SFG⇄WSN

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net +$1.6M net +0.5

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2006 odds 4% → 5% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike StantonP·39y·L/L

−$2.1M−$2.1M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.9 seasons

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Jim Bowden net −$1.6M net -0.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2006 odds 2% → 2% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shairon MartisP·19y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.