WSN⇄NYM

WSNWSN Jim Bowden net +$4.8M net +0.5

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $35M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2008 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Anderson Hernández2B/SS·25y·B/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $35M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.0/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.15/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Omar Minaya net −$4.8M net -0.5

received +$1.6M−$0.8M ± $10M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2008 odds 57% → 55% (-2.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis AyalaP·30y·R/R

+$1.7M−$0.8M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.