RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Michael Rizzo

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 6 in this regime · payroll 0.72× league · TAB -2.0
-2.0TAB — talent above budget19th/30
+2.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)12th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-3.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/30
38%dead money %17th/30
0.497win %15th/30
28.1roster fWAR20th/30
+2surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$69Mpayroll $M20th/30

Roster

CFRick Ankiel 105GRoger Bernadina 56GJayson Werth 19G
LFLaynce Nix 73GJonny Gomes 73GMichael Morse 55G
RFJayson Werth 134GLaynce Nix 12GJonny Gomes 11G
SSIan Desmond 152GAlex Cora 16GBrian Bixler 2G
2BDanny Espinosa 158GAlex Cora 5GSteve Lombardozzi Jr. 3G
3BRyan Zimmerman 97GAlex Cora 31GBrian Bixler 14G
1BMichael Morse 85GAdam LaRoche 43GChris Marrero 31G
STARTERSJordan Zimmermann 3.4WARLivan Hernandez 1.7WARStephen Strasburg 1.0WARJohn Lannan 0.7WARTommy Milone 0.6WAR
CWilson Ramos 108GIvan Rodriguez 37GJesus Flores 22G
DHMatt Stairs 5GLaynce Nix 2GMichael Morse 1G
BULLPEN★ Drew Storen 43svTyler Clippard 38hSean Burnett 15hTodd Coffey 10hHenry Alberto Rodriguez 10hRyan Mattheus 8hDoug Slaten 3hCollin Balester 2h
CWilson Ramos 108 · Ivan Rodriguez 37 · Jesus Flores 22
1BMichael Morse 85 · Adam LaRoche 43 · Chris Marrero 31
2BDanny Espinosa 158 · Alex Cora 5 · Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 3
3BRyan Zimmerman 97 · Alex Cora 31 · Brian Bixler 14
SSIan Desmond 152 · Alex Cora 16 · Brian Bixler 2
LFLaynce Nix 73 · Jonny Gomes 73 · Michael Morse 55
CFRick Ankiel 105 · Roger Bernadina 56 · Jayson Werth 19
RFJayson Werth 134 · Laynce Nix 12 · Jonny Gomes 11
DHMatt Stairs 5 · Laynce Nix 2 · Michael Morse 1
SPJordan Zimmermann 3.4 · Livan Hernandez 1.7 · Stephen Strasburg 1.0 · John Lannan 0.7 · Tommy Milone 0.6
BP★ Drew Storen 43 · Tyler Clippard 38 · Sean Burnett 15 · Todd Coffey 10 · Henry Alberto Rodriguez 10 · Ryan Mattheus 8 · Doug Slaten 3 · Collin Balester 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Wilson Ramos 23 pre-arb 1134.3 0.4 +10.1
Jordan Zimmermann 25 pre-arb 293.4 0.4 +7.9
Danny Espinosa 24 pre-arb 1583.2 0.4 +7.5
Michael Morse 29 FA-elig 1462.9 1.1 +5.9
Jayson Werth 32 FA-elig 1502.2 10.6 -5.1
Ryan Zimmerman 26 FA-elig 1012.1 9.0 -4.0
Livan Hernandez 36 FA-elig 311.7 1.2 +3.0
Tyler Clippard 26 arb 721.5 0.4 +3.2
Jason Marquis↔ ARI 32 FA-elig 251.4 6.7 -3.3
Rick Ankiel 31 FA-elig 1221.2 1.5 +1.4
Ian Desmond 25 pre-arb 1541.0 0.4 +2.0
Stephen Strasburg 22 pre-arb 51.0 4.4 -2.0
John Lannan 26 arb 330.7 2.8 -0.9
Drew Storen 23 pre-arb 730.7 0.4 +1.4
Tom Gorzelanny 28 FA-elig 300.6 2.1 -0.6
Tommy Milone 24 – 50.6 0.4 +1.0
Laynce Nix 30 FA-elig 1240.5 0.7 +0.5
Roger Bernadina 27 pre-arb 910.4 0.4 +0.6
Craig Stammen 27 pre-arb 70.4 0.4 +0.6
Todd Coffey 30 FA-elig 690.3 1.4 -0.5
Jonny Gomes↔ CIN 30 FA-elig 430.3 0.6 +0.2
Henry Alberto Rodriguez 24 pre-arb 590.3 0.4 +0.4
Jerry Hairston Jr.↔ MIL 35 FA-elig 750.3 1.2 -0.6
Ivan Rodriguez 39 FA-elig 440.3 3.0 -2.4
Ross Detwiler 25 pre-arb 150.2 0.4 +0.1
Cole Kimball 25 pre-arb 120.1 0.4 -0.1
Jesus Flores 26 arb 300.1 0.8 -0.4
Brad Peacock 23 – 30.1 0.4 -0.3
Atahualpa Severino 26 pre-arb 60.0 0.4 -0.3
Brian Broderick 24 pre-arb 110.0 0.4 -0.4
Alex Cora 35 FA-elig 910.0 0.9 -0.9
Chien-Ming Wang 31 FA-elig 11-0.0 1.2 -1.2
Corey Brown 25 – 3-0.1 – –
Chad Gaudin 28 FA-elig 10-0.1 0.9 -1.1
Yunesky Maya 29 pre-arb 10-0.1 2.0 -2.3
Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 22 – 13-0.2 – –
Ryan Mattheus 27 arb 35-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Brian Bixler 28 – 79-0.2 – –
Adam LaRoche 31 FA-elig 43-0.3 7.0 -7.7
Doug Slaten 31 arb 31-0.4 0.7 -1.6
Sean Burnett 28 FA-elig 69-0.5 1.4 -2.5
Collin Balester 25 – 23-0.5 – –
Matt Stairs 43 FA-elig 56-0.6 0.8 -2.4
Chris Marrero 22 – 31-0.7 0.4 -2.0

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Jayson Werth2.2
Rick Ankiel1.2
Tom Gorzelanny0.6
Tommy Milone0.6
Laynce Nix0.5
Todd Coffey0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Adam Dunn3.0
Josh Willingham2.5
Joel Peralta0.7
Nyjer Morgan0.7
Matt Capps0.5
Cristian Guzman0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$69.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Jayson Werth327.102$10.6M$13.0M$16.0M$20.0M$21.0M$21.0M$21.0M
Adam LaRoche317.000$7.0M$8.0M$10.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Marquis3210.012$6.7MFREE AGENT
Ivan Rodriguez3919.109$3.0MFREE AGENT
Rick Ankiel317.033$1.5M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Jerry Hairston Jr.3513.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Livan Hernandez3613.097$1.2MFREE AGENT
Michael Morse296.000$1.1M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Alex Cora3512.129$900kFREE AGENT
Matt Stairs4315.077$850kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Ryan Zimmerman265.032$9.0MFREE AGENT
John Lannan263.011$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Gorzelanny283.160$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Coffey305.024$1.4MFREE AGENT
Sean Burnett284.085$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chien-Ming Wang315.159$1.2MFREE AGENT
Chad Gaudin285.164$900kFREE AGENT
Jesus Flores263.158$750kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Laynce Nix305.070$700kFREE AGENT
Doug Slaten313.043$695kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonny Gomes305.097$627kFREE AGENT
Ryan Mattheus273.123$414kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Bixler283.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Stephen Strasburg220.118$4.4MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yunesky Maya290.070$2.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Clippard261.148$443kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Desmond251.027$442kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Storen230.140$418kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Espinosa240.033$415kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Zimmermann251.154$415kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Alberto Rodriguez242.000$415kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilson Ramos230.047$415kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ross Detwiler251.088$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Stammen271.126$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roger Bernadina272.032$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Atahualpa Severino260.028$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Kimball251.138$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Broderick240.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Peacock230.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Marrero220.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Milone240.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Collin Balester251.016—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Brown250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Lombardozzi Jr.220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.