RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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GM: JP Ricciardi

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.93× league · TAB +7.5
+7.5TAB — talent above budget5th/30
+6.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)7th/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-4.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag13th/30
20%dead money %6th/30
0.537win %10th/30
40.8roster fWAR5th/30
+10surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$70Mpayroll $M17th/30

Roster

CFVernon Wells 150GReed Johnson 16GAlex Rios 6G
LFFrank Catalanotto 101GReed Johnson 100GChad Mottola 3G
RFAlex Rios 124GReed Johnson 30GChad Mottola 2G
SSJohn McDonald 90GAaron Hill 63GRuss Adams 36G
2BAaron Hill 112GRuss Adams 50GEdgardo Alfonzo 12G
3BTroy Glaus 145GJohn Hattig 10GEric Hinske 10G
1BLyle Overbay 145GJason Phillips 6GKevin Barker 2G
STARTERSRoy Halladay 5.0WARA.J. Burnett 2.8WARTed Lilly 2.1WARCasey Janssen 1.0WARScott Downs 0.5WAR
CBengie Molina 99GGregg Zaun 72GJason Phillips 9G
DHShea Hillenbrand 44GFrank Catalanotto 20GGregg Zaun 19G
BULLPEN★ B.J. Ryan 38svJustin Speier 25hJason Frasor 12hBrandon League 12hJeremy Accardo 10hBrian Tallet 5hPete Walker 3hFrancisco Del Rosario 1h
CBengie Molina 99 · Gregg Zaun 72 · Jason Phillips 9
1BLyle Overbay 145 · Jason Phillips 6 · Kevin Barker 2
2BAaron Hill 112 · Russ Adams 50 · Edgardo Alfonzo 12
3BTroy Glaus 145 · John Hattig 10 · Eric Hinske 10
SSJohn McDonald 90 · Aaron Hill 63 · Russ Adams 36
LFFrank Catalanotto 101 · Reed Johnson 100 · Chad Mottola 3
CFVernon Wells 150 · Reed Johnson 16 · Alex Rios 6
RFAlex Rios 124 · Reed Johnson 30 · Chad Mottola 2
DHShea Hillenbrand 44 · Frank Catalanotto 20 · Gregg Zaun 19
SPRoy Halladay 5.0 · A.J. Burnett 2.8 · Ted Lilly 2.1 · Casey Janssen 1.0 · Scott Downs 0.5
BP★ B.J. Ryan 38 · Justin Speier 25 · Jason Frasor 12 · Brandon League 12 · Jeremy Accardo 10 · Brian Tallet 5 · Pete Walker 3 · Francisco Del Rosario 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2006 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Vernon Wells 27 FA-elig 1545.8 4.5 +7.1
Roy Halladay 29 FA-elig 325.0 12.8 -2.7
Reed Johnson 29 arb 1344.4 1.4 +7.4
Alex Rios 25 pre-arb 1283.5 0.4 +6.5
Troy Glaus 29 FA-elig 1533.4 10.0 -3.3
A.J. Burnett 29 FA-elig 212.8 2.2 +3.5
B.J. Ryan 30 FA-elig 652.7 4.0 +1.3
Frank Catalanotto 32 FA-elig 1282.6 2.7 +2.4
Aaron Hill 24 pre-arb 1552.5 0.3 +4.7
Ted Lilly 30 FA-elig 322.1 4.0 +0.1
Lyle Overbay 29 arb 1571.8 2.5 +1.0
Gregg Zaun 35 FA-elig 991.5 1.0 +1.9
Eric Hinske↔ BOS 28 arb 781.1 3.2 -1.0
Casey Janssen 24 – 191.0 0.3 +1.6
Justin Speier 32 FA-elig 581.0 2.2 -0.3
Bengie Molina 31 FA-elig 1170.9 4.5 -2.7
Brandon League 23 – 330.6 – –
Scott Downs 30 FA-elig 590.5 0.7 +0.3
Adam Lind 22 – 180.5 – –
Shea Hillenbrand↔ SFG 30 arb 810.4 3.3 -2.5
Shaun Marcum 24 – 210.3 – –
John Hattig 26 – 130.2 – –
Ty Taubenheim 23 – 120.2 – –
Jason Frasor 28 pre-arb 510.2 0.4 +0.0
Scott Schoeneweis↔ CIN 32 FA-elig 550.1 2.1 -1.9
Davis Romero 23 – 70.1 – –
Vinnie Chulk↔ SFG 27 arb 200.1 0.1 -0.0
Brian Tallet 28 arb 44-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Pete Walker 37 FA-elig 23-0.0 0.7 -0.7
Dustin McGowan 24 – 16-0.1 – –
Ryan Roberts 25 – 9-0.1 – –
Kevin Barker 30 – 12-0.1 – –
Francisco Del Rosario 25 – 17-0.1 – –
Luis Figueroa 32 – 8-0.2 – –
Jeremy Accardo↔ SFG 24 pre-arb 27-0.2 0.1 -0.5
Edgardo Alfonzo↔ ANA 32 FA-elig 12-0.3 3.2 -3.7
Chad Mottola 34 – 10-0.3 – –
Gustavo Chacin 25 pre-arb 17-0.4 0.3 -1.2
John McDonald 31 FA-elig 104-0.4 0.5 -1.4
Josh Towers 29 arb 15-0.5 2.3 -3.3
Jason Phillips 29 – 25-0.5 – –
Russ Adams 25 pre-arb 90-1.0 0.3 -2.3

Key additions (new vs 2005)

PlayerfWAR
Troy Glaus3.4
A.J. Burnett2.8
B.J. Ryan2.7
Lyle Overbay1.8
Casey Janssen1.0
Bengie Molina0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2005)

Player2005 fWAR
Orlando Hudson2.5
Corey Koskie1.7
Dave Bush1.2
Miguel Batista0.5
Frank Menechino0.4
John-Ford Griffin0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2006 payroll
$70.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2006, 2006–2012. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Roy Halladay298.000$12.8M$12.8M$10.0M$14.2MFREE AGENT
Troy Glaus298.000$10.0M$10.5MFREE AGENT
Bengie Molina318.000$4.5MFREE AGENT
Vernon Wells277.000$4.5M$8.8M$3.7M$4.7M$15.7MFREE AGENT
B.J. Ryan307.000$4.0M$7.0M$12.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Ted Lilly307.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Edgardo Alfonzo3211.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Frank Catalanotto329.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Justin Speier328.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
A.J. Burnett297.000$2.2M$13.2M$13.2MFREE AGENT
Scott Schoeneweis327.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Gregg Zaun3511.000$1.0M$3.5M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Scott Downs306.000$705k$1.0M$2.2M$3.8M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Pete Walker3711.000$650kFREE AGENT
John McDonald317.000$500k$750k$1.9M$1.9M$1.5M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Kevin Barker307.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Shea Hillenbrand305.000$3.3MFREE AGENT
Eric Hinske284.000$3.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Lyle Overbay295.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Josh Towers295.000$2.3MFREE AGENT
Reed Johnson293.000$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Tallet284.000$327kARB 3FREE AGENT
Vinnie Chulk273.000$145kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Phillips295.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Jason Frasor282.000$359kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Rios252.000$354kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gustavo Chacin252.000$348kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Russ Adams252.000$343kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Hill241.000$336kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Janssen240.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Accardo241.000$137kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Mottola34–—
Luis Figueroa32–—
Francisco Del Rosario25–—
Dustin McGowan241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon League232.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Hattig26–—
Ryan Roberts250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shaun Marcum241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Lind220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Davis Romero23–—
Ty Taubenheim23–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2006; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.