 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2018 | 13 | 1.13 | MIA | Connor Scott | OF LF | 19 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 208 | $4.04M | 39% | — | Michael Hill | 0.0 | -3.1 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2018 | 14 | 1.14 | SEA | Logan Gilbert | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 215 | $3.88M | 46% | — | Jerry Dipoto | 15.3 | +9.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2018 | 15 | 1.15 | TEX | Cole Winn | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 190 | $3.15M | 35% | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | 0.3 | -2.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2018 | 16 | 1.16 | TBR | Matthew Liberatore | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 215 | $3.5M | 25% | Rob Metzler | Erik Neander | 3.0 | +0.7 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2018 | 17 | 1.17 | ANA | Jordyn Adams | OF CF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 181 | $4.1M | 47% | Matt Swanson | Billy Eppler | -0.9 | -4.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2018 | 18 | 1.18 | KCR | Brady Singer | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 215 | $4.25M | 30% | — | Dayton Moore | 12.9 | +9.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2018 | 19 | 1.19 | STL | Nolan Gorman | IF 3B | 18 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 225 | $3.23M | 34% | Randy Flores | John Mozeliak | 3.1 | +1.0 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2018 | 20 | 1.20 | MIN | Trevor Larnach | OF LF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 223 | $2.55M | 37% | Sean Johnson | Derek Falvey | 3.6 | +0.8 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2018 | 21 | 1.21 | MIL | Brice Turang | IF 2B | 19 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 190 | $3.41M | 44% | — | David Stearns | 9.0 | +6.9 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2018 | 22 | 1.22 | COL | Ryan Rolison | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'2" | 213 | $2.91M | 34% | — | Jeff Bridich | -0.8 | -4.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2018 | 23 | 1.23 | NYY | Anthony Seigler | IF 2B | 19 HS | L/S | 5'9" | 192 | $2.82M | 35% | — | Brian Cashman | -0.2 | -2.3 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2018 | 24 | 1.24 | CHC | Nico Hoerner | IF 2B | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 200 | $2.72M | 30% | Matt Dorey | Jed Hoyer | 21.7 | +15.4 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2018 | 25 | 1.25 | ARI | ✕ Matt McLain | IF 2B | 19 HS | R/R | 5'8" | 180 | — | — | Deric Ladnier | Mike Hazen | 0.0 | -2.1 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2018 | 26 | 1.26 | BOS | Triston Casas | IF 1B | 18 HS | L/R | 6'4" | 244 | $2.55M | 35% | — | Dave Dombrowski | 2.2 | +0.5 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2018 | 27 | 1.27 | WSN | Mason Denaburg | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 195 | $3.0M | 44% | — | Michael Rizzo | 0.0 | -1.4 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2018 | 28 | 1.28 | HOU | Seth Beer | IF 1B | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 225 | — | — | — | Jeff Luhnow | -0.7 | -2.9 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2018 | 29 | 1.29 | CLE | Bo Naylor | C C | 18 HS | L/R | 5'9" | 205 | $2.58M | 24% | Scott Barnsby | Chris Antonetti | 4.4 | +3.3 | 3.1±3.8 |
| 2018 | 30 | 1.30 | LAD | ✕ J.T. Ginn | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 200 | — | — | Billy Gasparino | Andrew Friedman | 0.0 | -1.4 | 2.7±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.