ARI⇄TOR

ARIARI Mike Hazen net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $8M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2021 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yaifer Perdomo

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

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J.J. D'Orazio

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net −$1.6M net -0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $5M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2021 odds 65% → 64% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joakim SoriaP·37y·R/R

+$1.1M+$1.1M± $5M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.78/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.