TOR⇄MIA

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net +$0.8M net +0.3

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $15M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2017 odds 2% → 2% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tom KoehlerP·31y·R/R

+$7.4M+$7.4M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.68/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Michael Hill net −$0.8M net -0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2017 odds 8% → 8% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Osman Gutierrez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.