RRosternomics

Mets NYM

GM: Sandy Alderson

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.19× league · TAB -2.4
-2.4TAB — talent above budget16th/30
-7.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)20th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars12th/30
-7.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/30
54%dead money %27th/30
0.475win %20th/30
34.0roster fWAR13th/30
-38surplus $M (value vs cost)18th/30
$156Mpayroll $M10th/30

Roster

CFAustin Jackson 91GMichael Conforto 58GBrandon Nimmo 44G
LFMichael Conforto 84GYoenis Cespedes 35GBrandon Nimmo 32G
RFJay Bruce 64GBrandon Nimmo 62GMichael Conforto 13G
SSAmed Rosario 146GJosé Reyes 25GJack Reinheimer 3G
2BJeff McNeil 54GWilmer Flores 13GJosé Reyes 13G
3BTodd Frazier 109GJosé Reyes 28GLuis Guillorme 14G
1BWilmer Flores 83GAdrián González 48GDominic Smith 28G
STARTERSJacob deGrom 9.4WARZack Wheeler 4.4WARNoah Syndergaard 4.2WARSeth Lugo 1.6WARSteven Matz 1.1WAR
CKevin Plawecki 71GDevin Mesoraco 67GTomás Nido 30G
DHJosé Bautista 3GJay Bruce 2GWilmer Flores 2G
BULLPEN Robert Gsellman 13svJerry Blevins 8hAJ Ramos 7hDrew Smith 4hJacob Rhame 2hPaul Sewald 2hAnthony Swarzak 2hTyler Bashlor 0h
CKevin Plawecki 71 · Devin Mesoraco 67 · Tomás Nido 30
1BWilmer Flores 83 · Adrián González 48 · Dominic Smith 28
2BJeff McNeil 54 · Wilmer Flores 13 · José Reyes 13
3BTodd Frazier 109 · José Reyes 28 · Luis Guillorme 14
SSAmed Rosario 146 · José Reyes 25 · Jack Reinheimer 3
LFMichael Conforto 84 · Yoenis Cespedes 35 · Brandon Nimmo 32
CFAustin Jackson 91 · Michael Conforto 58 · Brandon Nimmo 44
RFJay Bruce 64 · Brandon Nimmo 62 · Michael Conforto 13
DHJosé Bautista 3 · Jay Bruce 2 · Wilmer Flores 2
SPJacob deGrom 9.4 · Zack Wheeler 4.4 · Noah Syndergaard 4.2 · Seth Lugo 1.6 · Steven Matz 1.1
BP Robert Gsellman 13 · Jerry Blevins 8 · AJ Ramos 7 · Drew Smith 4 · Jacob Rhame 2 · Paul Sewald 2 · Anthony Swarzak 2 · Tyler Bashlor 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jacob deGrom 30 arb 329.4 7.4 +24.6
Brandon Nimmo 25 pre-arb 1405.1 0.6 +16.9
Zack Wheeler 28 arb 294.4 1.9 +13.2
Noah Syndergaard 25 arb 254.2 3.0 +11.2
Michael Conforto 25 arb 1533.4 0.6 +11.1
Asdrúbal Cabrera↔ PHI 32 FA-elig 982.8 5.5 +4.1
Jeff McNeil 26 632.6 0.2 +8.8
Seth Lugo 28 pre-arb 541.6 0.6 +4.7
Todd Frazier 32 FA-elig 1151.4 8.0 -3.1
Jeurys Familia↔ OAK 28 FA-elig 401.1 4.5 -0.6
Steven Matz 27 arb 301.1 0.6 +3.3
Wilmer Flores 26 arb 1260.8 3.4 -0.7
Yoenis Cespedes 32 FA-elig 380.7 29.0 -26.5
Juan Lagares 29 arb 300.5 6.5 -4.7
Kevin Plawecki 27 arb 790.5 0.6 +1.1
José Bautista↔ ATL 37 FA-elig 830.4 0.4 +1.1
Amed Rosario 22 pre-arb 1540.4 0.5 +0.8
Robert Gsellman 24 pre-arb 680.4 0.6 +0.8
Drew Smith 24 270.3 0.3 +0.7
Jason Vargas 35 FA-elig 210.3 6.0 -5.1
Daniel Zamora 25 160.2 0.1 +0.7
Travis d'Arnaud 29 arb 40.1 3.5 -3.3
Scott Copeland 30 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.2
Paul Sewald 28 pre-arb 460.0 0.6 -0.4
Eric Hanhold 24 30.0 0.1 -0.1
Devin Mesoraco↔ CIN 30 FA-elig 66-0.0 10.3 -10.3
David Wright 35 FA-elig 2-0.0 20.0 -20.0
Jack Reinheimer 25 pre-arb 21-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Jerry Blevins 34 FA-elig 64-0.1 7.0 -7.2
Matt Harvey↔ CIN 29 FA-elig 8-0.1 1.4 -1.6
Austin Jackson↔ SFG 31 FA-elig 57-0.1 0.8 -1.0
P.J. Conlon 24 3-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Kevin Kaczmarski 26 4-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Drew Gagnon 28 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Ty Kelly 29 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.0 -0.5
AJ Ramos 31 FA-elig 28-0.2 9.2 -9.8
Phillip Evans 25 pre-arb 15-0.2 0.6 -1.1
Bobby Wahl 26 pre-arb 7-0.2 0.2 -0.8
Buddy Baumann↔ SDP 30 pre-arb 3-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Luis Guillorme 23 35-0.2 0.2 -0.8
Tyler Bashlor 25 24-0.2 0.3 -1.1
Tomás Nido 24 pre-arb 34-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Gerson Bautista 23 5-0.3 0.0 -1.0
Jose Lobatón 33 FA-elig 22-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Chris Flexen 23 pre-arb 4-0.3 0.0 -1.1
Chris Beck↔ CHW 27 pre-arb 6-0.3 0.0 -1.1
Jacob Rhame 25 pre-arb 30-0.3 0.5 -1.7
Adrián González 36 FA-elig 54-0.4 0.5 -1.7
Anthony Swarzak 32 FA-elig 29-0.4 5.5 -6.8
José Reyes 35 FA-elig 110-0.4 2.0 -3.4
Jay Bruce 31 FA-elig 94-0.5 11.0 -12.6
Tim Peterson 27 22-0.5 0.3 -1.9
Dominic Smith 23 pre-arb 56-0.5 0.2 -1.8
Corey Oswalt 24 17-0.5 0.3 -2.0
Matthew den Dekker 30 8-0.6
Hansel Robles↔ ANA 27 arb 16-0.7 0.3 -2.6

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Jeff McNeil2.6
Todd Frazier1.4
José Bautista0.4
Drew Smith0.3
Jason Vargas0.3
Daniel Zamora0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Curtis Granderson1.8
Neil Walker1.1
Lucas Duda0.9
Addison Reed0.9
René Rivera0.3
Norichika Aoki0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$156.0M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Yoenis Cespedes326.000$29.0MFREE AGENT
David Wright3513.075$20.0MFREE AGENT
Jay Bruce319.125$11.0MFREE AGENT
Devin Mesoraco306.028$10.3MFREE AGENT
Todd Frazier326.071$8.0MFREE AGENT
Jerry Blevins348.081$7.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Vargas3510.114$6.0MFREE AGENT
Asdrúbal Cabrera3210.027$5.5MFREE AGENT
Anthony Swarzak326.024$5.5MFREE AGENT
José Reyes3514.052$2.0MFREE AGENT
Austin Jackson318.000$800kFREE AGENT
Adrián González3614.000$545kFREE AGENT
Jose Lobatón336.138$464kFREE AGENT
José Bautista3712.165$371kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
AJ Ramos315.030$9.2MFREE AGENT
Jacob deGrom303.139$7.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Lagares294.160$6.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeurys Familia285.029$4.5MFREE AGENT
Travis d'Arnaud294.044$3.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilmer Flores264.003$3.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Wheeler284.098$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Harvey295.072$1.4MFREE AGENT
Matthew den Dekker305.000FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (33)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Noah Syndergaard252.149$3.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Conforto252.043$605kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Matz272.099$577kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Lugo281.082$564kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Gsellman241.042$562kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Plawecki271.167$557kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Nimmo251.042$556kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phillip Evans250.024$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Sewald280.160$553kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Amed Rosario220.062$549kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Rhame250.030$546kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Bashlor250.000$287kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Oswalt240.000$287kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Peterson270.000$272kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hansel Robles272.129$272kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Smith240.000$261kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tomás Nido240.020$220kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dominic Smith230.052$220kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff McNeil260.000$202kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Guillorme230.000$188kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Wahl260.152$176kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Zamora250.000$132kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Reinheimer250.004$114kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Hanhold240.000$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Gagnon280.113$85kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buddy Baumann301.125$60kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Kaczmarski26$56k
Ty Kelly291.069$50kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gerson Bautista230.000$50kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Beck271.062$41kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Flexen230.067$35kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
P.J. Conlon24$12k
Scott Copeland300.021$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mets 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3