RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Jim Bowden

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.6× league · TAB -11.1
-11.1TAB — talent above budget28th/30
-15.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)29th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars30th/30
-9.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag28th/30
66%dead money %30th/30
0.366win %30th/30
16.7roster fWAR30th/30
-15surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/30
$52Mpayroll $M27th/30

Roster

CFLastings Milledge 134GWillie Harris 17GRoger Bernadina 14G
LFWillie Harris 86GWily Mo Peña 54GRyan Langerhans 24G
RFAustin Kearns 85GElijah Dukes 69GRyan Langerhans 12G
SSCristian Guzman 136GAlberto Gonzalez 26GPete Orr 8G
2BEmilio Bonifácio 37GRonnie Belliard 29GAnderson Hernandez 16G
3BRyan Zimmerman 104GRonnie Belliard 31GAaron Boone 16G
1BAaron Boone 54GDmitri Young 38GNick Johnson 35G
STARTERSTim Redding 1.4WAROdalis Perez 1.3WARShawn Hill 0.9WARJohn Lannan 0.8WARCollin Balester 0.7WAR
CJesus Flores 82GWil Nieves 61GJohnny Estrada 14G
DHDmitri Young 6GWily Mo Peña 2GPaul Lo Duca 1G
BULLPEN★ Joel Hanrahan 9svSaul Rivera 17hCharlie Manning 7hSteven Shell 7hRay King 4hMike Hinckley 4hJesus Colome 1hGarrett Mock 0h
CJesus Flores 82 · Wil Nieves 61 · Johnny Estrada 14
1BAaron Boone 54 · Dmitri Young 38 · Nick Johnson 35
2BEmilio Bonifácio 37 · Ronnie Belliard 29 · Anderson Hernandez 16
3BRyan Zimmerman 104 · Ronnie Belliard 31 · Aaron Boone 16
SSCristian Guzman 136 · Alberto Gonzalez 26 · Pete Orr 8
LFWillie Harris 86 · Wily Mo Peña 54 · Ryan Langerhans 24
CFLastings Milledge 134 · Willie Harris 17 · Roger Bernadina 14
RFAustin Kearns 85 · Elijah Dukes 69 · Ryan Langerhans 12
DHDmitri Young 6 · Wily Mo Peña 2 · Paul Lo Duca 1
SPTim Redding 1.4 · Odalis Perez 1.3 · Shawn Hill 0.9 · John Lannan 0.8 · Collin Balester 0.7
BP★ Joel Hanrahan 9 · Saul Rivera 17 · Charlie Manning 7 · Steven Shell 7 · Ray King 4 · Mike Hinckley 4 · Jesus Colome 1 · Garrett Mock 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2008 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Willie Harris 30 FA-elig 1403.0 0.8 +6.1
Cristian Guzman 30 FA-elig 1382.8 4.2 +2.2
Elijah Dukes 24 pre-arb 812.7 0.4 +5.9
Ryan Zimmerman 23 arb 1061.9 0.5 +3.9
Ronnie Belliard 33 FA-elig 961.5 1.6 +1.9
Tim Redding 30 FA-elig 351.4 1.0 +2.2
Jon Rauch↔ ARI 29 FA-elig 481.3 0.8 +2.2
Odalis Perez 30 FA-elig 311.3 0.8 +2.1
Saul Rivera 30 pre-arb 761.2 0.4 +2.4
Wil Nieves 30 – 681.1 0.4 +2.2
Ryan Langerhans 28 – 731.0 0.5 +1.7
Shawn Hill 27 arb 120.9 0.4 +1.8
Nick Johnson 29 FA-elig 380.9 5.5 -3.5
John Lannan 23 – 310.8 – –
Collin Balester 22 – 150.7 – –
Joel Hanrahan 26 pre-arb 690.7 0.4 +1.1
Alberto Gonzalez↔ NYY 25 – 170.6 – –
Anderson Hernandez 25 – 280.5 – –
Garrett Mock 25 – 260.4 – –
Austin Kearns 28 FA-elig 860.4 5.0 -4.1
Mike Hinckley 25 – 140.3 – –
Steven Shell 25 – 390.2 – –
Jason Bergmann 26 arb 300.2 0.4 +0.1
Jesus Colome 30 FA-elig 610.2 1.2 -0.8
Tyler Clippard 23 – 20.1 0.4 -0.2
Chad Cordero 26 arb 60.0 6.2 -6.1
Luis Ayala↔ NYM 30 arb 62-0.0 1.3 -1.4
Lastings Milledge 23 pre-arb 138-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Luke Montz 24 – 10-0.1 – –
Jesus Flores 23 pre-arb 90-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Brian Sanches 29 – 12-0.1 – –
Aaron Boone 35 FA-elig 104-0.1 1.0 -1.3
Shairon Martis 21 – 5-0.2 – –
Matt Chico 25 pre-arb 11-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Levale Speigner 27 – 7-0.2 – –
Emilio Bonifácio↔ ARI 23 – 41-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Chris Schroder 29 – 4-0.2 – –
Ray King 34 FA-elig 12-0.2 0.8 -1.4
Marco Estrada 24 – 11-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Pete Orr 29 – 49-0.3 – –
Dmitri Young 34 FA-elig 50-0.3 5.0 -5.6
Johnny Estrada 32 FA-elig 23-0.3 1.2 -1.9
Roger Bernadina 24 – 26-0.5 – –
Rob Mackowiak 32 FA-elig 38-0.5 1.5 -2.7
Michael O'Connor 27 – 5-0.5 – –
Kory Casto 26 – 66-0.6 – –
Charlie Manning 29 – 57-0.7 – –
Paul Lo Duca↔ MIA 36 FA-elig 46-1.1 3.4 -6.0
Felipe Lopez↔ STL 28 FA-elig 100-1.3 3.4 -6.4
Wily Mo Peña 26 FA-elig 64-1.5 2.0 -5.3

Key additions (new vs 2007)

PlayerfWAR
Willie Harris3.0
Elijah Dukes2.7
Odalis Perez1.3
Wil Nieves1.1
Nick Johnson0.9
Collin Balester0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2007)

Player2007 fWAR
Ryan Church2.8
Brian Schneider0.6
Nook Logan0.5
D'Angelo Jimenez0.3
Jonathan Albaladejo0.3
Billy Traber0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2008 payroll
$52.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2008, 2008–2014. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Nick Johnson297.000$5.5M$4.1MFREE AGENT
Austin Kearns286.000$5.0M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Dmitri Young3412.000$5.0MFREE AGENT
Cristian Guzman309.000$4.2M$8.0M$6.8MFREE AGENT
Paul Lo Duca3610.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Felipe Lopez287.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Wily Mo Peña266.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Ronnie Belliard3310.000$1.6M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Rob Mackowiak327.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Jesus Colome307.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Johnny Estrada327.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Aaron Boone3511.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Tim Redding307.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Odalis Perez3010.000$850kFREE AGENT
Ray King349.000$850kFREE AGENT
Willie Harris307.000$800k$1.5M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Jon Rauch296.000$778kFREE AGENT
Ryan Langerhans286.000$500kFREE AGENT
Wil Nieves306.000$400k$445k$700kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Chad Cordero265.000$6.2MFREE AGENT
Luis Ayala305.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Ryan Zimmerman233.000$465kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Bergmann263.000$404kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Hill274.000$402kARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Orr293.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anderson Hernandez253.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Saul Rivera302.000$436kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Chico251.000$409kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lastings Milledge232.000$402kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesus Flores231.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Hanrahan261.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elijah Dukes241.000$392kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Clippard231.000$390kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Emilio Bonifácio231.000$326kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Estrada240.000$87kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Manning29–—
Brian Sanches292.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Hinckley250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Shell250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Collin Balester220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Levale Speigner271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Montz24–—
Garrett Mock250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael O'Connor27–—
Chris Schroder29–—
Kory Casto26–—
John Lannan231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shairon Martis210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roger Bernadina240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alberto Gonzalez251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2008; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.