RRosternomics
𝕏

Giants SFG

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Brian Sabean · GM: Bobby Evans

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 6 in this regime · payroll 1.55× league · TAB -18.3
-18.3TAB — talent above budget28th/30
-14.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)27th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars23rd/30
-4.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag13th/30
54%dead money %26th/30
0.451win %21st/30
21.4roster fWAR24th/30
-129surplus $M (value vs cost)30th/30
$203Mpayroll $M2nd/30

Roster

CFGorkys Hernández 86GSteven Duggar 40GGrégor Blanco 23G
LFHunter Pence 44GGorkys Hernández 37GGrégor Blanco 34G
RFAustin Slater 14GHunter Pence 12GGrégor Blanco 11G
SSBrandon Crawford 146GAlen Hanson 16GKelby Tomlinson 13G
2BJoe Panik 94GAlen Hanson 45GKelby Tomlinson 35G
3BEvan Longoria 123GPablo Sandoval 36GChase d'Arnaud 10G
1BBrandon Belt 104GPablo Sandoval 24GAustin Slater 21G
STARTERSDerek Holland 2.0WARDereck Rodríguez 1.7WARMadison Bumgarner 1.6WARAndrew Suárez 1.0WARChris Stratton 0.8WAR
CBuster Posey 88GNick Hundley 83GAramis Garcia 7G
DHPablo Sandoval 4GBuster Posey 3GHunter Pence 2G
BULLPEN★ Will Smith 14svTony Watson 32hSam Dyson 15hReyes Moronta 12hMark Melancon 8hPierce Johnson 1hRay Black 1hHunter Strickland 0h
CBuster Posey 88 · Nick Hundley 83 · Aramis Garcia 7
1BBrandon Belt 104 · Pablo Sandoval 24 · Austin Slater 21
2BJoe Panik 94 · Alen Hanson 45 · Kelby Tomlinson 35
3BEvan Longoria 123 · Pablo Sandoval 36 · Chase d'Arnaud 10
SSBrandon Crawford 146 · Alen Hanson 16 · Kelby Tomlinson 13
LFHunter Pence 44 · Gorkys Hernández 37 · Grégor Blanco 34
CFGorkys Hernández 86 · Steven Duggar 40 · Grégor Blanco 23
RFAustin Slater 14 · Hunter Pence 12 · Grégor Blanco 11
DHPablo Sandoval 4 · Buster Posey 3 · Hunter Pence 2
SPDerek Holland 2.0 · Dereck Rodríguez 1.7 · Madison Bumgarner 1.6 · Andrew Suárez 1.0 · Chris Stratton 0.8
BP★ Will Smith 14 · Tony Watson 32 · Sam Dyson 15 · Reyes Moronta 12 · Mark Melancon 8 · Pierce Johnson 1 · Ray Black 1 · Hunter Strickland 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Brandon Crawford 31 FA-elig 1512.6 15.2 -6.3
Buster Posey 31 FA-elig 1052.6 22.2 -13.3
Derek Holland 31 FA-elig 372.0 1.8 +5.2
Will Smith 28 FA-elig 542.0 2.5 +4.4
Tony Watson 33 FA-elig 721.8 3.0 +3.2
Dereck Rodríguez 26 – 211.7 0.4 +5.6
Madison Bumgarner 28 FA-elig 221.6 12.0 -6.5
Brandon Belt 30 FA-elig 1121.5 17.2 -12.0
Andrew McCutchen↔ NYY 31 FA-elig 1301.3 12.4 -8.0
Reyes Moronta 25 pre-arb 691.1 0.5 +3.2
Andrew Suárez 25 – 291.0 0.5 +2.8
Ty Blach 27 pre-arb 500.8 0.6 +2.2
Chris Stratton 27 pre-arb 280.8 0.6 +2.0
Sam Dyson 30 FA-elig 740.6 4.4 -2.4
Alen Hanson 25 pre-arb 1100.6 0.5 +1.5
Steven Duggar 24 – 410.5 0.2 +1.5
Evan Longoria 32 FA-elig 1250.4 13.7 -12.2
Aramis Garcia 25 – 190.4 0.1 +1.2
Mark Melancon 33 FA-elig 410.4 20.0 -18.8
Mac Williamson 27 pre-arb 280.3 0.2 +0.9
Gorkys Hernández 30 FA-elig 1420.3 0.6 +0.5
Joe Panik 27 arb 1020.3 3.5 -2.5
Pablo Sandoval 31 FA-elig 920.3 0.5 +0.3
Ryder Jones 24 pre-arb 50.2 0.1 +0.7
Roberto Gómez 28 pre-arb 50.2 0.6 +0.1
Chase d'Arnaud 31 pre-arb 420.1 0.3 +0.2
Johnny Cueto 32 FA-elig 90.1 21.8 -21.4
Steven Okert 26 pre-arb 100.1 0.1 +0.3
Casey Kelly 28 pre-arb 70.1 0.1 +0.2
Ray Black 28 pre-arb 260.1 0.2 -0.0
Tyler Beede 25 – 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Miguel Gómez 25 pre-arb 9-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Abiatal Avelino 23 – 6-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Derek Law 27 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Pierce Johnson 27 pre-arb 37-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Austin Slater 25 pre-arb 74-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Hunter Strickland 29 arb 49-0.1 1.6 -2.1
Jeff Samardzija 33 FA-elig 10-0.2 19.8 -20.3
D.J. Snelten 26 – 4-0.2 0.0 -0.7
José A. Váldez 28 – 4-0.2 – –
Cory Gearrin↔ OAK 32 FA-elig 35-0.2 0.9 -1.7
Kelby Tomlinson 28 arb 63-0.2 0.6 -1.4
Josh Osich 29 arb 12-0.2 0.6 -1.4
Chris Shaw 24 – 22-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Nick Hundley 34 FA-elig 96-0.4 2.5 -3.9
Austin Jackson↔ NYM 31 – 59-0.5 0.8 -2.6
Grégor Blanco 34 FA-elig 68-0.5 1.0 -2.8
Hunter Pence 35 FA-elig 97-1.0 18.5 -21.8

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Derek Holland2.0
Will Smith2.0
Tony Watson1.8
Dereck Rodríguez1.7
Andrew McCutchen1.3
Andrew Suárez1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Matt Moore0.9
Eduardo Núñez0.6
Denard Span0.4
Jarrett Parker0.3
Tim Federowicz0.1
Kyle Crick0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$202.9M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Buster Posey317.161$22.2MFREE AGENT
Johnny Cueto3210.000$21.8MFREE AGENT
Mark Melancon337.098$20.0MFREE AGENT
Jeff Samardzija338.028$19.8MFREE AGENT
Hunter Pence3510.156$18.5MFREE AGENT
Brandon Belt306.128$17.2MFREE AGENT
Brandon Crawford316.094$15.2MFREE AGENT
Evan Longoria329.170$13.7MFREE AGENT
Andrew McCutchen318.123$12.4MCLUBFREE AGENT
Madison Bumgarner287.127$12.0MFREE AGENT
Tony Watson336.101$3.0MFREE AGENT
Nick Hundley349.059$2.5MFREE AGENT
Will Smith286.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Derek Holland318.105$1.8MFREE AGENT
Grégor Blanco347.142$1.0MFREE AGENT
Austin Jackson318.000$829kFREE AGENT
Pablo Sandoval319.042$545kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (3)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Sam Dyson303.142$4.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Panik273.100$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Gearrin324.136$946kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Hunter Strickland292.163$1.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty Blach271.030$565kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gorkys Hernández302.013$562kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelby Tomlinson282.001$560kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Osich292.075$558kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Stratton270.120$552kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roberto Gómez281.000$550kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reyes Moronta250.028$546kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pierce Johnson270.014$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alen Hanson251.038$457kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Suárez250.000$454kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dereck Rodríguez260.000$369kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Slater250.122$311kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase d'Arnaud312.045$252kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Duggar240.000$249kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ray Black280.032$214kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mac Williamson271.049$188kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Kelly282.083$123kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aramis Garcia250.000$105kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Shaw240.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Okert260.155$85kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryder Jones240.084$82kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Abiatal Avelino230.000$79kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Law271.110$56kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Gómez250.087$38kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
D.J. Snelten26–$29k
Tyler Beede250.000$21kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José A. Váldez28–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Giants 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.