RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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GM: Alex Anthopoulos

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.67× league · TAB +10.0
+10.0TAB — talent above budget6th/30
+8.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)8th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/30
-3.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/30
14%dead money %1st/30
0.525win %13th/30
39.3roster fWAR12th/30
+30surplus $M (value vs cost)5th/30
$61Mpayroll $M24th/30

Roster

CFVernon Wells 151GDewayne Wise 18GFred Lewis 7G
LFFred Lewis 84GTravis Snider 53GAdam Lind 16G
RFJosé Bautista 113GTravis Snider 29GDewayne Wise 17G
SSYunel Escobar 134GJohn McDonald 19GMike McCoy 7G
2BAaron Hill 137GJohn McDonald 23GMike McCoy 14G
3BEdwin Encarnación 95GJosé Bautista 48GJohn McDonald 19G
1BLyle Overbay 153GAdam Lind 11GJosé Bautista 4G
STARTERSShaun Marcum 3.6WARRicky Romero 3.6WARBrandon Morrow 3.0WARBrett Cecil 2.4WARMarc Rzepczynski 0.3WAR
CJohn Buck 112GJosé Molina 56GJ.P. Arencibia 8G
DHAdam Lind 122GFred Lewis 8GRandy Ruiz 8G
BULLPEN★ Kevin Gregg 37svScott Downs 26hJason Frasor 14hShawn Camp 13hDavid Purcey 3hCasey Janssen 2hJesse Carlson 2hJosh Roenicke 2h
CJohn Buck 112 · José Molina 56 · J.P. Arencibia 8
1BLyle Overbay 153 · Adam Lind 11 · José Bautista 4
2BAaron Hill 137 · John McDonald 23 · Mike McCoy 14
3BEdwin Encarnación 95 · José Bautista 48 · John McDonald 19
SSYunel Escobar 134 · John McDonald 19 · Mike McCoy 7
LFFred Lewis 84 · Travis Snider 53 · Adam Lind 16
CFVernon Wells 151 · Dewayne Wise 18 · Fred Lewis 7
RFJosé Bautista 113 · Travis Snider 29 · Dewayne Wise 17
DHAdam Lind 122 · Fred Lewis 8 · Randy Ruiz 8
SPShaun Marcum 3.6 · Ricky Romero 3.6 · Brandon Morrow 3.0 · Brett Cecil 2.4 · Marc Rzepczynski 0.3
BP★ Kevin Gregg 37 · Scott Downs 26 · Jason Frasor 14 · Shawn Camp 13 · David Purcey 3 · Casey Janssen 2 · Jesse Carlson 2 · Josh Roenicke 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2010 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
José Bautista 29 FA-elig 1616.5 2.4 +12.9
Vernon Wells 31 FA-elig 1573.7 15.7 -7.1
Ricky Romero 25 pre-arb 323.6 0.4 +8.1
Shaun Marcum 28 arb 313.6 0.8 +7.5
José Molina 35 FA-elig 573.1 0.8 +6.5
Brandon Morrow 25 arb 263.0 0.4 +6.6
Álex González↔ ATL 33 FA-elig 852.5 1.5 +4.3
Brett Cecil 23 – 282.4 0.4 +5.2
Edwin Encarnación 27 arb 961.7 5.2 -1.1
John Buck 29 FA-elig 1181.7 2.0 +1.9
Aaron Hill 28 arb 1381.2 4.0 -1.1
Travis Snider 22 pre-arb 821.2 0.4 +2.5
Lyle Overbay 33 FA-elig 1541.2 8.0 -5.2
Scott Downs 34 FA-elig 671.1 4.0 -1.5
Yunel Escobar↔ ATL 27 arb 600.9 0.2 +1.9
Jason Frasor 32 FA-elig 690.8 2.6 -0.7
Kevin Gregg 32 FA-elig 630.7 2.0 -0.3
John McDonald 35 FA-elig 630.6 1.5 -0.2
Shawn Hill 29 – 40.5 – –
Fred Lewis 29 – 1100.4 0.5 +0.5
Mike McCoy 29 pre-arb 460.4 0.4 +0.5
Dewayne Wise 32 – 520.4 – –
Marc Rzepczynski 24 pre-arb 140.3 0.4 +0.4
David Purcey 28 – 330.3 – –
Shawn Camp 34 FA-elig 700.2 1.1 -0.6
Kyle Drabek 22 – 30.2 – –
Casey Janssen 28 arb 560.2 0.7 -0.2
Brad Mills 25 – 70.1 – –
Josh Roenicke 27 – 160.1 – –
Jeremy Accardo 28 arb 50.1 1.1 -1.0
Jesse Litsch 25 arb 90.0 0.4 -0.4
Taylor Buchholz↔ COL 28 arb 20.0 0.2 -0.2
Jeremy Reed 29 – 140.0 – –
Dana Eveland↔ PIT 26 arb 9-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Jarrett Hoffpauir 27 – 13-0.0 – –
Merkin Valdez 28 FA-elig 2-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Robert Ray 26 – 3-0.0 – –
J.P. Arencibia 24 – 11-0.2 – –
Rommie Lewis 27 – 14-0.2 – –
Nick Green↔ LAD 31 – 9-0.2 – –
Jesse Carlson 29 – 20-0.3 – –
Randy Ruiz 32 pre-arb 13-0.3 0.4 -1.2
Adam Lind 26 arb 150-0.6 0.6 -2.1
Brian Tallet 32 FA-elig 34-1.3 2.0 -5.2

Key additions (new vs 2009)

PlayerfWAR
Shaun Marcum3.6
José Molina3.1
Brandon Morrow3.0
Álex González2.5
John Buck1.7
Yunel Escobar0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2009)

Player2009 fWAR
Roy Halladay6.8
Marco Scutaro4.2
Scott Rolen3.1
Rod Barajas1.1
Alex Rios1.0
Brandon League0.7

Current & Historical Payroll

2010 payroll
$60.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2010, 2010–2016. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Vernon Wells3111.000$15.7MFREE AGENT
Lyle Overbay339.000$8.0MFREE AGENT
Scott Downs3410.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Frasor326.000$2.6M$2.4M$3.8MFREE AGENT
José Bautista296.000$2.4M$8.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M
Brian Tallet328.000$2.0M$711kFREE AGENT
John Buck296.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Kevin Gregg327.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
John McDonald3511.000$1.5M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Álex González3312.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Shawn Camp346.000$1.1M$2.2MFREE AGENT
José Molina3511.000$800k$1.2MFREE AGENT
Merkin Valdez286.000$410kFREE AGENT
Dewayne Wise3210.000—FREE AGENT
Nick Green316.000—FREE AGENT
Shawn Hill296.000—FREE AGENT
Jeremy Reed296.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Edwin Encarnación275.000$5.2MFREE AGENT
Aaron Hill285.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Jeremy Accardo285.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Shaun Marcum285.000$850kFREE AGENT
Casey Janssen284.000$700kARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Lind264.000$550kARB 3FREE AGENT
Fred Lewis294.000$455kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Litsch253.000$415kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Morrow253.000$410kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dana Eveland265.000$315kFREE AGENT
Taylor Buchholz284.000$234kARB 3FREE AGENT
Yunel Escobar273.000$193kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Ricky Romero251.000$408kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Snider222.000$406kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Ruiz322.000$404kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marc Rzepczynski241.000$404kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike McCoy291.000$401kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Cecil230.128$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Carlson292.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. Arencibia240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rommie Lewis27–—
David Purcey282.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarrett Hoffpauir271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Ray261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Drabek221.080—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Roenicke272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Mills250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2010; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.