WSN⇄SDP

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net +$6.4M net +0.8

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2011 odds 4% → 4% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Erik DavisP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

#405 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Jed Hoyer net −$6.4M net -0.8

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $17M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2011 odds 8% → 7% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alberto González2B/SS·28y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

-0.05/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.