RRosternomics

Rockies COL

GM: Jeff Bridich

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.05× league · TAB -3.4
-3.4TAB — talent above budget17th/30
+7.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)9th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-5.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag21st/30
45%dead money %22nd/30
0.558win %9th/30
31.7roster fWAR19th/30
-30surplus $M (value vs cost)16th/30
$137Mpayroll $M13th/30

2018: made playoffs · 91–72. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFCharlie Blackmon 151GDavid Dahl 8GRaimel Tapia 6G
LFGerardo Parra 111GDavid Dahl 34GIan Desmond 18G
RFCarlos González 117GDavid Dahl 30GNoel Cuevas 26G
SSTrevor Story 156GGarrett Hampson 8GPat Valaika 7G
2BDJ LeMahieu 128GPat Valaika 17GDaniel Castro 16G
3BNolan Arenado 152GRyan McMahon 17GPat Valaika 8G
1BIan Desmond 138GRyan McMahon 31GPat Valaika 15G
STARTERSGermán Márquez 4.8WARKyle Freeland 3.8WARJon Gray 2.2WARTyler Anderson 1.7WARAntonio Senzatela 0.9WAR
CChris Iannetta 99GTony Wolters 64GDrew Butera 54G
DHNolan Arenado 2GIan Desmond 2GCharlie Blackmon 1G
BULLPEN Wade Davis 43svAdam Ottavino 34hSeunghwan Oh 21hJake McGee 14hScott Oberg 14hBryan Shaw 13hChris Rusin 7hHarrison Musgrave 5h
CChris Iannetta 99 · Tony Wolters 64 · Drew Butera 54
1BIan Desmond 138 · Ryan McMahon 31 · Pat Valaika 15
2BDJ LeMahieu 128 · Pat Valaika 17 · Daniel Castro 16
3BNolan Arenado 152 · Ryan McMahon 17 · Pat Valaika 8
SSTrevor Story 156 · Garrett Hampson 8 · Pat Valaika 7
LFGerardo Parra 111 · David Dahl 34 · Ian Desmond 18
CFCharlie Blackmon 151 · David Dahl 8 · Raimel Tapia 6
RFCarlos González 117 · David Dahl 30 · Noel Cuevas 26
DHNolan Arenado 2 · Ian Desmond 2 · Charlie Blackmon 1
SPGermán Márquez 4.8 · Kyle Freeland 3.8 · Jon Gray 2.2 · Tyler Anderson 1.7 · Antonio Senzatela 0.9
BP Wade Davis 43 · Adam Ottavino 34 · Seunghwan Oh 21 · Jake McGee 14 · Scott Oberg 14 · Bryan Shaw 13 · Chris Rusin 7 · Harrison Musgrave 5

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Nolan Arenado 27 arb 1566.0 17.8 +2.5
Germán Márquez 23 pre-arb 334.8 0.6 +15.7
Trevor Story 25 pre-arb 1574.7 0.6 +15.5
Kyle Freeland 25 pre-arb 333.8 0.6 +12.4
Charlie Blackmon 31 FA-elig 1562.6 12.5 -3.8
Jon Gray 26 arb 312.2 0.6 +6.9
Adam Ottavino 32 FA-elig 751.9 7.0 -0.6
DJ LeMahieu 29 FA-elig 1281.8 8.5 -2.3
Tyler Anderson 28 pre-arb 331.7 0.6 +5.2
Carlos González 32 FA-elig 1321.5 5.0 +0.1
Scott Oberg 28 arb 561.3 0.6 +3.7
Antonio Senzatela 23 pre-arb 230.9 0.6 +2.6
Tony Wolters 26 pre-arb 740.9 0.6 +2.4
David Dahl 24 pre-arb 770.8 0.5 +2.4
Wade Davis 32 FA-elig 690.8 16.0 -13.3
Chris Iannetta 35 FA-elig 1100.8 3.6 -0.9
Yency Almonte 24 140.2 0.2 +0.5
Seunghwan Oh↔ TOR 35 pre-arb 250.2 0.6 +0.1
Garrett Hampson 23 240.2 0.1 +0.5
DJ Johnson 28 70.2 0.1 +0.5
Matt Holliday 38 FA-elig 250.1 0.1 +0.2
Chad Bettis 29 arb 270.0 2.0 -1.9
Jeff Hoffman 25 pre-arb 60.0 0.5 -0.5
Jerry Vasto↔ KCR 26 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Raimel Tapia 24 pre-arb 250.0 0.2 -0.1
Brooks Pounders 27 pre-arb 140.0 0.2 -0.2
Chris Rusin 31 FA-elig 490.0 1.3 -1.3
Sam Howard 25 4-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Drew Butera↔ KCR 34 FA-elig 10-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Ryan McMahon 23 pre-arb 91-0.1 0.5 -1.0
Mike Dunn 33 FA-elig 25-0.2 7.0 -7.6
Tom Murphy 27 pre-arb 37-0.2 0.3 -0.9
Jake McGee 31 FA-elig 61-0.3 7.0 -7.9
Bryan Shaw 30 FA-elig 61-0.3 7.5 -8.7
Daniel Castro 25 pre-arb 18-0.4 0.1 -1.4
Harrison Musgrave 26 pre-arb 35-0.4 0.4 -1.8
Mike Tauchman 27 pre-arb 21-0.4 0.5 -1.9
Gerardo Parra 31 FA-elig 142-0.4 10.0 -11.4
Ian Desmond 32 FA-elig 160-0.4 22.0 -23.4
Noel Cuevas 26 75-1.1 0.4 -4.2
Pat Valaika 25 pre-arb 68-1.3 0.6 -5.1

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
David Dahl0.8
Wade Davis0.8
Chris Iannetta0.8
Yency Almonte0.2
Seunghwan Oh0.2
Garrett Hampson0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Greg Holland1.1
Tyler Chatwood1.0
Pat Neshek1.0
Jonathan Lucroy0.7
Mark Reynolds0.6
Shane Carle0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$137.4M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Ian Desmond328.027$22.0MFREE AGENT
Wade Davis328.032$16.0MFREE AGENT
Gerardo Parra318.145$10.0MFREE AGENT
Bryan Shaw306.081$7.5MFREE AGENT
Jake McGee316.127$7.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Dunn337.079$7.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Ottavino326.087$7.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos González329.059$5.0MFREE AGENT
Chris Iannetta3511.013$3.6MFREE AGENT
Drew Butera347.018$371kFREE AGENT
Matt Holliday3814.000$114kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Nolan Arenado274.155$17.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Blackmon315.102$12.5MFREE AGENT
DJ LeMahieu295.128$8.5MFREE AGENT
Chad Bettis293.096$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Rusin313.092$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seunghwan Oh353.000$599kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Tyler Anderson282.065$555kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Gray262.062$555kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Story252.000$555kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Oberg282.080$555kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Valaika251.022$550kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Antonio Senzatela231.000$550kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Germán Márquez231.023$550kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Wolters261.161$550kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Freeland251.000$550kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan McMahon230.039$547kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Tauchman270.047$547kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Hoffman250.155$547kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Dahl241.007$452kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Harrison Musgrave260.148$431kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Noel Cuevas260.000$375kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Murphy271.004$252kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yency Almonte240.000$229kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brooks Pounders270.082$188kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raimel Tapia240.136$158kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Hampson230.000$141kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Howard250.000$135kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Castro250.139$105kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
DJ Johnson280.000$79kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Vasto26$13k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rockies 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3