TOR⇄MIL

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2021 odds 64% → 64% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Paxton SchultzP·23y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#433 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL David Stearns net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $16M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2021 odds 50% → 50% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Derek FisherOF·27y·L/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

-0.02/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.