RRosternomics
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Twins MIN

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President of baseball ops: Derek Falvey · GM: Thad Levine

Overview

REBUILD → steady
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.87× league · TAB -4.7
-4.7TAB — talent above budget20th/30
-2.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)17th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-5.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/30
44%dead money %20th/30
0.481win %19th/30
27.8roster fWAR20th/30
-19surplus $M (value vs cost)15th/30
$113Mpayroll $M18th/30

Roster

CFJake Cave 70GMax Kepler 55GByron Buxton 27G
LFEddie Rosario 125GRobbie Grossman 34GJohnny Field 34G
RFMax Kepler 117GRobbie Grossman 52GJohnny Field 32G
SSJorge Polanco 76GEhire Adrianza 64GEduardo Escobar 21G
2BLogan Forsythe 99GGregorio Petit 10GEhire Adrianza 5G
3BMiguel Sanó 56GEhire Adrianza 28GGregorio Petit 6G
1BJoe Mauer 90GLogan Morrison 50GTyler Austin 42G
STARTERSJosé Berríos 3.0WARKyle Gibson 2.7WARJake Odorizzi 2.5WARFernando Romero 0.6WARGabriel Moya 0.1WAR
CMitch Garver 86GBobby Wilson 47GJason Castro 19G
DHRobbie Grossman 36GLogan Morrison 35GJoe Mauer 33G
BULLPEN★ Trevor Hildenberger 7svTaylor Rogers 18hAddison Reed 10hMatt Magill 6hTrevor May 5hOliver Drake 1hMatt Belisle 1hAlan Busenitz 0h
CMitch Garver 86 · Bobby Wilson 47 · Jason Castro 19
1BJoe Mauer 90 · Logan Morrison 50 · Tyler Austin 42
2BLogan Forsythe 99 · Gregorio Petit 10 · Ehire Adrianza 5
3BMiguel Sanó 56 · Ehire Adrianza 28 · Gregorio Petit 6
SSJorge Polanco 76 · Ehire Adrianza 64 · Eduardo Escobar 21
LFEddie Rosario 125 · Robbie Grossman 34 · Johnny Field 34
CFJake Cave 70 · Max Kepler 55 · Byron Buxton 27
RFMax Kepler 117 · Robbie Grossman 52 · Johnny Field 32
DHRobbie Grossman 36 · Logan Morrison 35 · Joe Mauer 33
SPJosé Berríos 3.0 · Kyle Gibson 2.7 · Jake Odorizzi 2.5 · Fernando Romero 0.6 · Gabriel Moya 0.1
BP★ Trevor Hildenberger 7 · Taylor Rogers 18 · Addison Reed 10 · Matt Magill 6 · Trevor May 5 · Oliver Drake 1 · Matt Belisle 1 · Alan Busenitz 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Eddie Rosario 26 arb 1383.3 0.6 +10.5
José Berríos 24 pre-arb 323.0 0.6 +9.8
Eduardo Escobar↔ ARI 29 FA-elig 973.0 3.1 +7.1
Kyle Gibson 30 arb 322.7 4.2 +5.0
Jake Odorizzi 28 FA-elig 332.5 6.3 +2.1
Max Kepler 25 arb 1562.3 0.6 +7.1
Taylor Rogers 27 pre-arb 721.8 0.6 +5.7
Jorge Polanco 24 arb 771.4 0.6 +4.3
Robbie Grossman 28 arb 1291.3 2.0 +2.6
Ehire Adrianza 28 arb 1141.2 1.0 +3.1
Brian Dozier↔ LAD 31 FA-elig 1041.1 6.2 -2.6
Jake Cave 25 pre-arb 911.1 0.5 +3.1
Joe Mauer 35 FA-elig 1270.8 23.0 -20.1
Zach Duke↔ SEA 35 FA-elig 450.8 1.3 +1.4
Ryan Pressly↔ HOU 29 arb 510.8 1.1 +1.6
Willians Astudillo 26 – 300.7 0.2 +2.3
Lance Lynn↔ NYY 31 FA-elig 200.7 7.7 -5.3
Fernando Romero 23 – 110.6 0.2 +1.9
Fernando Rodney↔ OAK 41 FA-elig 460.5 2.9 -1.1
Trevor May 28 arb 240.5 0.7 +1.1
Kohl Stewart 23 – 80.4 0.1 +1.1
Mitch Garver 27 pre-arb 1030.4 0.5 +0.7
Logan Forsythe↔ LAD 31 FA-elig 500.3 3.8 -2.7
Adalberto Mejía 25 pre-arb 50.3 0.2 +0.8
Tyler Austin↔ NYY 26 pre-arb 350.3 0.1 +0.7
Jason Castro 31 FA-elig 190.2 8.0 -7.3
Chris Gimenez↔ CHC 35 arb 130.2 0.1 +0.6
Oliver Drake↔ ANA 31 arb 190.2 0.2 +0.4
Bobby Wilson 35 – 470.1 0.4 +0.0
Gregorio Petit 33 pre-arb 260.1 0.2 +0.2
Miguel Sanó 25 arb 710.1 0.6 -0.3
Gabriel Moya 23 pre-arb 350.1 0.3 +0.0
John Curtiss 25 pre-arb 80.1 0.1 +0.2
Chase De Jong 24 – 40.1 0.1 +0.1
Andrew Vasquez 24 – 90.0 0.1 +0.0
Johnny Field↔ TBR 26 – 210.0 0.1 -0.0
Juan Graterol↔ ANA 29 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Ryan LaMarre↔ CHW 29 – 43-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Aaron Slegers 25 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Trevor Hildenberger 27 pre-arb 73-0.1 0.6 -0.9
Tyler Kinley↔ MIA 27 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.2 -0.7
David Hale↔ NYY 30 – 1-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Stephen Gonsalves 23 – 7-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Matt Belisle↔ CLE 38 FA-elig 25-0.2 1.1 -1.8
Zack Littell 22 – 8-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Addison Reed 29 FA-elig 55-0.3 8.2 -9.1
Tyler Duffey 27 pre-arb 19-0.3 0.2 -1.0
Phil Hughes↔ SDP 32 FA-elig 7-0.3 4.0 -5.0
Taylor Motter↔ SEA 28 pre-arb 9-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Matt Magill 28 pre-arb 40-0.3 0.5 -1.5
Ervin Santana 35 FA-elig 5-0.5 13.5 -15.2
Byron Buxton 24 arb 28-0.5 0.6 -2.4
Logan Morrison 30 FA-elig 95-0.7 5.5 -7.8
Alan Busenitz 27 pre-arb 23-0.8 0.2 -2.9

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Jake Odorizzi2.5
Jake Cave1.1
Zach Duke0.8
Willians Astudillo0.7
Lance Lynn0.7
Fernando Romero0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Brandon Kintzler0.6
Dillon Gee0.5
Kennys Vargas0.4
Jaime García0.2
Bartolo Colon0.2
Chris Heston0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$113.4M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Joe Mauer3514.000$23.0MFREE AGENT
Ervin Santana3512.104$13.5MFREE AGENT
Addison Reed296.001$8.2MFREE AGENT
Jason Castro317.104$8.0MFREE AGENT
Lance Lynn316.119$7.7MFREE AGENT
Logan Morrison307.069$5.5MFREE AGENT
Phil Hughes3211.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Logan Forsythe316.113$3.8MFREE AGENT
Fernando Rodney4114.137$2.9MFREE AGENT
Zach Duke3511.054$1.3MFREE AGENT
Matt Belisle3812.019$1.1MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Jake Odorizzi284.042$6.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Dozier315.100$6.2MFREE AGENT
Kyle Gibson304.039$4.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Escobar295.128$3.1MFREE AGENT
Robbie Grossman283.060$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Pressly294.039$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ehire Adrianza283.131$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor May283.051$650kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Wilson355.058$434kFREE AGENT
Chris Gimenez355.163$59kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (33)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Miguel Sanó252.095$602kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Rosario262.120$602kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Kepler251.152$588kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Byron Buxton242.064$580kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Polanco241.105$575kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Berríos241.044$570kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Rogers271.145$565kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Hildenberger270.101$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Garver270.045$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Cave250.000$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Magill280.047$457kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Slegers250.029$267kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabriel Moya230.020$261kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oliver Drake311.094$239kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adalberto Mejía250.151$214kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gregorio Petit331.056$205kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alan Busenitz270.086$202kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willians Astudillo260.000$179kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Kinley270.000$168kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Duffey272.042$161kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Romero230.000$158kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kohl Stewart230.000$146kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan LaMarre290.076$129kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Gonsalves230.000$123kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Austin261.029$119kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnny Field26–$97k
Zack Littell220.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Curtiss250.040$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Vasquez240.000$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase De Jong241.000$82kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Motter281.033$62kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Graterol291.031$20kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hale301.168$14kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.