RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Michael Rizzo

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.64× league · TAB -8.3
-8.3TAB — talent above budget26th/30
-17.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)29th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars28th/30
-6.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag27th/30
47%dead money %20th/30
0.364win %30th/30
20.5roster fWAR28th/30
-5surplus $M (value vs cost)15th/30
$58Mpayroll $M26th/30

Roster

CFWillie Harris 63GNyjer Morgan 56GElijah Dukes 35G
LFJosh Willingham 87GAdam Dunn 62GWillie Harris 45G
RFElijah Dukes 65GAustin Kearns 54GJosh Willingham 35G
SSCristian Guzman 117GAlberto Gonzalez 41GIan Desmond 17G
2BAlberto Gonzalez 55GWillie Harris 19GPete Orr 18G
3BRyan Zimmerman 154GPete Orr 4GWillie Harris 4G
1BAdam Dunn 67GRonnie Belliard 15GMichael Morse 11G
STARTERSJordan Zimmermann 1.9WARJohn Lannan 1.4WARCraig Stammen 1.1WARRoss Detwiler 1.1WARGarrett Mock 0.9WAR
CJosh Bard 79GWil Nieves 71GJesus Flores 24G
DHAdam Dunn 6GCristian Guzman 2GAlberto Gonzalez 1G
BULLPEN★ Mike MacDougal 20svSean Burnett 11hJason Bergmann 10hRon Villone 7hJulian Tavarez 5hTyler Clippard 3hSaul Rivera 2hLogan Kensing 1h
CJosh Bard 79 · Wil Nieves 71 · Jesus Flores 24
1BAdam Dunn 67 · Ronnie Belliard 15 · Michael Morse 11
2BAlberto Gonzalez 55 · Willie Harris 19 · Pete Orr 18
3BRyan Zimmerman 154 · Pete Orr 4 · Willie Harris 4
SSCristian Guzman 117 · Alberto Gonzalez 41 · Ian Desmond 17
LFJosh Willingham 87 · Adam Dunn 62 · Willie Harris 45
CFWillie Harris 63 · Nyjer Morgan 56 · Elijah Dukes 35
RFElijah Dukes 65 · Austin Kearns 54 · Josh Willingham 35
DHAdam Dunn 6 · Cristian Guzman 2 · Alberto Gonzalez 1
SPJordan Zimmermann 1.9 · John Lannan 1.4 · Craig Stammen 1.1 · Ross Detwiler 1.1 · Garrett Mock 0.9
BP★ Mike MacDougal 20 · Sean Burnett 11 · Jason Bergmann 10 · Ron Villone 7 · Julian Tavarez 5 · Tyler Clippard 3 · Saul Rivera 2 · Logan Kensing 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ryan Zimmerman 24 arb 1576.6 3.3 +12.3
Nyjer Morgan↔ PIT 28 pre-arb 492.9 0.2 +6.7
Josh Willingham 30 arb 1332.4 3.0 +2.8
Jordan Zimmermann 23 – 161.9 0.4 +4.1
John Lannan 24 pre-arb 331.4 0.4 +2.9
Ross Detwiler 23 pre-arb 151.1 0.4 +2.3
Craig Stammen 25 – 201.1 0.3 +2.2
Adam Dunn 29 FA-elig 1591.0 8.0 -5.6
Nick Johnson↔ MIA 30 FA-elig 981.0 4.1 -1.8
Justin Maxwell 25 pre-arb 400.9 0.4 +1.8
Livan Hernandez↔ NYM 34 – 80.9 0.2 +2.1
Garrett Mock 26 pre-arb 280.9 0.4 +1.8
Jesus Flores 24 pre-arb 290.8 0.4 +1.6
Cristian Guzman 31 FA-elig 1350.8 8.0 -6.1
Willie Harris 31 FA-elig 1370.6 1.5 +0.0
Joel Hanrahan↔ PIT 27 pre-arb 340.4 0.2 +0.8
Ian Desmond 23 pre-arb 210.4 0.4 +0.6
Michael Morse 27 arb 320.4 0.4 +0.5
Ronnie Belliard↔ LAD 34 FA-elig 860.3 1.5 -0.7
Scott Olsen 25 arb 110.3 2.8 -2.2
Shairon Martis 22 pre-arb 150.2 0.4 +0.2
Joe Beimel↔ COL 32 FA-elig 450.2 1.3 -0.8
Anderson Hernandez↔ NYM 26 arb 770.2 0.3 +0.1
Jesus Colome↔ MIL 31 – 160.1 – –
Roger Bernadina 25 pre-arb 30.1 0.4 -0.1
Julian Tavarez 36 FA-elig 420.1 0.5 -0.2
Marco Estrada 25 pre-arb 40.0 0.4 -0.3
Wil Nieves 31 FA-elig 720.0 0.4 -0.4
Wilfredo Ledezma 28 FA-elig 5-0.0 0.8 -0.8
Kip Wells↔ CIN 32 – 23-0.0 – –
Tyler Clippard 24 pre-arb 41-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Steven Shell 26 pre-arb 4-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Zack Segovia 26 – 8-0.0 – –
J.D. Martin 26 – 16-0.1 – –
Corey Patterson↔ MIL 29 – 5-0.1 – –
Pete Orr 30 – 27-0.1 – –
Sean Burnett↔ PIT 26 arb 33-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Austin Kearns 29 FA-elig 80-0.1 8.0 -8.3
Victor Garate 24 – 4-0.1 – –
Jamie Burke↔ SEA 37 – 6-0.2 – –
Mike MacDougal↔ CHW 32 FA-elig 52-0.2 2.4 -2.8
Jason Bergmann 27 arb 56-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Elijah Dukes 25 pre-arb 107-0.3 0.4 -1.1
Jorge Sosa 32 – 18-0.3 – –
Josh Bard 31 FA-elig 90-0.3 1.6 -2.4
Lastings Milledge↔ PIT 24 arb 7-0.3 0.0 -0.8
Daniel Cabrera↔ ARI 28 arb 9-0.3 1.6 -2.3
Jorge Padilla 29 – 29-0.3 – –
Saul Rivera 31 arb 30-0.4 0.5 -1.4
Mike Hinckley 26 pre-arb 14-0.4 0.4 -1.4
Ron Villone 39 – 63-0.5 – –
Alex Cintron 30 – 21-0.5 – –
Collin Balester 23 pre-arb 7-0.6 0.4 -1.8
Logan Kensing↔ MIA 26 arb 26-0.6 0.5 -2.0
Alberto Gonzalez 26 pre-arb 105-0.7 0.4 -2.0

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Nyjer Morgan2.9
Josh Willingham2.4
Jordan Zimmermann1.9
Ross Detwiler1.1
Craig Stammen1.1
Adam Dunn1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
Tim Redding1.4
Jon Rauch1.3
Odalis Perez1.3
Ryan Langerhans1.0
Shawn Hill0.9
Chad Cordero0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$58.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Austin Kearns297.000$8.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Dunn298.000$8.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Cristian Guzman3110.000$8.0M$6.8MFREE AGENT
Nick Johnson308.000$4.1MFREE AGENT
Mike MacDougal328.000$2.4MFREE AGENT
Josh Bard317.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Willie Harris318.000$1.5M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Ronnie Belliard3411.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Joe Beimel328.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Wilfredo Ledezma286.000$750kFREE AGENT
Julian Tavarez3616.000$500kFREE AGENT
Wil Nieves317.000$445k$700kFREE AGENT
Livan Hernandez3413.000$179k$900k$1.2MFREE AGENT
Ron Villone3914.000—FREE AGENT
Kip Wells3210.000—FREE AGENT
Corey Patterson299.000—FREE AGENT
Alex Cintron308.000—FREE AGENT
Jesus Colome318.000—FREE AGENT
Jamie Burke378.000—FREE AGENT
Jorge Sosa327.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Ryan Zimmerman244.000$3.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Willingham305.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Scott Olsen254.000$2.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Cabrera285.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Logan Kensing265.000$536kFREE AGENT
Saul Rivera313.000$475kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Bergmann274.000$439kARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Morse274.000$407kARB 3FREE AGENT
Anderson Hernandez264.000$250kARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Burnett265.000$190kFREE AGENT
Lastings Milledge243.000$49kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Orr304.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Steven Shell261.000$425kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Lannan242.000$424kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elijah Dukes252.000$416kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesus Flores242.000$416kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Collin Balester231.000$410kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roger Bernadina251.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Hinckley261.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Zimmermann230.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alberto Gonzalez262.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shairon Martis221.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Desmond230.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Maxwell252.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Mock261.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Clippard242.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ross Detwiler232.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Estrada251.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Stammen250.000$299kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Hanrahan272.000$213kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nyjer Morgan282.000$168kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Padilla29–—
Zack Segovia262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.D. Martin26–—
Victor Garate24–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.