TOR⇄OAK

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net +$11.2M net +0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2019 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jesus Lopez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$11.2M net -0.4

received −$6.4M−$6.4M ± $7M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2019 odds 67% → 64% (-2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kendrys Morales1B/DH·36y·B/R

−$6.0M−$6.0M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.46/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.