RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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GM: Alex Anthopoulos

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.65× league · TAB -1.9
-1.9TAB — talent above budget18th/30
+4.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-5.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
62%dead money %28th/30
0.500win %14th/30
27.0roster fWAR21st/30
+4surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$62Mpayroll $M24th/30

Roster

CFColby Rasmus 127GRajai Davis 79GDewayne Wise 37G
LFEric Thames 52GTravis Snider 44GDewayne Wise 13G
RFJosé Bautista 116GEric Thames 27GMark Teahen 9G
SSYunel Escobar 132GMike McCoy 26GChris Woodward 1G
2BKelly Johnson 141GJohn McDonald 21GMike McCoy 10G
3BBrett Lawrie 43GJayson Nix 41GEdwin Encarnación 36G
1BAdam Lind 109GEdwin Encarnación 25GMark Teahen 18G
STARTERSBrandon Morrow 2.8WARRicky Romero 2.5WARCarlos Villanueva 1.3WARHenderson Alvarez 0.7WARJesse Litsch 0.5WAR
CJ.P. Arencibia 122GJosé Molina 48G
DHEdwin Encarnación 70GJuan Rivera 19GAdam Lind 16G
BULLPEN★ Frank Francisco 17svCasey Janssen 7hShawn Camp 5hJon Rauch 4hLuis Pérez 4hBrian Tallet 2hJoel Carreño 0hRommie Lewis 0h
CJ.P. Arencibia 122 · José Molina 48
1BAdam Lind 109 · Edwin Encarnación 25 · Mark Teahen 18
2BKelly Johnson 141 · John McDonald 21 · Mike McCoy 10
3BBrett Lawrie 43 · Jayson Nix 41 · Edwin Encarnación 36
SSYunel Escobar 132 · Mike McCoy 26 · Chris Woodward 1
LFEric Thames 52 · Travis Snider 44 · Dewayne Wise 13
CFColby Rasmus 127 · Rajai Davis 79 · Dewayne Wise 37
RFJosé Bautista 116 · Eric Thames 27 · Mark Teahen 9
DHEdwin Encarnación 70 · Juan Rivera 19 · Adam Lind 16
SPBrandon Morrow 2.8 · Ricky Romero 2.5 · Carlos Villanueva 1.3 · Henderson Alvarez 0.7 · Jesse Litsch 0.5
BP★ Frank Francisco 17 · Casey Janssen 7 · Shawn Camp 5 · Jon Rauch 4 · Luis Pérez 4 · Brian Tallet 2 · Joel Carreño 0 · Rommie Lewis 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
José Bautista 30 FA-elig 1498.1 8.0 +11.9
Yunel Escobar 28 arb 1333.6 2.9 +5.8
Brandon Morrow 26 arb 302.8 2.3 +4.6
Brett Lawrie 21 – 432.6 0.4 +5.9
Ricky Romero 26 pre-arb 322.5 1.0 +5.2
José Molina 36 FA-elig 552.4 1.2 +4.7
Carlos Villanueva 27 arb 331.3 1.4 +1.7
Casey Janssen 29 arb 551.2 1.1 +1.8
Jo-Jo Reyes↔ BAL 26 arb 201.0 0.3 +2.2
Kelly Johnson↔ ARI 29 FA-elig 330.8 1.3 +0.5
Edwin Encarnación 28 FA-elig 1340.7 2.5 -0.8
Henderson Alvarez 21 – 100.7 – –
Eric Thames 24 – 950.7 0.3 +1.3
Jesse Litsch 26 arb 280.5 0.8 +0.4
John McDonald↔ ARI 36 FA-elig 650.5 1.2 -0.0
Brett Cecil 24 pre-arb 200.5 0.4 +0.7
Marc Rzepczynski↔ STL 25 pre-arb 430.4 0.3 +0.7
Frank Francisco 31 FA-elig 540.4 4.0 -3.1
Shawn Camp 35 FA-elig 670.3 2.2 -1.6
Jason Frasor↔ CHW 33 FA-elig 440.3 2.4 -1.7
Mike McCoy 30 pre-arb 800.2 0.4 +0.2
Adam Lind 27 arb 1250.2 5.2 -4.6
Jayson Nix 28 arb 460.2 0.4 -0.0
Joel Carreno 24 – 110.2 0.4 -0.0
Chad Beck 26 pre-arb 30.1 0.4 -0.3
Travis Snider 23 arb 490.1 0.4 -0.3
Zach Stewart↔ CHW 24 – 30.0 0.1 +0.0
P.J. Walters↔ STL 26 – 10.0 – –
Scott Richmond 31 – 10.0 – –
Luis Perez 26 – 37-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Danny Farquhar 24 – 3-0.0 0.4 -0.4
David Purcey↔ DET 29 arb 5-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Mark Teahen↔ CHW 29 FA-elig 27-0.0 1.6 -1.7
Corey Patterson↔ STL 31 FA-elig 89-0.0 0.6 -0.7
Rommie Lewis 28 – 6-0.0 – –
Trever Miller↔ BOS 38 FA-elig 6-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Octavio Dotel↔ STL 37 FA-elig 36-0.1 1.7 -1.9
Dustin McGowan 29 FA-elig 5-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Wilfredo Ledezma 30 – 5-0.1 0.7 -0.9
Adam Loewen 27 – 14-0.1 – –
Brian Tallet↔ STL 33 FA-elig 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Brad Mills 26 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Dewayne Wise↔ MIA 33 – 20-0.1 – –
Darin Mastroianni 25 – 1-0.1 – –
David Cooper 24 pre-arb 27-0.1 0.4 -0.8
Chris Woodward 35 – 12-0.2 – –
Kyle Drabek 23 pre-arb 18-0.3 0.4 -1.1
Juan Rivera↔ LAD 32 FA-elig 70-0.4 2.8 -3.8
J.P. Arencibia 25 pre-arb 129-0.5 0.4 -1.6
Rajai Davis 30 arb 95-0.5 2.5 -3.7
Colby Rasmus↔ STL 24 pre-arb 35-0.5 0.1 -1.5
Jon Rauch 32 FA-elig 53-0.6 3.5 -4.9
Aaron Hill↔ ARI 29 FA-elig 104-0.9 3.8 -6.0

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Brett Lawrie2.6
Carlos Villanueva1.3
Jo-Jo Reyes1.0
Kelly Johnson0.8
Henderson Alvarez0.7
Eric Thames0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Shaun Marcum3.6
Álex González2.5
John Buck1.7
Lyle Overbay1.2
Scott Downs1.1
Shawn Hill0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$62.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Adam Lind279.058$5.2M$5.0M$5.0M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Frank Francisco316.053$4.0MFREE AGENT
Jon Rauch326.126$3.5MFREE AGENT
Juan Rivera328.047$2.8MFREE AGENT
Jason Frasor3310.134$2.4M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Octavio Dotel3711.113$1.7MFREE AGENT
José Molina369.026$1.2MFREE AGENT
John McDonald369.118$1.2MFREE AGENT
Wilfredo Ledezma308.000$700kFREE AGENT
Corey Patterson318.083$602kFREE AGENT
Trever Miller3810.095$250kFREE AGENT
Chris Woodward3512.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
José Bautista305.165$8.0MFREE AGENT
Aaron Hill295.136$3.8MFREE AGENT
Yunel Escobar283.121$2.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Encarnación285.085$2.5MFREE AGENT
Rajai Davis303.167$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Morrow263.091$2.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Camp355.170$2.2MFREE AGENT
Mark Teahen295.155$1.6MFREE AGENT
Carlos Villanueva274.030$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelly Johnson295.127$1.3MFREE AGENT
Casey Janssen294.063$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Litsch264.098$830kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin McGowan294.113$450kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jo-Jo Reyes263.007$303kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Purcey293.000$66kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Tallet335.146$39kFREE AGENT
Dewayne Wise334.094—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Loewen275.000—FREE AGENT
Scott Richmond313.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Ricky Romero262.000$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Cecil241.128$443kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jayson Nix282.046$438kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Snider231.126$436kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike McCoy302.101$422kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. Arencibia250.059$417kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Drabek232.080$416kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Farquhar240.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Mills260.138$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Beck260.022$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Lawrie210.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Cooper240.136$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Perez260.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Carreno240.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Thames240.000$305kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marc Rzepczynski251.036$260kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colby Rasmus242.000$120kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Stewart240.000$57kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rommie Lewis28–—
P.J. Walters260.114—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henderson Alvarez210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darin Mastroianni250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.