RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

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President of baseball ops: Dave Dombrowski

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.63× league · TAB +11.0
+11.0TAB — talent above budget8th/30
+19.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)3rd/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-2.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag5th/30
31%dead money %13th/30
0.667win %1st/30
51.3roster fWAR4th/30
-38surplus $M (value vs cost)19th/30
$213Mpayroll $M1st/30

2018: World Series champions · 108–54. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJackie Bradley Jr. 135GAndrew Benintendi 24GMookie Betts 14G
LFAndrew Benintendi 129GJ.D. Martinez 32GSteve Pearce 11G
RFMookie Betts 120GJ.D. Martinez 25GJackie Bradley Jr. 15G
SSXander Bogaerts 136GBrock Holt 23GTzu-Wei Lin 23G
2BIan Kinsler 128GEduardo Núñez 74GBrock Holt 56G
3BRafael Devers 116GEduardo Núñez 45GBrock Holt 5G
1BMitch Moreland 116GSteve Pearce 34GHanley Ramirez 25G
STARTERSChris Sale 6.2WARRick Porcello 2.6WARDavid Price 2.4WAREduardo Rodriguez 2.1WARNathan Eovaldi 1.5WAR
CSandy León 87GChristian Vázquez 75GBlake Swihart 28G
DHJ.D. Martinez 93GSteve Pearce 21GHanley Ramirez 19G
BULLPEN★ Craig Kimbrel 42svMatt Barnes 25hJoe Kelly 21hHeath Hembree 20hRyan Brasier 10hBrandon Workman 7hBobby Poyner 5hTyler Thornburg 3h
CSandy León 87 · Christian Vázquez 75 · Blake Swihart 28
1BMitch Moreland 116 · Steve Pearce 34 · Hanley Ramirez 25
2BIan Kinsler 128 · Eduardo Núñez 74 · Brock Holt 56
3BRafael Devers 116 · Eduardo Núñez 45 · Brock Holt 5
SSXander Bogaerts 136 · Brock Holt 23 · Tzu-Wei Lin 23
LFAndrew Benintendi 129 · J.D. Martinez 32 · Steve Pearce 11
CFJackie Bradley Jr. 135 · Andrew Benintendi 24 · Mookie Betts 14
RFMookie Betts 120 · J.D. Martinez 25 · Jackie Bradley Jr. 15
DHJ.D. Martinez 93 · Steve Pearce 21 · Hanley Ramirez 19
SPChris Sale 6.2 · Rick Porcello 2.6 · David Price 2.4 · Eduardo Rodriguez 2.1 · Nathan Eovaldi 1.5
BP★ Craig Kimbrel 42 · Matt Barnes 25 · Joe Kelly 21 · Heath Hembree 20 · Ryan Brasier 10 · Brandon Workman 7 · Bobby Poyner 5 · Tyler Thornburg 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Mookie Betts 25 arb 13610.2 10.5 +24.2
Chris Sale 29 FA-elig 276.2 12.5 +8.5
J.D. Martinez 30 FA-elig 1505.9 23.8 -3.8
Xander Bogaerts 25 arb 1364.6 7.0 +8.7
Andrew Benintendi 23 pre-arb 1484.3 0.6 +14.2
Jackie Bradley Jr. 28 arb 1442.9 6.1 +3.9
Rick Porcello 29 FA-elig 332.6 21.1 -12.1
David Price 32 FA-elig 302.4 30.0 -21.7
Eduardo Rodriguez 25 arb 272.1 2.4 +4.7
Brock Holt 30 FA-elig 1091.6 2.2 +3.2
Nathan Eovaldi↔ TBR 28 FA-elig 121.5 1.0 +4.1
Craig Kimbrel 30 FA-elig 631.3 13.0 -8.4
Steve Pearce↔ TOR 35 FA-elig 501.3 4.1 +0.3
Matt Barnes 28 arb 621.2 0.6 +3.6
Rafael Devers 21 pre-arb 1210.9 0.6 +2.6
Mitch Moreland 32 FA-elig 1240.9 6.5 -3.4
Ryan Brasier 30 pre-arb 340.7 0.2 +2.0
Joe Kelly 30 FA-elig 730.6 3.8 -1.7
Sandy León 29 FA-elig 890.5 1.9 -0.3
Hector Velázquez 29 pre-arb 470.4 0.5 +0.9
Christian Vázquez 27 arb 800.4 1.4 -0.1
Brian Johnson 27 arb 380.3 0.5 +0.5
Marcus Walden 29 pre-arb 80.2 0.5 +0.3
Bobby Poyner 25 pre-arb 200.2 0.5 +0.1
Steven Wright 33 arb 200.2 1.1 -0.5
Ian Kinsler↔ ANA 36 FA-elig 370.1 3.2 -2.7
Carson Smith 28 arb 180.1 0.8 -0.5
Heath Hembree 29 arb 670.1 0.6 -0.3
Tzu-Wei Lin 24 pre-arb 370.1 0.2 -0.0
Hanley Ramirez 34 FA-elig 440.0 22.8 -22.6
Tony Renda 27 – 10.0 0.0 -0.0
Brandon Workman 29 arb 43-0.0 0.8 -0.9
Jalen Beeks↔ TBR 24 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Dan Butler 31 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Blake Swihart 26 arb 82-0.1 0.6 -0.9
Sam Travis 24 pre-arb 19-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Justin Haley 27 – 4-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Dustin Pedroia 34 FA-elig 3-0.2 16.0 -16.6
William Cuevas 27 – 9-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Brandon Phillips 37 FA-elig 9-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Tyler Thornburg 29 FA-elig 25-0.3 2.0 -3.2
Drew Pomeranz 29 FA-elig 26-0.4 8.5 -9.7
Robby Scott 28 pre-arb 9-0.4 0.1 -1.5
Eduardo Núñez 31 FA-elig 127-0.5 4.0 -5.7

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
J.D. Martinez5.9
Nathan Eovaldi1.5
Steve Pearce1.3
Ryan Brasier0.7
Marcus Walden0.2
Bobby Poyner0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Doug Fister1.3
Blaine Boyer0.4
Fernando Abad0.3
Robbie Ross Jr.0.1
Chase d'Arnaud0.1
Kyle Kendrick0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$212.9M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
David Price328.164$30.0MFREE AGENT
J.D. Martinez306.036$23.8MFREE AGENT
Hanley Ramirez3413.000$22.8MFREE AGENT
Rick Porcello298.170$21.1MFREE AGENT
Dustin Pedroia3414.041$16.0MFREE AGENT
Craig Kimbrel307.066$13.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Chris Sale297.061$12.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Mitch Moreland327.067$6.5MFREE AGENT
Steve Pearce3511.000$4.1MFREE AGENT
Eduardo Núñez316.090$4.0MFREE AGENT
Ian Kinsler3612.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Nathan Eovaldi286.013$1.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Brandon Phillips3713.022$79kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Mookie Betts253.070$10.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Pomeranz295.013$8.5MFREE AGENT
Xander Bogaerts254.041$7.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackie Bradley Jr.285.000$6.1MFREE AGENT
Joe Kelly305.029$3.8MFREE AGENT
Brock Holt304.052$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Thornburg294.057$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Sandy León293.149$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Vázquez273.031$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Wright333.089$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson Smith283.028$850kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Workman293.115$835kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Eduardo Rodriguez252.130$2.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Benintendi231.062$620kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Barnes282.110$605kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Heath Hembree292.106$582kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Devers210.070$564kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Swihart261.164$564kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Johnson270.043$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hector Velázquez290.048$547kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcus Walden290.000$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Poyner250.109$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Brasier300.041$249kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tzu-Wei Lin240.053$234kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Travis240.076$129kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
William Cuevas27–$103k
Robby Scott281.021$88kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Haley271.000$50kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Butler310.045$32kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jalen Beeks240.000$28kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Renda27–$15k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.