MIL⇄TOR

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$0.8M net +1.7

received +$20.8M+$20.0M ± $20M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 3.8 ± 2 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2006 odds 7% → 10% (+3.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Corey Koskie3B·33y·L/R

+$20.7M+$20.0M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 3.8± 2 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.9/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

2.59/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR JP Ricciardi net −$0.8M net -1.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2006 odds 56% → 46% (-10 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian WolfeP·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#179 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.