RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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President of baseball ops: Mark Shapiro · GM: Ross Atkins

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.76× league · TAB -6.2
-6.2TAB — talent above budget
+8.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
0.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars20th/30
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
58%dead money %21st/30
0.533win %11th/30
9.1roster fWAR21st/30
-22surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$89Mpayroll $M22nd/30

2020: made playoffs · 32–28. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFRandal Grichuk 48GTeoscar Hernández 9GJonathan Davis 5G
LFLourdes Gurriel Jr. 53GDerek Fisher 5GJonathan Davis 3G
RFTeoscar Hernández 40GCavan Biggio 14GDerek Fisher 10G
SSBo Bichette 26GJonathan Villar 21GSantiago Espinal 21G
2BCavan Biggio 37GJonathan Villar 25GJoe Panik 18G
3BTravis Shaw 37GBrandon Drury 16GJoe Panik 12G
1BVladimir Guerrero Jr. 34GRowdy Tellez 19GTravis Shaw 14G
STARTERSHyun Jin Ryu 1.9WARTaijuan Walker 0.4WARRoss Stripling 0.3WARRobbie Ray 0.1WARMatt Shoemaker -0.1WAR
CDanny Jansen 43GReese McGuire 18GAlejandro Kirk 7G
DHVladimir Guerrero Jr. 23GRowdy Tellez 11GRandal Grichuk 7G
BULLPEN★ Anthony Bass 7svRafael Dolis 7hJordan Romano 5hRyan Borucki 3hThomas Hatch 3hA.J. Cole 2hWilmer Font 2hShun Yamaguchi 1h
CDanny Jansen 43 · Reese McGuire 18 · Alejandro Kirk 7
1BVladimir Guerrero Jr. 34 · Rowdy Tellez 19 · Travis Shaw 14
2BCavan Biggio 37 · Jonathan Villar 25 · Joe Panik 18
3BTravis Shaw 37 · Brandon Drury 16 · Joe Panik 12
SSBo Bichette 26 · Jonathan Villar 21 · Santiago Espinal 21
LFLourdes Gurriel Jr. 53 · Derek Fisher 5 · Jonathan Davis 3
CFRandal Grichuk 48 · Teoscar Hernández 9 · Jonathan Davis 5
RFTeoscar Hernández 40 · Cavan Biggio 14 · Derek Fisher 10
DHVladimir Guerrero Jr. 23 · Rowdy Tellez 11 · Randal Grichuk 7
SPHyun Jin Ryu 1.9 · Taijuan Walker 0.4 · Ross Stripling 0.3 · Robbie Ray 0.1 · Matt Shoemaker -0.1
BP★ Anthony Bass 7 · Rafael Dolis 7 · Jordan Romano 5 · Ryan Borucki 3 · Thomas Hatch 3 · A.J. Cole 2 · Wilmer Font 2 · Shun Yamaguchi 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2020 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Hyun Jin Ryu 33 FA-elig 121.9 20.0 -6.1
Teoscar Hernández 27 pre-arb 501.5 0.2 +10.4
Cavan Biggio 25 pre-arb 591.4 0.2 +9.8
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 26 pre-arb 571.3 2.9 +6.3
Bo Bichette 22 pre-arb 290.9 0.2 +6.1
Randal Grichuk 28 FA-elig 550.7 13.0 -8.0
Rafael Dolis 32 FA-elig 240.6 1.0 +3.3
Julian Merryweather 28 – 80.5 0.1 +3.8
Rowdy Tellez 25 pre-arb 350.5 0.2 +3.1
Taijuan Walker↔ SEA 27 FA-elig 60.4 1.1 +2.1
Anthony Bass 32 FA-elig 260.4 1.5 +1.7
Jordan Romano 27 pre-arb 150.4 0.2 +2.7
Danny Jansen 25 pre-arb 430.4 0.2 +2.5
Thomas Hatch 25 – 170.3 0.2 +1.8
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 21 – 600.3 0.2 +1.8
Ross Stripling↔ LAD 30 arb 50.3 0.9 +1.0
A.J. Cole 28 arb 240.2 0.1 +1.7
Ryan Borucki 26 pre-arb 210.2 0.2 +1.2
Santiago Espinal 25 – 270.2 0.2 +1.2
Trent Thornton 26 pre-arb 30.2 0.2 +1.1
Jonathan Davis 28 pre-arb 130.1 0.1 +1.0
Brian Moran↔ MIA 31 – 20.1 0.0 +0.8
Alejandro Kirk 21 – 90.1 0.1 +0.8
Sean Reid-Foley 24 pre-arb 50.1 0.0 +0.6
T.J. Zeuch 24 pre-arb 30.1 0.0 +0.6
Robbie Ray↔ ARI 28 FA-elig 50.1 3.9 -3.3
Patrick Murphy 25 – 40.1 0.0 +0.6
Billy McKinney 25 – 20.1 0.0 +0.5
Joe Panik 29 arb 410.1 1.1 -0.6
Travis Bergen↔ ARI 26 – 10.0 0.0 +0.3
Jacob Waguespack 26 pre-arb 110.0 0.2 -0.1
Wilmer Font 30 pre-arb 210.0 0.2 -0.2
Travis Shaw 30 arb 50-0.1 4.0 -4.4
Anthony Alford↔ PIT 25 – 13-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Matt Shoemaker 33 FA-elig 6-0.1 4.2 -4.7
Caleb Joseph 34 arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Daniel Vogelbach↔ MIL 27 – 2-0.1 – –
Hector Perez 24 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Anthony Kay 25 pre-arb 13-0.1 0.5 -1.1
Sam Gaviglio 30 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.0 -0.8
Derek Fisher 26 pre-arb 16-0.1 0.2 -1.0
Chase Anderson 32 arb 10-0.1 3.1 -4.2
Ken Giles 29 FA-elig 4-0.2 9.6 -11.1
Nate Pearson 23 – 5-0.2 0.2 -2.0
Shun Yamaguchi 32 – 17-0.5 1.2 -4.5
Tanner Roark 33 FA-elig 11-0.5 12.0 -15.7
Brandon Drury 27 arb 21-0.5 2.0 -5.8
Jonathan Villar↔ MIA 29 FA-elig 22-0.7 3.5 -8.4
Reese McGuire 25 pre-arb 19-0.7 0.1 -5.2

Key additions (new vs 2019)

PlayerfWAR
Hyun Jin Ryu1.9
Rafael Dolis0.6
Julian Merryweather0.5
Taijuan Walker0.4
Anthony Bass0.4
Thomas Hatch0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2019)

Player2019 fWAR
Marcus Stroman3.0
Eric Sogard2.5
Freddy Galvis2.0
Aaron Sanchez0.9
Justin Smoak0.5
Daniel Hudson0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2020 payroll
$89.4M
2021 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2020, 2020–2026. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2020; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (3)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Hyun Jin Ryu337.000$20.0MFREE AGENT
Tanner Roark336.055$12.0MFREE AGENT
Julian Merryweather286.011$128kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Randal Grichuk285.033$13.0MFREE AGENT
Ken Giles295.113$9.6MFREE AGENT
Matt Shoemaker335.166$4.2MFREE AGENT
Travis Shaw304.053$4.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Robbie Ray285.007$3.9MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Villar295.113$3.5MFREE AGENT
Chase Anderson325.146$3.1MFREE AGENT
Brandon Drury273.165$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Bass325.012$1.5MFREE AGENT
Taijuan Walker275.142$1.1MFREE AGENT
Joe Panik295.100$1.1MFREE AGENT
Ross Stripling303.115$875kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Joseph345.020$22kFREE AGENT
Daniel Vogelbach274.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (32)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.262.000$2.9MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shun Yamaguchi32–$1.2M
Rafael Dolis321.101$1.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Kay250.023$485kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Teoscar Hernández272.097$223kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trent Thornton261.000$216kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Jansen251.050$215kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Fisher261.061$215kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rowdy Tellez251.012$215kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.211.000$215kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cavan Biggio250.129$214kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bo Bichette220.063$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Romano270.051$210kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Hatch250.000$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilmer Font302.085$206kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Borucki261.088$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Pearson230.000$194kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Waguespack260.116$156kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Santiago Espinal250.000$153kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reese McGuire250.090$139kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Cole282.124$100kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Davis280.112$66kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Alford250.142$63kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alejandro Kirk210.000$53kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Moran311.027$49kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Gaviglio302.067$47kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Reid-Foley240.086$38kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
T.J. Zeuch240.027$34kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Murphy252.023$31kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy McKinney251.065$22kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Bergen260.146$9kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hector Perez241.006$3kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2020; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.