RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Michael Rizzo

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 5 in this regime · payroll 0.68× league · TAB -3.1
-3.1TAB — talent above budget20th/30
-7.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)23rd/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-3.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/30
44%dead money %24th/30
0.426win %24th/30
26.3roster fWAR23rd/30
-5surplus $M (value vs cost)13th/30
$62Mpayroll $M23rd/30

Roster

CFNyjer Morgan 134GRoger Bernadina 26GJustin Maxwell 20G
LFJosh Willingham 108GWillie Harris 46GRoger Bernadina 44G
RFRoger Bernadina 77GMichael Morse 72GWillie Harris 43G
SSIan Desmond 149GAlberto Gonzalez 16GDanny Espinosa 2G
2BAdam Kennedy 86GAlberto Gonzalez 38GDanny Espinosa 25G
3BRyan Zimmerman 137GAlberto Gonzalez 27GAdam Kennedy 8G
1BAdam Dunn 153GAdam Kennedy 51GMichael Morse 19G
STARTERSLivan Hernandez 2.7WARStephen Strasburg 2.1WARCraig Stammen 1.3WARJohn Lannan 0.7WARScott Olsen 0.2WAR
CIvan Rodriguez 102GWil Nieves 51GWilson Ramos 22G
DHAdam Dunn 2GJosh Willingham 2GWillie Harris 1G
BULLPEN★ Tyler Clippard 1svSean Burnett 20hDrew Storen 10hJoel Peralta 9hBrian Bruney 3hMiguel Batista 2hDoug Slaten 2hTyler Walker 1h
CIvan Rodriguez 102 · Wil Nieves 51 · Wilson Ramos 22
1BAdam Dunn 153 · Adam Kennedy 51 · Michael Morse 19
2BAdam Kennedy 86 · Alberto Gonzalez 38 · Danny Espinosa 25
3BRyan Zimmerman 137 · Alberto Gonzalez 27 · Adam Kennedy 8
SSIan Desmond 149 · Alberto Gonzalez 16 · Danny Espinosa 2
LFJosh Willingham 108 · Willie Harris 46 · Roger Bernadina 44
CFNyjer Morgan 134 · Roger Bernadina 26 · Justin Maxwell 20
RFRoger Bernadina 77 · Michael Morse 72 · Willie Harris 43
DHAdam Dunn 2 · Josh Willingham 2 · Willie Harris 1
SPLivan Hernandez 2.7 · Stephen Strasburg 2.1 · Craig Stammen 1.3 · John Lannan 0.7 · Scott Olsen 0.2
BP★ Tyler Clippard 1 · Sean Burnett 20 · Drew Storen 10 · Joel Peralta 9 · Brian Bruney 3 · Miguel Batista 2 · Doug Slaten 2 · Tyler Walker 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2010 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ryan Zimmerman 25 arb 1426.6 6.3 +9.1
Adam Dunn 30 FA-elig 1583.0 12.0 -4.9
Livan Hernandez 35 FA-elig 352.7 0.9 +5.3
Josh Willingham 31 FA-elig 1142.5 4.6 +1.3
Stephen Strasburg 21 pre-arb 122.1 2.0 +3.0
Tyler Clippard 25 arb 781.4 0.4 +2.8
Craig Stammen 26 pre-arb 361.3 0.4 +2.6
Sean Burnett 27 FA-elig 731.2 0.8 +1.9
Michael Morse 28 arb 980.9 0.4 +1.8
Ivan Rodriguez 38 FA-elig 1110.9 3.0 -1.0
Ian Desmond 24 pre-arb 1540.8 0.4 +1.5
Joel Peralta 34 – 390.7 – –
John Lannan 25 arb 250.7 0.5 +1.1
Drew Storen 22 – 540.7 0.4 +1.2
Nyjer Morgan 29 arb 1360.7 0.4 +1.1
Matt Capps↔ MIN 26 arb 470.5 2.2 -1.0
Danny Espinosa 23 – 280.5 – –
Doug Slaten 30 – 490.3 – –
Cristian Guzman↔ TEX 32 FA-elig 890.3 6.8 -6.1
Justin Maxwell 26 – 670.3 – –
Wilson Ramos↔ MIN 22 – 150.3 0.3 +0.4
Adam Kennedy 34 FA-elig 1350.3 1.2 -0.7
Roger Bernadina 26 – 1340.2 – –
Scott Olsen 26 arb 170.2 1.0 -0.6
Carlos Maldonado 31 – 40.2 – –
Tyler Walker 34 FA-elig 240.2 0.7 -0.3
J.D. Martin 27 – 100.1 – –
Matt Chico 27 – 10.1 – –
Collin Balester 24 – 170.1 – –
Alberto Gonzalez 27 arb 1150.1 0.4 -0.3
Jesse English 25 pre-arb 70.1 0.4 -0.2
Jamie Burke 38 – 1-0.0 – –
Luis Atilano 25 – 16-0.0 – –
Yunesky Maya 28 pre-arb 5-0.0 2.0 -2.1
Joe Bisenius 27 – 5-0.1 – –
Wil Nieves 32 FA-elig 59-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Willy Taveras 28 FA-elig 27-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Jason Bergmann 28 arb 4-0.2 0.8 -1.2
Willie Harris 32 FA-elig 132-0.2 1.5 -2.0
Brian Bruney 28 FA-elig 19-0.2 1.5 -2.0
Garrett Mock 27 pre-arb 1-0.3 0.4 -1.0
Jordan Zimmermann 24 pre-arb 7-0.3 0.4 -1.1
Kevin Mench 32 – 27-0.3 – –
Ross Detwiler 24 arb 8-0.4 0.4 -1.2
Miguel Batista 39 FA-elig 58-0.5 1.0 -2.1
Jason Marquis 31 FA-elig 17-0.5 7.5 -8.6

Key additions (new vs 2009)

PlayerfWAR
Stephen Strasburg2.1
Ivan Rodriguez0.9
Joel Peralta0.7
Drew Storen0.7
Matt Capps0.5
Danny Espinosa0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2009)

Player2009 fWAR
Nick Johnson1.0
Jesus Flores0.8
Joel Hanrahan0.4
Ronnie Belliard0.3
Shairon Martis0.2
Joe Beimel0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2010 payroll
$62.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2010, 2010–2016. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Adam Dunn309.000$12.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Marquis3110.000$7.5M$6.7MFREE AGENT
Cristian Guzman3211.000$6.8MFREE AGENT
Josh Willingham316.000$4.6MFREE AGENT
Ivan Rodriguez3819.000$3.0M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Brian Bruney286.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Willie Harris329.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Adam Kennedy3411.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Miguel Batista3918.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Livan Hernandez3514.000$900k$1.2MFREE AGENT
Sean Burnett276.000$775k$1.4M$2.3MFREE AGENT$86k
Wil Nieves328.000$700kFREE AGENT
Tyler Walker348.000$650kFREE AGENT
Willy Taveras286.000$400kFREE AGENT
Jamie Burke389.000—FREE AGENT
Kevin Mench328.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Ryan Zimmerman255.000$6.3MFREE AGENT
Matt Capps265.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Scott Olsen265.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Bergmann285.000$750kFREE AGENT
John Lannan253.000$458kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nyjer Morgan293.000$426kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alberto Gonzalez273.000$416kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Morse285.000$410kFREE AGENT
Tyler Clippard253.000$401kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ross Detwiler243.000$400kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Peralta343.132—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Bisenius273.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Maxwell263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Chico273.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Slaten304.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Stephen Strasburg210.000$2.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yunesky Maya280.000$2.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Mock272.000$411kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Stammen261.000$402kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Zimmermann241.000$401kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Desmond241.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse English250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Storen220.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilson Ramos220.000$273kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Maldonado31–—
Collin Balester242.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.D. Martin27–—
Luis Atilano25–—
Danny Espinosa230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roger Bernadina262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2010; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.