RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Michael Rizzo

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 5 in this regime · payroll 1.37× league · TAB +2.7
+2.7TAB — talent above budget11th/30
-4.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)18th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars12th/30
-4.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
28%dead money %7th/30
0.506win %15th/30
40.8roster fWAR9th/30
-40surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/30
$179Mpayroll $M4th/30

Roster

CFMichael A. Taylor 113GBryce Harper 63GVictor Robles 14G
LFJuan Soto 114GAndrew Stevenson 16GMatt Adams 15G
RFBryce Harper 116GAdam Eaton 67GBrian Goodwin 10G
SSTrea Turner 159GWilmer Difo 9G
2BWilmer Difo 112GHowie Kendrick 33GAdrián Sanchez 13G
3BAnthony Rendon 136GWilmer Difo 20GMark Reynolds 10G
1BRyan Zimmerman 73GMark Reynolds 45GDaniel Murphy 14G
STARTERSMax Scherzer 8.2WARTanner Roark 2.5WARStephen Strasburg 2.3WARJeremy Hellickson 1.1WARErick Fedde 0.2WAR
CMatt Wieters 73GPedro Severino 67GSpencer Kieboom 49G
DHMatt Adams 3GAdam Eaton 3GBryce Harper 1G
BULLPEN★ Sean Doolittle 25svSammy Solís 13hJustin Miller 11hMatt Grace 8hGreg Holland 6hTim Collins 4hKelvin Herrera 2hWander Suero 2h
CMatt Wieters 73 · Pedro Severino 67 · Spencer Kieboom 49
1BRyan Zimmerman 73 · Mark Reynolds 45 · Daniel Murphy 14
2BWilmer Difo 112 · Howie Kendrick 33 · Adrián Sanchez 13
3BAnthony Rendon 136 · Wilmer Difo 20 · Mark Reynolds 10
SSTrea Turner 159 · Wilmer Difo 9
LFJuan Soto 114 · Andrew Stevenson 16 · Matt Adams 15
CFMichael A. Taylor 113 · Bryce Harper 63 · Victor Robles 14
RFBryce Harper 116 · Adam Eaton 67 · Brian Goodwin 10
DHMatt Adams 3 · Adam Eaton 3 · Bryce Harper 1
SPMax Scherzer 8.2 · Tanner Roark 2.5 · Stephen Strasburg 2.3 · Jeremy Hellickson 1.1 · Erick Fedde 0.2
BP★ Sean Doolittle 25 · Sammy Solís 13 · Justin Miller 11 · Matt Grace 8 · Greg Holland 6 · Tim Collins 4 · Kelvin Herrera 2 · Wander Suero 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Max Scherzer 33 FA-elig 358.2 22.1 +5.8
Anthony Rendon 28 arb 1365.5 12.3 +6.4
Trea Turner 25 arb 1625.1 0.6 +16.9
Juan Soto 19 – 1163.7 0.4 +12.1
Bryce Harper 25 FA-elig 1593.2 21.6 -10.7
Tanner Roark 31 arb 312.5 6.5 +2.1
Stephen Strasburg 29 FA-elig 222.3 18.3 -10.4
Sean Doolittle 31 FA-elig 431.9 4.4 +2.1
Adam Eaton 29 FA-elig 951.6 6.0 -0.5
Ryan Zimmerman 33 FA-elig 851.5 14.0 -9.0
Gio Gonzalez↔ MIL 32 FA-elig 271.4 10.1 -5.3
Jeremy Hellickson 31 FA-elig 191.1 0.1 +3.6
Matt Adams↔ STL 29 FA-elig 941.0 3.1 +0.4
Michael A. Taylor 27 arb 1341.0 2.5 +0.9
Howie Kendrick 34 FA-elig 400.9 3.0 +0.2
Matt Grace 29 arb 560.6 0.6 +1.6
Victor Robles 21 pre-arb 210.6 0.1 +2.1
Brandon Kintzler↔ CHC 33 FA-elig 450.5 3.2 -1.5
Matt Wieters 32 FA-elig 760.5 10.5 -8.9
Wander Suero 26 – 400.5 0.4 +1.2
Greg Holland↔ STL 32 FA-elig 240.4 6.0 -4.7
Mark Reynolds 34 FA-elig 860.3 0.8 +0.3
Daniel Murphy↔ CHC 33 FA-elig 560.3 10.8 -9.7
Wilmer Difo 26 arb 1480.3 0.6 +0.4
Tommy Milone 31 arb 50.2 0.3 +0.5
Erick Fedde 25 pre-arb 110.2 0.3 +0.3
Spencer Kieboom 27 pre-arb 520.1 0.4 -0.1
Ryan Madson↔ LAD 37 FA-elig 490.0 6.5 -6.4
Adrián Sanchez 27 pre-arb 280.0 0.2 -0.1
Shawn Kelley↔ OAK 34 FA-elig 35-0.0 3.6 -3.6
Koda Glover 25 pre-arb 22-0.0 0.6 -0.6
Justin Miller 31 pre-arb 51-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Austin Voth 26 – 4-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Brian Goodwin↔ KCR 27 pre-arb 48-0.1 0.4 -0.5
Kyle McGowin 26 – 5-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Enny Romero↔ KCR 27 arb 2-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Matt Reynolds 27 pre-arb 12-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Rafael Bautista 25 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.5 -1.0
Joe Ross 25 arb 3-0.1 0.6 -1.0
Austin Adams 27 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Carlos Torres 35 arb 10-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Andrew Stevenson 24 pre-arb 57-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Sammy Solís 29 arb 56-0.2 0.6 -1.2
Miguel Montero 34 FA-elig 4-0.2 1.3 -2.0
Jimmy Cordero 26 – 22-0.2 0.2 -0.9
A.J. Cole↔ NYY 26 arb 4-0.3 0.1 -0.9
Kelvin Herrera↔ KCR 28 FA-elig 21-0.3 3.5 -4.4
Trevor Gott 25 arb 20-0.3 0.6 -1.7
Jefry Rodriguez 24 – 14-0.3 0.2 -1.3
Tim Collins 28 arb 38-0.3 0.3 -1.4
Austen Williams 25 – 10-0.4 0.1 -1.4
Moisés Sierra 29 pre-arb 27-0.5 0.1 -1.9
Pedro Severino 24 pre-arb 70-0.5 0.4 -2.2

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Juan Soto3.7
Jeremy Hellickson1.1
Matt Adams1.0
Wander Suero0.5
Greg Holland0.4
Mark Reynolds0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Matt Albers1.0
Oliver Pérez0.4
Blake Treinen0.4
Ryan Raburn-0.0
Stephen Drew-0.1
Grant Green-0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$179.4M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Max Scherzer339.079$22.1MFREE AGENT
Stephen Strasburg297.118$18.3MFREE AGENT
Ryan Zimmerman3312.032$14.0MFREE AGENT
Daniel Murphy338.109$10.8MFREE AGENT
Matt Wieters328.129$10.5MFREE AGENT
Gio Gonzalez3210.000$10.1MFREE AGENT
Ryan Madson3712.155$6.5MFREE AGENT
Greg Holland326.028$6.0MFREE AGENT
Shawn Kelley348.128$3.6MFREE AGENT
Brandon Kintzler336.003$3.2MFREE AGENT
Howie Kendrick3411.091$3.0MFREE AGENT
Miguel Montero3412.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Mark Reynolds3410.138$763kFREE AGENT
Jeremy Hellickson317.045$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Bryce Harper255.159$21.6MFREE AGENT
Anthony Rendon284.130$12.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Roark314.055$6.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Eaton295.030$6.0MFREE AGENT
Sean Doolittle315.122$4.4MFREE AGENT
Kelvin Herrera285.157$3.5MFREE AGENT
Matt Adams295.033$3.1MFREE AGENT
Michael A. Taylor274.000$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Collins285.097$267kFREE AGENT
Tommy Milone315.113$252kFREE AGENT
Enny Romero275.000$141kFREE AGENT
Carlos Torres355.114$97kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Trea Turner251.135$577kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Ross252.094$568kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sammy Solís292.077$560kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilmer Difo261.110$558kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Grace291.065$557kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Gott250.153$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Koda Glover251.051$552kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Bautista250.037$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Kieboom270.149$419kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Soto190.000$393kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Miller311.171$378kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Severino240.142$375kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wander Suero260.000$360kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Goodwin271.019$354kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erick Fedde250.039$325kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Stevenson240.062$252kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrián Sanchez270.085$185kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jefry Rodriguez240.000$173kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Cordero260.000$152kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Moisés Sierra291.105$114kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Voth260.000$103kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austen Williams250.000$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle McGowin260.000$79kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Robles210.025$79kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Cole260.152$69kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Reynolds271.048$64kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Adams270.035$21kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.