RRosternomics
𝕏

Blue Jays TOR

‹ ›

GM: JP Ricciardi

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.88× league · TAB +2.1
+2.1TAB — talent above budget15th/30
-5.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)22nd/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-4.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/30
35%dead money %14th/30
0.463win %20th/30
34.7roster fWAR13th/30
-1surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$80Mpayroll $M16th/30

Roster

CFVernon Wells 155GJosé Bautista 6GJoe Inglett 1G
LFTravis Snider 56GAdam Lind 55GJosé Bautista 42G
RFJosé Bautista 36GTravis Snider 21GJoe Inglett 11G
SSMarco Scutaro 143GJohn McDonald 31G
2BAaron Hill 156GJohn McDonald 8GJoe Inglett 3G
3BEdwin Encarnación 85GJosé Bautista 26GJohn McDonald 10G
1BLyle Overbay 130GKevin Millar 46GRandy Ruiz 3G
STARTERSRoy Halladay 6.8WARRicky Romero 2.3WARBrian Tallet 1.4WARMarc Rzepczynski 0.9WARScott Richmond 0.5WAR
CRod Barajas 120GRaúl Chávez 51GMichael Barrett 7G
DHAdam Lind 95GRandy Ruiz 30GKevin Millar 22G
BULLPEN★ Jason Frasor 11svJesse Carlson 12hScott Downs 10hBrandon League 9hShawn Camp 6hJeremy Accardo 4hB.J. Ryan 2hJosh Roenicke 1h
CRod Barajas 120 · Raúl Chávez 51 · Michael Barrett 7
1BLyle Overbay 130 · Kevin Millar 46 · Randy Ruiz 3
2BAaron Hill 156 · John McDonald 8 · Joe Inglett 3
3BEdwin Encarnación 85 · José Bautista 26 · John McDonald 10
SSMarco Scutaro 143 · John McDonald 31
LFTravis Snider 56 · Adam Lind 55 · José Bautista 42
CFVernon Wells 155 · José Bautista 6 · Joe Inglett 1
RFJosé Bautista 36 · Travis Snider 21 · Joe Inglett 11
DHAdam Lind 95 · Randy Ruiz 30 · Kevin Millar 22
SPRoy Halladay 6.8 · Ricky Romero 2.3 · Brian Tallet 1.4 · Marc Rzepczynski 0.9 · Scott Richmond 0.5
BP★ Jason Frasor 11 · Jesse Carlson 12 · Scott Downs 10 · Brandon League 9 · Shawn Camp 6 · Jeremy Accardo 4 · B.J. Ryan 2 · Josh Roenicke 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Roy Halladay 32 FA-elig 326.8 14.2 +2.0
Marco Scutaro 33 FA-elig 1444.2 1.1 +9.0
Aaron Hill 27 arb 1584.0 2.6 +7.0
Adam Lind 25 arb 1513.3 0.4 +7.6
Scott Rolen↔ CIN 34 FA-elig 883.1 8.2 -0.9
Ricky Romero 24 pre-arb 292.3 0.4 +5.1
Lyle Overbay 32 FA-elig 1322.0 8.0 -3.1
José Bautista 28 arb 1131.8 2.4 +1.9
Jason Frasor 31 arb 611.4 1.4 +1.8
Brian Tallet 31 FA-elig 371.4 1.0 +2.3
Rod Barajas 33 FA-elig 1251.1 2.5 +0.0
Randy Ruiz 31 – 331.0 – –
Alex Rios↔ CHW 28 arb 1081.0 4.6 -2.2
Marc Rzepczynski 23 – 110.9 – –
Scott Downs 33 FA-elig 480.8 3.8 -1.9
Brandon League 26 arb 670.7 0.6 +1.1
Jesse Carlson 28 pre-arb 730.6 0.4 +1.0
Scott Richmond 29 pre-arb 270.5 0.4 +0.9
Edwin Encarnación↔ CIN 26 arb 420.5 1.2 -0.0
Shawn Camp 33 arb 590.5 0.8 +0.4
David Purcey 27 pre-arb 90.3 0.4 +0.4
Brett Cecil 22 – 180.3 0.4 +0.2
Casey Janssen 27 arb 210.2 0.4 +0.0
Robert Ray 25 pre-arb 40.2 0.4 -0.0
Brian Burres 28 – 20.1 – –
Dirk Hayhurst 28 – 150.1 – –
Kyle Phillips 25 – 50.1 – –
Bryan Bullington 28 – 40.0 – –
Josh Roenicke↔ CIN 26 pre-arb 13-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Michael Barrett 32 FA-elig 7-0.1 0.6 -0.8
Vernon Wells 30 FA-elig 158-0.1 4.7 -4.9
Jeremy Accardo 27 arb 26-0.1 0.9 -1.1
Bill Murphy 28 – 8-0.1 – –
John McDonald 34 FA-elig 73-0.1 1.9 -2.2
Travis Snider 21 pre-arb 77-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Joe Inglett 31 arb 36-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Jesse Litsch 24 pre-arb 2-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Russ Adams 28 – 8-0.2 – –
Brad Mills 24 – 2-0.3 – –
Raul Chavez 36 FA-elig 51-0.4 0.5 -1.4
Brian Wolfe 28 pre-arb 14-0.4 0.4 -1.4
David Dellucci↔ CLE 35 FA-elig 8-0.5 1.5 -2.6
B.J. Ryan 33 FA-elig 25-0.6 12.0 -13.4
Kevin Millar 37 FA-elig 78-1.2 0.8 -3.7

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Ricky Romero2.3
Randy Ruiz1.0
Marc Rzepczynski0.9
Edwin Encarnación0.5
Brett Cecil0.3
Casey Janssen0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
A.J. Burnett5.0
Dustin McGowan2.0
Gregg Zaun1.9
Shaun Marcum1.6
John Parrish0.2
David Eckstein0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$80.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Roy Halladay3211.000$14.2MFREE AGENT
B.J. Ryan3310.000$12.0MFREE AGENT
Scott Rolen3413.000$8.2MFREE AGENT
Lyle Overbay328.000$8.0M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Vernon Wells3010.000$4.7M$15.7MFREE AGENT
Scott Downs339.000$3.8M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Rod Barajas3310.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
John McDonald3410.000$1.9M$1.5M$1.2MFREE AGENT
David Dellucci3512.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Marco Scutaro337.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Brian Tallet317.000$1.0M$2.0M$711kFREE AGENT
Kevin Millar3711.000$850kFREE AGENT
Michael Barrett3211.000$600kFREE AGENT
Raul Chavez3613.000$500kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Alex Rios285.000$4.6MFREE AGENT
Aaron Hill274.000$2.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
José Bautista285.000$2.4MFREE AGENT
Jason Frasor315.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Edwin Encarnación264.000$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Accardo274.000$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Camp335.000$750kFREE AGENT
Brandon League265.000$640kFREE AGENT
Casey Janssen273.000$414kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Lind253.000$412kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Inglett313.000$411kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Russ Adams285.000—FREE AGENT
Brian Burres283.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Jesse Litsch242.000$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Wolfe282.000$409kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Carlson281.000$409kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Purcey271.000$404kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Richmond291.000$402kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Snider211.000$401kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Cecil220.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Ray250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ricky Romero240.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Roenicke261.000$217kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Bullington28–—
Bill Murphy28–—
Kyle Phillips25–—
Randy Ruiz311.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dirk Hayhurst28–—
Brad Mills240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marc Rzepczynski230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.