RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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President of baseball ops: Mark Shapiro · GM: Ross Atkins

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.25× league · TAB +3.4
+3.4TAB — talent above budget10th/30
+4.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)9th/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-4.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag13th/30
24%dead money %7th/30
0.549win %7th/30
40.4roster fWAR9th/30
-26surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/30
$157Mpayroll $M8th/30

2016: made playoffs · 89–73. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFKevin Pillar 146GB.J. Upton 27GEzequiel Carrera 5G
LFB.J. Upton 121GMichael Saunders 106GEzequiel Carrera 45G
RFJosé Bautista 91GEzequiel Carrera 65GMichael Saunders 22G
SSTroy Tulowitzki 128GRyan Goins 28GDarwin Barney 25G
2BDevon Travis 99GDarwin Barney 40GRyan Goins 37G
3BJosh Donaldson 136GDarwin Barney 32GRyan Goins 6G
1BJustin Smoak 111GEdwin Encarnación 75GChris Colabello 8G
STARTERSAaron Sanchez 3.4WARMarcus Stroman 3.2WARJ.A. Happ 2.9WARMarco Estrada 2.7WARR.A. Dickey 0.8WAR
CRussell Martin 127GDioner Navarro 90GJosh Thole 50G
DHEdwin Encarnación 86GJosé Bautista 26GJosh Donaldson 19G
BULLPEN★ Roberto Osuna 36svJason Grilli 23hJoaquín Benoit 18hJoe Biagini 9hBrett Cecil 9hGavin Floyd 6hAaron Loup 2hRyan Tepera 0h
CRussell Martin 127 · Dioner Navarro 90 · Josh Thole 50
1BJustin Smoak 111 · Edwin Encarnación 75 · Chris Colabello 8
2BDevon Travis 99 · Darwin Barney 40 · Ryan Goins 37
3BJosh Donaldson 136 · Darwin Barney 32 · Ryan Goins 6
SSTroy Tulowitzki 128 · Ryan Goins 28 · Darwin Barney 25
LFB.J. Upton 121 · Michael Saunders 106 · Ezequiel Carrera 45
CFKevin Pillar 146 · B.J. Upton 27 · Ezequiel Carrera 5
RFJosé Bautista 91 · Ezequiel Carrera 65 · Michael Saunders 22
DHEdwin Encarnación 86 · José Bautista 26 · Josh Donaldson 19
SPAaron Sanchez 3.4 · Marcus Stroman 3.2 · J.A. Happ 2.9 · Marco Estrada 2.7 · R.A. Dickey 0.8
BP★ Roberto Osuna 36 · Jason Grilli 23 · Joaquín Benoit 18 · Joe Biagini 9 · Brett Cecil 9 · Gavin Floyd 6 · Aaron Loup 2 · Ryan Tepera 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Josh Donaldson 30 FA-elig 1556.8 11.7 +10.4
Russell Martin 33 FA-elig 1373.7 15.0 -3.1
Edwin Encarnación 33 FA-elig 1603.6 10.0 +1.6
Aaron Sanchez 23 pre-arb 303.4 0.5 +10.6
Marcus Stroman 25 pre-arb 323.2 0.5 +9.9
J.A. Happ 33 FA-elig 322.9 10.0 -0.6
Marco Estrada 32 FA-elig 292.7 11.5 -2.9
Devon Travis 25 pre-arb 1012.7 0.5 +8.1
Troy Tulowitzki 31 FA-elig 1312.3 20.0 -12.4
Michael Saunders 29 FA-elig 1402.3 2.9 +4.5
José Bautista 35 FA-elig 1162.0 14.0 -7.5
Kevin Pillar 27 arb 1461.8 0.5 +5.3
Roberto Osuna 21 pre-arb 721.7 0.5 +5.0
Darwin Barney 30 FA-elig 1041.3 1.1 +3.0
Joe Biagini 26 pre-arb 601.1 0.5 +3.0
R.A. Dickey 41 FA-elig 310.8 12.0 -9.4
Francisco Liriano↔ PIT 32 FA-elig 100.6 4.1 -2.0
Joaquín Benoit↔ SEA 38 FA-elig 250.6 3.9 -1.9
Brett Cecil 29 FA-elig 540.4 3.8 -2.5
Danny Barnes 26 pre-arb 120.4 0.1 +1.1
Ezequiel Carrera 29 arb 1100.3 0.5 +0.4
Gavin Floyd 33 FA-elig 280.2 1.0 -0.4
Ryan Tepera 28 pre-arb 200.1 0.5 -0.1
Jimmy Paredes↔ PHI 27 – 70.0 0.0 +0.1
Jason Grilli↔ ATL 39 FA-elig 460.0 2.4 -2.3
Aaron Loup 28 arb 210.0 1.1 -1.0
Scott Feldman↔ HOU 33 FA-elig 14-0.0 2.8 -2.8
Pat Venditte↔ SEA 31 – 8-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Matt Dermody 25 – 5-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Scott Diamond 29 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Andy Burns 25 – 10-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Dalton Pompey 23 pre-arb 8-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Dustin Antolin 26 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Franklin Morales 30 FA-elig 5-0.1 2.0 -2.3
Bo Schultz 30 pre-arb 16-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Drew Hutchison↔ PIT 25 arb 3-0.1 0.7 -1.1
Jesse Chavez↔ LAD 32 FA-elig 39-0.2 2.5 -3.1
Matt Dominguez 26 pre-arb 5-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Arnold Leon 27 pre-arb 2-0.2 0.5 -1.2
Junior Lake 26 arb 22-0.2 0.5 -1.2
Drew Storen↔ SEA 28 FA-elig 38-0.2 5.6 -6.4
Chad Girodo 25 pre-arb 14-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Dioner Navarro↔ CHW 32 FA-elig 16-0.2 0.6 -1.4
B.J. Upton↔ SDP 31 FA-elig 57-0.3 5.9 -6.8
Josh Thole 29 FA-elig 50-0.3 0.8 -1.7
Darrell Ceciliani 26 pre-arb 13-0.4 0.1 -1.4
Justin Smoak 29 FA-elig 126-0.4 3.9 -5.3
Chris Colabello 32 arb 10-0.4 0.5 -2.0
Ryan Goins 28 arb 77-0.5 0.5 -2.2

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
J.A. Happ2.9
Joe Biagini1.1
Francisco Liriano0.6
Joaquín Benoit0.6
Danny Barnes0.4
Gavin Floyd0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
David Price2.6
Mark Buehrle2.0
Liam Hendriks1.5
Danny Valencia1.3
José Reyes1.0
Ben Revere0.7

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$156.8M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Troy Tulowitzki319.033$20.0MFREE AGENT
Russell Martin339.150$15.0MFREE AGENT
José Bautista3510.165$14.0MFREE AGENT
R.A. Dickey4111.007$12.0MFREE AGENT
Marco Estrada326.035$11.5MFREE AGENT
J.A. Happ337.047$10.0MFREE AGENT
Edwin Encarnación3310.085$10.0MFREE AGENT
B.J. Upton319.126$5.9MFREE AGENT
Francisco Liriano329.104$4.1MFREE AGENT
Joaquín Benoit3815.040$3.9MFREE AGENT
Justin Smoak296.000$3.9MFREE AGENT
Scott Feldman339.091$2.8MFREE AGENT
Jason Grilli399.016$2.4MFREE AGENT
Franklin Morales309.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Gavin Floyd3310.045$1.0MFREE AGENT
Josh Thole297.000$800kFREE AGENT
Dioner Navarro329.091$634kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Josh Donaldson303.158$11.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Storen285.140$5.6MFREE AGENT
Brett Cecil295.152$3.8MFREE AGENT
Michael Saunders295.138$2.9MFREE AGENT
Jesse Chavez325.108$2.5MFREE AGENT
Darwin Barney304.085$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Loup283.083$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Hutchison253.128$733kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Ezequiel Carrera292.039$522kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Colabello322.089$521kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Pillar271.113$521kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Lake261.142$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Goins281.166$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Sanchez231.069$518kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roberto Osuna211.000$516kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcus Stroman251.147$516kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bo Schultz300.146$513kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Tepera280.109$512kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devon Travis251.000$511kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Arnold Leon270.073$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Biagini260.000$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darrell Ceciliani260.127$139kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Girodo250.043$114kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Barnes261.028$108kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Burns250.000$103kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Dermody250.000$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dalton Pompey230.088$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Venditte310.121$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Paredes272.059$30kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Dominguez262.062$28kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Antolin26–$6k
Scott Diamond291.161$6kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.