RRosternomics
𝕏

Blue Jays TOR

‹ ›

GM: JP Ricciardi

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.0× league · TAB -0.4
-0.4TAB — talent above budget16th/30
+1.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)14th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars19th/30
-4.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag12th/30
20%dead money %6th/30
0.512win %14th/30
33.7roster fWAR15th/30
-11surplus $M (value vs cost)16th/30
$82Mpayroll $M14th/30

Roster

CFVernon Wells 148GAlex Rios 22GReed Johnson 1G
LFAdam Lind 80GReed Johnson 70GMatt Stairs 43G
RFAlex Rios 147GMatt Stairs 17GReed Johnson 8G
SSJohn McDonald 102GRay Olmedo 24GHowie Clark 2G
2BAaron Hill 160GHowie Clark 3GRuss Adams 2G
3BTroy Glaus 114GRuss Adams 16GHector Luna 15G
1BLyle Overbay 119GMatt Stairs 45GCurtis Thigpen 14G
STARTERSRoy Halladay 5.2WARDustin McGowan 3.3WARA.J. Burnett 2.2WARShaun Marcum 1.1WARJesse Litsch 0.6WAR
CGregg Zaun 103GJason Phillips 49GCurtis Thigpen 22G
DHFrank Thomas 147GCurtis Thigpen 9GRuss Adams 7G
BULLPEN★ Jeremy Accardo 30svScott Downs 24hCasey Janssen 24hBrian Wolfe 6hJason Frasor 4hBrian Tallet 1hBrandon League 0hJordan De Jong 0h
CGregg Zaun 103 · Jason Phillips 49 · Curtis Thigpen 22
1BLyle Overbay 119 · Matt Stairs 45 · Curtis Thigpen 14
2BAaron Hill 160 · Howie Clark 3 · Russ Adams 2
3BTroy Glaus 114 · Russ Adams 16 · Hector Luna 15
SSJohn McDonald 102 · Ray Olmedo 24 · Howie Clark 2
LFAdam Lind 80 · Reed Johnson 70 · Matt Stairs 43
CFVernon Wells 148 · Alex Rios 22 · Reed Johnson 1
RFAlex Rios 147 · Matt Stairs 17 · Reed Johnson 8
DHFrank Thomas 147 · Curtis Thigpen 9 · Russ Adams 7
SPRoy Halladay 5.2 · Dustin McGowan 3.3 · A.J. Burnett 2.2 · Shaun Marcum 1.1 · Jesse Litsch 0.6
BP★ Jeremy Accardo 30 · Scott Downs 24 · Casey Janssen 24 · Brian Wolfe 6 · Jason Frasor 4 · Brian Tallet 1 · Brandon League 0 · Jordan De Jong 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2007 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Alex Rios 26 arb 1615.2 2.5 +8.6
Roy Halladay 30 FA-elig 315.2 12.8 -1.6
Aaron Hill 25 pre-arb 1603.4 0.4 +6.9
Dustin McGowan 25 – 283.3 0.4 +6.8
Troy Glaus 30 FA-elig 1152.7 10.5 -4.7
A.J. Burnett 30 FA-elig 252.2 13.2 -8.4
Frank Thomas 39 FA-elig 1551.8 5.6 -1.6
Vernon Wells 28 FA-elig 1491.8 8.8 -4.9
Matt Stairs 39 FA-elig 1251.4 0.8 +2.2
Jeremy Accardo 25 pre-arb 641.2 0.4 +2.2
Shaun Marcum 25 pre-arb 381.1 0.4 +2.0
Scott Downs 31 FA-elig 811.1 1.0 +1.3
Gregg Zaun 36 FA-elig 1101.0 3.5 -1.3
Jason Frasor 29 arb 511.0 0.8 +1.3
John McDonald 32 FA-elig 1231.0 0.8 +1.3
Brian Tallet 29 – 480.9 – –
Casey Janssen 25 pre-arb 700.9 0.4 +1.5
Josh Towers 30 FA-elig 250.6 2.9 -1.5
Jesse Litsch 22 – 200.6 – –
Royce Clayton↔ BOS 37 FA-elig 690.4 1.3 -0.5
Adam Lind 23 – 890.3 0.4 +0.3
Brian Wolfe 26 – 380.2 – –
Joe Inglett 29 – 20.1 – –
Jason Smith↔ ARI 29 FA-elig 270.1 0.2 +0.1
John-Ford Griffin 27 – 60.1 – –
Ray Olmedo 26 – 270.1 – –
Joe Kennedy↔ ARI 28 FA-elig 90.1 0.6 -0.4
Jordan De Jong 28 – 60.1 – –
Jamie Vermilyea 25 – 20.1 – –
Josh Banks 24 – 3-0.0 – –
Lee Gronkiewicz 28 – 1-0.0 – –
Brandon League 24 – 14-0.1 – –
Ty Taubenheim 24 – 1-0.1 – –
Sal Fasano 35 – 16-0.1 – –
B.J. Ryan 31 FA-elig 5-0.1 7.0 -7.2
Lyle Overbay 30 FA-elig 122-0.1 1.4 -1.6
Ryan Roberts 26 – 8-0.1 – –
Tomo Ohka 31 FA-elig 10-0.1 1.5 -1.8
Gustavo Chacin 26 arb 5-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Howie Clark 33 – 31-0.2 – –
Hector Luna 27 – 22-0.3 – –
Curtis Thigpen 24 – 47-0.3 – –
Russ Adams 26 – 27-0.4 – –
Victor Zambrano↔ BAL 31 FA-elig 8-0.6 0.3 -1.5
Reed Johnson 30 arb 79-0.7 3.1 -4.7
Jason Phillips 30 FA-elig 55-1.0 0.5 -2.7

Key additions (new vs 2006)

PlayerfWAR
Frank Thomas1.8
Matt Stairs1.4
Jesse Litsch0.6
Royce Clayton0.4
Brian Wolfe0.2
Joe Inglett0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2006)

Player2006 fWAR
Frank Catalanotto2.6
Ted Lilly2.1
Eric Hinske1.1
Justin Speier1.0
Bengie Molina0.9
Shea Hillenbrand0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2007 payroll
$81.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2007, 2007–2013. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
A.J. Burnett308.000$13.2M$13.2MFREE AGENT
Roy Halladay309.000$12.8M$10.0M$14.2MFREE AGENT
Troy Glaus309.000$10.5MFREE AGENT
Vernon Wells288.000$8.8M$3.7M$4.7M$15.7MFREE AGENT
B.J. Ryan318.000$7.0M$12.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Frank Thomas3917.000$5.6M$9.7MFREE AGENT
Gregg Zaun3612.000$3.5M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Josh Towers306.000$2.9MFREE AGENT
Tomo Ohka318.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Lyle Overbay306.000$1.4M$6.8M$8.0M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Royce Clayton3716.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Scott Downs317.000$1.0M$2.2M$3.8M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Stairs3915.000$850k$1.4MFREE AGENT
John McDonald328.000$750k$1.9M$1.9M$1.5M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Joe Kennedy286.000$646kFREE AGENT
Jason Phillips306.000$500kFREE AGENT
Victor Zambrano316.000$308kFREE AGENT
Jason Smith296.000$196kFREE AGENT
Sal Fasano3511.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Reed Johnson304.000$3.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Rios263.000$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Frasor293.000$825kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gustavo Chacin263.000$395kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ray Olmedo264.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Tallet295.000—FREE AGENT
Hector Luna273.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Russ Adams263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon League243.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Aaron Hill252.000$395kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Accardo252.000$392kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shaun Marcum252.000$386kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Janssen251.000$385kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin McGowan252.000$380kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Lind231.000$380kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Howie Clark33–—
John-Ford Griffin27–—
Brian Wolfe260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Roberts261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Litsch220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Inglett291.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curtis Thigpen24–—
Ty Taubenheim24–—
Josh Banks24–—
Jordan De Jong28–—
Jamie Vermilyea25–—
Lee Gronkiewicz28–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2007; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.