TOR⇄NYM

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $9M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2021 odds 64% → 64% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jacob BarnesP·31y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.68 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Sandy Alderson net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2021 odds 26% → 26% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Troy Miller

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.