TOR⇄CHW

TORTOR Alex Anthopoulos net −$11.2M net +0.1

received +$28.8M+$28.8M ± $30M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 3.1 ± 4 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2012 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sergio SantosP·28y·R/R

+$28.7M+$28.7M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 3.1± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.32/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.82/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$11.2M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2012 odds 26% → 26% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nestor Molina

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.