RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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GM: Alex Anthopoulos

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.83× league · TAB -11.0
-11.0TAB — talent above budget26th/30
-6.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-5.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
39%dead money %21st/30
0.451win %22nd/30
20.9roster fWAR27th/30
-28surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$83Mpayroll $M19th/30

Roster

CFColby Rasmus 145GAnthony Gose 22GRajai Davis 6G
LFRajai Davis 114GAnthony Gose 15GYan Gomes 4G
RFJosé Bautista 90GMoisés Sierra 39GAnthony Gose 24G
SSYunel Escobar 143GAdeiny Hechavarría 17GOmar Vizquel 10G
2BKelly Johnson 136GOmar Vizquel 24GMike McCoy 8G
3BBrett Lawrie 123GOmar Vizquel 18GAdeiny Hechavarría 18G
1BEdwin Encarnación 68GAdam Lind 61GDavid Cooper 29G
STARTERSBrandon Morrow 2.4WARJ.A. Happ 1.1WARCarlos Villanueva 0.6WARDrew Hutchison 0.5WARRicky Romero 0.4WAR
CJ.P. Arencibia 94GJeff Mathis 66GYan Gomes 9G
DHEdwin Encarnación 82GAdam Lind 31GDavid Cooper 9G
BULLPEN★ Casey Janssen 22svDarren Oliver 16hBrandon Lyon 12hSteve Delabar 12hJason Frasor 12hAaron Loup 6hLuis Pérez 4hDavid Carpenter 2h
CJ.P. Arencibia 94 · Jeff Mathis 66 · Yan Gomes 9
1BEdwin Encarnación 68 · Adam Lind 61 · David Cooper 29
2BKelly Johnson 136 · Omar Vizquel 24 · Mike McCoy 8
3BBrett Lawrie 123 · Omar Vizquel 18 · Adeiny Hechavarría 18
SSYunel Escobar 143 · Adeiny Hechavarría 17 · Omar Vizquel 10
LFRajai Davis 114 · Anthony Gose 15 · Yan Gomes 4
CFColby Rasmus 145 · Anthony Gose 22 · Rajai Davis 6
RFJosé Bautista 90 · Moisés Sierra 39 · Anthony Gose 24
DHEdwin Encarnación 82 · Adam Lind 31 · David Cooper 9
SPBrandon Morrow 2.4 · J.A. Happ 1.1 · Carlos Villanueva 0.6 · Drew Hutchison 0.5 · Ricky Romero 0.4
BP★ Casey Janssen 22 · Darren Oliver 16 · Brandon Lyon 12 · Steve Delabar 12 · Jason Frasor 12 · Aaron Loup 6 · Luis Pérez 4 · David Carpenter 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Edwin Encarnación 29 FA-elig 1514.6 3.5 +8.3
José Bautista 31 FA-elig 923.1 14.0 -5.9
Brandon Morrow 27 arb 212.4 4.0 +2.3
Brett Lawrie 22 pre-arb 1251.9 0.5 +4.5
Jeff Mathis 29 FA-elig 711.7 1.5 +2.9
Yunel Escobar 29 arb 1451.3 5.0 -1.6
Colby Rasmus 25 arb 1511.2 2.7 +0.3
J.A. Happ↔ HOU 29 arb 101.1 0.7 +2.1
Casey Janssen 30 FA-elig 621.1 2.0 +0.8
Darren Oliver 41 FA-elig 621.1 4.0 -1.2
Aaron Loup 24 – 330.8 0.2 +2.0
Rajai Davis 31 FA-elig 1420.7 2.8 -0.9
Kelly Johnson 30 FA-elig 1420.7 6.4 -4.5
Carlos Villanueva 28 FA-elig 380.6 2.3 -0.7
J.P. Arencibia 26 pre-arb 1020.6 0.5 +1.1
Anthony Gose 21 – 560.6 – –
Steve Delabar↔ SEA 28 pre-arb 270.5 0.2 +1.1
Drew Hutchison 21 – 110.5 0.5 +0.7
Luis Perez 27 pre-arb 350.4 0.5 +0.6
Brandon Lyon↔ HOU 32 FA-elig 300.4 2.5 -1.4
Ricky Romero 27 arb 320.4 5.0 -4.0
Henderson Alvarez 22 pre-arb 310.2 0.5 +0.2
Jason Frasor 34 FA-elig 500.2 3.8 -3.2
Travis Snider↔ PIT 24 – 100.1 0.1 +0.2
Brett Cecil 25 pre-arb 210.1 0.5 -0.3
David Cooper 25 pre-arb 450.0 0.5 -0.4
Chad Beck 27 pre-arb 150.0 0.5 -0.4
Yorvit Torrealba↔ MIL 33 FA-elig 100.0 0.5 -0.5
Ryota Igarashi↔ NYY 33 – 2-0.0 – –
Sam Dyson 24 – 2-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Shawn Hill 31 – 1-0.0 – –
Scott Richmond 32 – 3-0.0 – –
Ben Francisco↔ HOU 30 arb 27-0.1 0.5 -0.6
David Carpenter↔ HOU 26 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Bobby Korecky 32 – 1-0.1 – –
Robert Coello 27 – 6-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Adeiny Hechavarría 23 pre-arb 41-0.1 1.8 -2.0
Adam Lind 28 FA-elig 93-0.1 5.0 -5.3
Yan Gomes 24 – 43-0.1 0.2 -0.5
David Pauley↔ ANA 29 – 5-0.1 – –
Chad Jenkins 24 – 13-0.1 – –
Brad Lincoln↔ PIT 27 – 24-0.2 – –
Kyle Drabek 24 pre-arb 13-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Sergio Santos 28 pre-arb 6-0.2 1.0 -1.5
Mike McCoy 31 pre-arb 32-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Drew Carpenter 27 – 6-0.2 – –
Jesse Chavez↔ OAK 28 – 9-0.2 0.3 -0.9
Evan Crawford 25 pre-arb 10-0.3 0.5 -1.2
Moisés Sierra 23 pre-arb 49-0.3 0.5 -1.2
Aaron Laffey 27 arb 22-0.3 0.8 -1.6
Francisco Cordero↔ HOU 37 FA-elig 41-0.5 3.9 -5.1
Joel Carreno 25 pre-arb 11-0.6 0.5 -1.9
Eric Thames↔ SEA 25 pre-arb 46-0.7 0.3 -2.1
Omar Vizquel 45 FA-elig 60-0.9 0.8 -3.0

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Jeff Mathis1.7
J.A. Happ1.1
Darren Oliver1.1
Aaron Loup0.8
Anthony Gose0.6
Steve Delabar0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
José Molina2.4
Jo-Jo Reyes1.0
John McDonald0.5
Marc Rzepczynski0.4
Frank Francisco0.4
Shawn Camp0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$82.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
José Bautista316.165$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$18.0MFREE AGENT
Kelly Johnson306.127$6.4MFREE AGENT
Adam Lind289.058$5.0M$5.0M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Darren Oliver4116.127$4.0M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Francisco Cordero3712.046$3.9MFREE AGENT
Jason Frasor347.134$3.8MFREE AGENT
Edwin Encarnación296.085$3.5M$8.0M$9.0M$10.0M$10.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon Lyon329.142$2.5MFREE AGENT
Omar Vizquel4522.130$750kFREE AGENT
Yorvit Torrealba3310.030$508kFREE AGENT
Shawn Hill318.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Yunel Escobar294.121$5.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ricky Romero273.000$5.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Morrow274.091$4.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Rajai Davis314.167$2.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Colby Rasmus253.000$2.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Villanueva285.030$2.3MFREE AGENT
Casey Janssen305.063$2.0MFREE AGENT
Jeff Mathis295.012$1.5MFREE AGENT
Aaron Laffey274.101$800kARB 3FREE AGENT
J.A. Happ293.047$734kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Francisco304.049$506kARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Richmond324.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (31)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Adeiny Hechavarría230.000$1.8MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sergio Santos282.000$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. Arencibia261.059$490kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Drabek242.080$486kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Perez270.119$486kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henderson Alvarez221.000$483kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Lawrie220.055$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Carreno250.041$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Beck270.022$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Moisés Sierra231.105$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Cooper250.136$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike McCoy312.101$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Cecil252.071$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Coello27–$480k
Evan Crawford250.041$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Dyson240.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Hutchison210.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Chavez282.065$332kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Thames250.115$260kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Loup240.000$218kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yan Gomes240.000$218kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Delabar280.023$213kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Snider242.015$80kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Carpenter260.092$43kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Korecky32–—
Brad Lincoln271.075—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Pauley292.011—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Carpenter271.028—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Gose210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Jenkins240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryota Igarashi332.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.