RRosternomics

Dodgers LAD

President of baseball ops: Andrew Friedman · GM: Farhan Zaidi

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 6 in this regime · payroll 1.29× league · TAB +16.2
+16.2TAB — talent above budget4th/30
+6.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)11th/30
15.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-2.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/30
18%dead money %2nd/30
0.564win %7th/30
54.0roster fWAR2nd/30
+15surplus $M (value vs cost)9th/30
$169Mpayroll $M7th/30

2018: won pennant · 92–71. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFCody Bellinger 78GEnrique Hernández 63GChris Taylor 50G
LFJoc Pederson 116GMatt Kemp 75GChris Taylor 24G
RFYasiel Puig 118GMatt Kemp 51GEnrique Hernández 19G
SSManny Machado 147GChris Taylor 81GCorey Seager 25G
2BBrian Dozier 148GChase Utley 50GEnrique Hernández 41G
3BJustin Turner 96GDavid Freese 58GMax Muncy 38G
1BCody Bellinger 110GMax Muncy 84GDavid Freese 29G
STARTERSClayton Kershaw 4.0WARWalker Buehler 3.2WARHyun Jin Ryu 2.3WARKenta Maeda 2.3WARAlex Wood 2.1WAR
CYasmani Grandal 135GAustin Barnes 61GRocky Gale 2G
DHMatt Kemp 5GJustin Turner 4GMax Muncy 1G
BULLPEN Kenley Jansen 38svScott Alexander 21hRyan Madson 14hJosh Fields 8hPedro Báez 7hDylan Floro 7hJohn Axford 6hDaniel Hudson 3h
CYasmani Grandal 135 · Austin Barnes 61 · Rocky Gale 2
1BCody Bellinger 110 · Max Muncy 84 · David Freese 29
2BBrian Dozier 148 · Chase Utley 50 · Enrique Hernández 41
3BJustin Turner 96 · David Freese 58 · Max Muncy 38
SSManny Machado 147 · Chris Taylor 81 · Corey Seager 25
LFJoc Pederson 116 · Matt Kemp 75 · Chris Taylor 24
CFCody Bellinger 78 · Enrique Hernández 63 · Chris Taylor 50
RFYasiel Puig 118 · Matt Kemp 51 · Enrique Hernández 19
DHMatt Kemp 5 · Justin Turner 4 · Max Muncy 1
SPClayton Kershaw 4.0 · Walker Buehler 3.2 · Hyun Jin Ryu 2.3 · Kenta Maeda 2.3 · Alex Wood 2.1
BP Kenley Jansen 38 · Scott Alexander 21 · Ryan Madson 14 · Josh Fields 8 · Pedro Báez 7 · Dylan Floro 7 · John Axford 6 · Daniel Hudson 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Yasmani Grandal 29 FA-elig 1405.3 7.9 +10.0
Max Muncy 27 pre-arb 1374.3 0.5 +14.3
Justin Turner 33 FA-elig 1034.1 12.0 +2.1
Clayton Kershaw 30 FA-elig 274.0 35.6 -22.1
Cody Bellinger 22 pre-arb 1623.5 0.6 +11.4
Chris Taylor 27 arb 1553.5 0.6 +11.4
Walker Buehler 23 pre-arb 243.2 0.5 +10.5
Manny Machado↔ BAL 25 FA-elig 662.7 6.5 +2.8
Enrique Hernández 26 arb 1452.6 1.6 +7.4
Yasiel Puig 27 arb 1252.3 9.2 -1.3
Kenta Maeda 30 pre-arb 412.3 3.1 +4.7
Hyun Jin Ryu 31 arb 162.3 7.8 -0.0
Alex Wood 27 arb 332.1 6.0 +1.0
Ross Stripling 28 pre-arb 362.0 0.6 +6.3
Matt Kemp 33 FA-elig 1462.0 21.8 -14.9
Joc Pederson 26 arb 1481.8 2.6 +3.5
Austin Barnes 28 arb 1001.5 0.6 +4.7
Rich Hill 38 FA-elig 251.5 16.7 -11.7
Pedro Báez 30 arb 550.7 1.5 +1.0
David Freese↔ PIT 35 FA-elig 190.6 0.7 +1.4
Dylan Floro↔ CIN 27 pre-arb 290.6 0.1 +1.8
Tony Cingrani 28 FA-elig 300.5 2.3 -0.5
Corey Seager 24 arb 260.4 0.6 +0.7
Kenley Jansen 30 FA-elig 690.3 11.3 -10.2
Josh Fields 32 arb 450.3 2.2 -1.1
Scott Alexander 28 arb 730.3 0.6 +0.5
Alex Verdugo 22 pre-arb 370.3 0.1 +0.7
Caleb Ferguson 21 300.2 0.3 +0.5
Ryan Madson↔ WSN 37 FA-elig 90.2 1.2 -0.5
Kyle Farmer 27 pre-arb 390.1 0.2 +0.2
Dennis Santana 22 20.1 0.4 +0.1
Tim Locastro 25 pre-arb 180.1 0.1 +0.3
Julio Urías 21 pre-arb 30.1 0.6 -0.2
Pat Venditte 33 pre-arb 150.1 0.2 +0.0
JT Chargois 27 pre-arb 390.1 0.4 -0.3
Chase Utley 39 FA-elig 870.0 1.0 -0.8
Erik Goeddel↔ SEA 29 pre-arb 260.0 0.3 -0.2
John Axford↔ TOR 35 FA-elig 50.0 0.1 -0.1
Zac Rosscup 30 pre-arb 17-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Brian Dozier↔ MIN 31 FA-elig 47-0.0 2.8 -2.9
Daniel Corcino 27 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Rocky Gale 30 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Zach Neal 29 1-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Adam Liberatore 31 17-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Andrew Toles 26 pre-arb 17-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Daniel Hudson 31 FA-elig 40-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Edward Paredes 31 pre-arb 15-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Breyvic Valera↔ BAL 26 20-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Brock Stewart 26 pre-arb 9-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Logan Forsythe↔ MIN 31 FA-elig 70-0.4 5.2 -6.6
Yimi García 27 arb 25-0.4 0.6 -2.1
Wilmer Font↔ OAK 28 FA-elig 6-0.5 0.2 -1.8

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Max Muncy4.3
Manny Machado2.7
Matt Kemp2.0
David Freese0.6
Dylan Floro0.6
Scott Alexander0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Brandon Morrow1.6
Yu Darvish0.9
Tony Watson0.1
Chris Hatcher0.1
Fabio Castillo0.0
Charlie Culberson-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$169.2M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Clayton Kershaw309.105$35.6MFREE AGENT
Matt Kemp3311.049$21.8MFREE AGENT
Rich Hill388.127$16.7MFREE AGENT
Justin Turner337.045$12.0MFREE AGENT
Kenley Jansen307.072$11.3MFREE AGENT
Logan Forsythe316.113$5.2MFREE AGENT
Ryan Madson3712.155$1.2MFREE AGENT
Chase Utley3914.027$1.0MFREE AGENT
David Freese358.028$715kFREE AGENT
Daniel Hudson317.117$469kFREE AGENT
John Axford357.118$150kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Yasiel Puig274.102$9.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Yasmani Grandal295.115$7.9MFREE AGENT
Hyun Jin Ryu315.000$7.8MFREE AGENT
Manny Machado255.056$6.5MFREE AGENT
Alex Wood274.123$6.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Dozier315.100$2.8MFREE AGENT
Joc Pederson263.028$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Cingrani284.088$2.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Fields324.083$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Enrique Hernández263.054$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Báez303.059$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yimi García273.004$630kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Liberatore313.086$140kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Kenta Maeda302.000$3.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Seager242.032$605kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Bellinger220.160$585kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Taylor272.031$575kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Barnes281.124$555kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ross Stripling281.115$555kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Alexander281.097$555kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julio Urías210.123$550kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Neal29$545k
Walker Buehler230.026$513kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Muncy271.030$489kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JT Chargois270.084$438kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dennis Santana220.000$363kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Goeddel291.126$334kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Ferguson210.000$328kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zac Rosscup302.164$259kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Farmer270.046$237kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Venditte331.017$193kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilmer Font280.085$174kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Verdugo220.031$138kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Floro270.056$135kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Toles261.087$122kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Locastro250.003$120kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edward Paredes310.053$114kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rocky Gale300.047$85kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brock Stewart261.007$73kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Breyvic Valera260.018$60kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Corcino270.034$15kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Dodgers 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3