RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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President of baseball ops: Mark Shapiro · GM: Ross Atkins

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.08× league · TAB +8.7
+8.7TAB — talent above budget7th/30
+8.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)9th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars10th/30
-5.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/30
26%dead money %11th/30
0.562win %9th/30
43.9roster fWAR6th/30
+6surplus $M (value vs cost)9th/30
$137Mpayroll $M14th/30

Roster

CFRandal Grichuk 96GGeorge Springer 40GJarrod Dyson 38G
LFLourdes Gurriel Jr. 119GCorey Dickerson 77GTeoscar Hernández 58G
RFTeoscar Hernández 110GRandal Grichuk 71GCavan Biggio 15G
SSBo Bichette 148GMarcus Semien 21G
2BMarcus Semien 147GBreyvic Valera 10GCavan Biggio 7G
3BSantiago Espinal 81GCavan Biggio 52GBreyvic Valera 21G
1BVladimir Guerrero Jr. 133GLourdes Gurriel Jr. 11GCavan Biggio 7G
STARTERSRobbie Ray 3.9WARSteven Matz 2.7WARHyun Jin Ryu 2.4WARAlek Manoah 2.0WARJosé Berríos 1.7WAR
CReese McGuire 73GDanny Jansen 69GAlejandro Kirk 44G
DHGeorge Springer 38GVladimir Guerrero Jr. 28GRowdy Tellez 19G
BULLPEN★ Jordan Romano 23svTim Mayza 19hAdam Cimber 7hTrevor Richards 6hJoakim Soria 5hRafael Dolis 3hTayler Saucedo 1hTrent Thornton 0h
CReese McGuire 73 · Danny Jansen 69 · Alejandro Kirk 44
1BVladimir Guerrero Jr. 133 · Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 11 · Cavan Biggio 7
2BMarcus Semien 147 · Breyvic Valera 10 · Cavan Biggio 7
3BSantiago Espinal 81 · Cavan Biggio 52 · Breyvic Valera 21
SSBo Bichette 148 · Marcus Semien 21
LFLourdes Gurriel Jr. 119 · Corey Dickerson 77 · Teoscar Hernández 58
CFRandal Grichuk 96 · George Springer 40 · Jarrod Dyson 38
RFTeoscar Hernández 110 · Randal Grichuk 71 · Cavan Biggio 15
DHGeorge Springer 38 · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 28 · Rowdy Tellez 19
SPRobbie Ray 3.9 · Steven Matz 2.7 · Hyun Jin Ryu 2.4 · Alek Manoah 2.0 · José Berríos 1.7
BP★ Jordan Romano 23 · Tim Mayza 19 · Adam Cimber 7 · Trevor Richards 6 · Joakim Soria 5 · Rafael Dolis 3 · Tayler Saucedo 1 · Trent Thornton 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 22 – 1616.3 0.6 +19.9
Marcus Semien 30 FA-elig 1625.9 18.0 +1.3
Bo Bichette 23 pre-arb 1594.9 0.6 +15.2
Teoscar Hernández 28 arb 1434.0 4.3 +8.8
Robbie Ray 29 FA-elig 323.9 8.0 +4.5
Steven Matz 30 arb 292.7 5.2 +3.6
George Springer 31 FA-elig 782.6 23.7 -15.1
Hyun Jin Ryu 34 FA-elig 312.4 20.0 -12.2
Alek Manoah 23 – 202.0 0.4 +6.0
Santiago Espinal 26 pre-arb 921.9 0.5 +5.6
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 27 arb 1411.7 3.9 +1.7
José Berríos↔ MIN 27 arb 121.7 2.3 +3.2
Danny Jansen 26 pre-arb 701.5 0.6 +4.2
Reese McGuire 26 pre-arb 781.4 0.5 +4.2
Jordan Romano 28 pre-arb 621.2 0.6 +3.2
Tim Mayza 29 pre-arb 610.9 0.6 +2.4
Alejandro Kirk 22 pre-arb 600.7 0.6 +1.8
Adam Cimber↔ MIA 30 arb 390.7 0.5 +1.7
Randal Grichuk 29 FA-elig 1490.6 10.3 -8.3
David Phelps 34 FA-elig 120.4 1.8 -0.5
Corey Dickerson↔ MIA 32 FA-elig 460.4 3.7 -2.5
Tayler Saucedo 28 – 290.2 0.3 +0.4
Anthony Castro 26 pre-arb 250.2 0.4 +0.4
Breyvic Valera 29 pre-arb 390.2 0.2 +0.5
Tyler Chatwood↔ SFG 31 FA-elig 300.2 2.8 -2.2
Ross Stripling 31 arb 240.2 3.0 -2.5
Joel Payamps↔ KCR 27 – 220.2 0.2 +0.4
Kirby Snead 26 – 70.1 0.1 +0.4
Tommy Milone 34 FA-elig 60.1 0.6 -0.2
Jacob Barnes↔ NYM 31 arb 100.1 0.3 +0.0
A.J. Cole 29 FA-elig 60.1 1.0 -0.8
Rafael Dolis 33 FA-elig 390.1 1.5 -1.3
Connor Overton↔ PIT 27 – 40.1 0.0 +0.2
Trevor Richards↔ MIL 28 pre-arb 320.0 0.2 -0.0
Bryan Baker 26 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Nick Allgeyer 25 – 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Nate Pearson 24 pre-arb 12-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Otto Lopez 22 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Anthony Kay 26 pre-arb 11-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Ty Tice↔ ATL 24 – 4-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Thomas Hatch 26 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Jared Hoying 32 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Jarrod Dyson↔ KCR 36 FA-elig 25-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Patrick Murphy↔ WSN 26 – 8-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Joakim Soria↔ ARI 37 FA-elig 10-0.1 0.9 -1.2
Jake Lamb↔ CHW 30 FA-elig 12-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Carl Edwards Jr.↔ ATL 29 FA-elig 6-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Joshua Palacios 25 – 13-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Tanner Roark 34 FA-elig 3-0.2 12.0 -12.6
Joe Panik↔ MIA 30 FA-elig 42-0.2 0.8 -1.4
Travis Bergen 27 pre-arb 10-0.2 0.2 -0.8
Jeremy Beasley 25 pre-arb 8-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Jonathan Davis↔ NYY 29 – 52-0.3 0.3 -1.1
Ryan Borucki 27 pre-arb 24-0.3 0.5 -1.3
Cavan Biggio 26 pre-arb 79-0.3 0.6 -1.5
Kevin Smith 24 – 18-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Julian Merryweather 29 pre-arb 13-0.3 0.6 -1.6
Trent Thornton 27 pre-arb 37-0.4 0.4 -1.6
Brad Hand↔ NYM 31 FA-elig 11-0.4 1.7 -2.9
Riley Adams↔ WSN 25 – 12-0.4 0.1 -1.5
Rowdy Tellez↔ MIL 26 – 50-0.6 0.1 -2.0
T.J. Zeuch 25 – 5-0.6 0.1 -2.1

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Marcus Semien5.9
Steven Matz2.7
George Springer2.6
Alek Manoah2.0
José Berríos1.7
Tim Mayza0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Taijuan Walker0.4
Anthony Bass0.4
Brian Moran0.1
Sean Reid-Foley0.1
Billy McKinney0.1
Jacob Waguespack0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$137.1M
2022 guaranteed
$29.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
George Springer316.166$23.7M$29.7M$24.2M$24.2M$24.2M$24.2MFREE AGENT
Hyun Jin Ryu348.000$20.0MFREE AGENT
Marcus Semien306.118$18.0MFREE AGENT
Tanner Roark348.000$12.0MFREE AGENT
Randal Grichuk296.033$10.3MFREE AGENT
Robbie Ray296.007$8.0MFREE AGENT
Corey Dickerson327.101$3.7MFREE AGENT
Tyler Chatwood319.039$2.8MFREE AGENT
David Phelps348.156$1.8MFREE AGENT
Brad Hand317.092$1.7MFREE AGENT
Joakim Soria3714.000$854kFREE AGENT
Joe Panik306.100$818kFREE AGENT
Tommy Milone3410.000$570kFREE AGENT
Jarrod Dyson369.088$368kFREE AGENT
Jake Lamb307.000$218kFREE AGENT
Carl Edwards Jr.296.000$86kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Steven Matz305.099$5.2MFREE AGENT
Teoscar Hernández283.097$4.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.273.000$3.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ross Stripling314.115$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
José Berríos274.044$2.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Cole293.124$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Barnes314.030$259kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Hoying324.070$9kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (38)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Rafael Dolis332.101$1.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.222.000$605kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cavan Biggio261.129$604kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Jansen262.050$602kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Mayza291.156$600kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bo Bichette231.063$588kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Romano281.051$584kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julian Merryweather290.114$578kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alejandro Kirk220.047$564kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Santiago Espinal260.136$506kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Cimber302.139$501kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reese McGuire261.043$463kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Borucki272.088$461kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alek Manoah230.000$396kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trent Thornton272.000$383kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Hatch261.000$380kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Castro260.033$353kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Davis291.029$289kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tayler Saucedo280.000$285kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Kay261.006$259kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Breyvic Valera290.121$236kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Pearson240.169$196kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Richards282.098$166kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Bergen271.046$156kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Payamps270.064$152kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rowdy Tellez262.012$135kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Murphy260.028$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
T.J. Zeuch250.058$96kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Beasley250.136$95kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Smith240.000$80kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kirby Snead260.000$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Riley Adams250.000$72kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joshua Palacios250.000$67kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty Tice24–$66k
Connor Overton270.000$30kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Baker260.000$25kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Otto Lopez220.000$15kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Allgeyer25–$12k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.