TOR⇄ANA

TORTOR Alex Anthopoulos net +$6.4M net +1.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $8M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2012 odds 1% → 1% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff MathisC·29y·R/R

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net −$6.4M net -1.4

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $19M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.1 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2012 odds 71% → 64% (-7.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brad MillsP·27y·R/L

−$3.9M−$3.9M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

#145 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.04/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.