RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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GM: Gord Ash

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.95× league · TAB +3.9
+3.9TAB — talent above budget11th/30
+2.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)13th/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-4.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
24%dead money %10th/30
0.519win %12th/30
37.6roster fWAR12th/30
+2surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$46Mpayroll $M17th/30

Roster

CFBrian McRae 107GJosé Cruz Jr. 97GCurtis Goodwin 44G
LFShannon Stewart 140GJacob Brumfield 17GJosé Cruz Jr. 9G
RFShawn Green 152GJacob Brumfield 8GPat Lennon 4G
SSTony Batista 141GAlex Gonzalez 37GHomer Bush 18G
2BHomer Bush 109GPat Kelly 35GCraig Grebeck 17G
3BTony Fernández 132GWillis Otáñez 46GCasey Blake 14G
1BCarlos Delgado 147GDavid Segui 94GWillis Otáñez 18G
STARTERSDavid Wells 3.8WARChris Carpenter 2.9WARKelvim Escobar 2.3WARPat Hentgen 1.9WARJoey Hamilton 0.9WAR
CDarrin Fletcher 113GMike Matheny 57GMark Dalesandro 8G
DHWillie Greene 48GDave Hollins 23GDavid Segui 23G
BULLPEN★ Billy Koch 31svGraeme Lloyd 21hJohn Frascatore 10hPaul Quantrill 8hPete Munro 4hJohn Hudek 0hMike Romano 0hNerio Rodriguez 0h
CDarrin Fletcher 113 · Mike Matheny 57 · Mark Dalesandro 8
1BCarlos Delgado 147 · David Segui 94 · Willis Otáñez 18
2BHomer Bush 109 · Pat Kelly 35 · Craig Grebeck 17
3BTony Fernández 132 · Willis Otáñez 46 · Casey Blake 14
SSTony Batista 141 · Alex Gonzalez 37 · Homer Bush 18
LFShannon Stewart 140 · Jacob Brumfield 17 · José Cruz Jr. 9
CFBrian McRae 107 · José Cruz Jr. 97 · Curtis Goodwin 44
RFShawn Green 152 · Jacob Brumfield 8 · Pat Lennon 4
DHWillie Greene 48 · Dave Hollins 23 · David Segui 23
SPDavid Wells 3.8 · Chris Carpenter 2.9 · Kelvim Escobar 2.3 · Pat Hentgen 1.9 · Joey Hamilton 0.9
BP★ Billy Koch 31 · Graeme Lloyd 21 · John Frascatore 10 · Paul Quantrill 8 · Pete Munro 4 · John Hudek 0 · Mike Romano 0 · Nerio Rodriguez 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1999 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Shawn Green 26 FA-elig 1536.0 3.1 +4.4
David Wells 36 FA-elig 343.8 4.8 -0.0
Carlos Delgado 27 FA-elig 1523.6 5.1 -0.5
Tony Batista↔ ARI 25 arb 983.6 0.3 +4.3
Chris Carpenter 24 pre-arb 242.9 0.5 +3.2
Homer Bush 26 pre-arb 1282.8 0.2 +3.3
Tony Fernandez 37 FA-elig 1422.5 2.2 +0.9
José Cruz Jr. 25 pre-arb 1062.5 0.4 +2.7
Kelvim Escobar 23 pre-arb 332.3 0.3 +2.5
Darrin Fletcher 32 FA-elig 1152.2 2.6 +0.2
Pat Hentgen 30 FA-elig 341.9 8.6 -6.2
Shannon Stewart 25 arb 1451.6 0.4 +1.6
Alex Gonzalez 26 arb 381.3 2.3 -0.6
Billy Koch 24 pre-arb 561.0 0.2 +1.0
Joey Hamilton 28 arb 220.9 4.2 -3.1
Roy Halladay 22 pre-arb 360.5 0.2 +0.4
Pete Munro 24 pre-arb 310.4 0.2 +0.3
Norberto Martin 32 – 90.3 – –
Paul Spoljaric↔ PHI 28 arb 370.3 0.4 +0.0
David Segui↔ SEA 32 FA-elig 310.3 0.6 -0.3
Paul Quantrill 30 FA-elig 410.2 0.5 -0.2
John Frascatore↔ ARI 29 arb 330.2 0.2 +0.1
Dan Plesac↔ ARI 37 FA-elig 300.2 0.7 -0.5
Craig Grebeck 34 FA-elig 340.2 0.6 -0.3
Jacob Brumfield↔ LAD 34 FA-elig 620.2 0.3 -0.1
Kevin Brown 26 – 20.1 – –
Tom Davey↔ SEA 25 pre-arb 290.1 0.1 +0.0
Chris Woodward 23 pre-arb 140.1 0.2 -0.1
Graeme Lloyd 32 FA-elig 740.1 1.0 -0.9
Pat Borders↔ CLE 36 FA-elig 60.1 0.1 -0.0
Pat Kelly 31 – 370.0 – –
Gary Glover 22 – 1-0.0 – –
Eric Ludwick 27 arb 1-0.0 0.2 -0.3
John Hudek↔ ATL 32 arb 3-0.0 0.1 -0.2
John Bale 25 – 1-0.0 – –
Mike Romano 27 – 3-0.1 – –
Curtis Goodwin↔ CHC 26 arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.1
Willis Otáñez↔ BAL 26 pre-arb 42-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Casey Blake 25 – 14-0.1 – –
Anthony Sanders 25 – 3-0.1 – –
Vernon Wells 20 pre-arb 24-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Mike Matheny 28 arb 57-0.2 0.6 -0.8
Brian McRae↔ COL 31 FA-elig 31-0.2 0.9 -1.1
Geronimo Berroa 34 FA-elig 22-0.2 0.5 -0.7
Rob Butler 29 FA-elig 8-0.2 0.3 -0.5
Kevin Witt 23 – 15-0.3 – –
Pat Lennon 31 – 9-0.3 – –
Nerio Rodriguez 28 – 2-0.3 – –
Mark Dalesandro 31 – 16-0.3 – –
Steve Sinclair↔ SEA 27 – 3-0.3 – –
Robert Person↔ PHI 29 arb 11-0.3 0.1 -0.5
Dave Hollins 33 FA-elig 27-0.6 1.9 -2.7
Willie Greene 27 FA-elig 81-0.9 1.0 -2.1

Key additions (new vs 1998)

PlayerfWAR
David Wells3.8
Tony Batista3.6
Homer Bush2.8
Billy Koch1.0
Joey Hamilton0.9
Pete Munro0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 1998)

Player1998 fWAR
Roger Clemens8.2
Juan Guzman1.4
Woody Williams1.4
Jose Canseco1.3
Mike Stanley1.2
Tony Phillips0.8

Current & Historical Payroll

1999 payroll
$46.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 1999, 1999–2005. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (21)

PlayerAgeSvc1999200020012002200320042005
Pat Hentgen308.000$8.6MFREE AGENT$2.2M
Carlos Delgado276.000$5.1M$6.6M$13.7M$19.4M$18.7M$19.7MFREE AGENT
David Wells3612.000$4.8M$5.5MFREE AGENT
Shawn Green266.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Darrin Fletcher3210.000$2.6M$2.5M$3.5M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Tony Fernandez3716.000$2.2MFREE AGENT$379k
Dave Hollins339.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Graeme Lloyd326.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Willie Greene277.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Brian McRae319.000$868kFREE AGENT
Dan Plesac3713.000$703kFREE AGENT$2.2M$1.5M
David Segui329.000$640kFREE AGENT
Craig Grebeck349.000$550k$800kFREE AGENT
Paul Quantrill307.000$500k$1.8M$1.8MFREE AGENT
Geronimo Berroa3410.000$500kFREE AGENT
Jacob Brumfield347.000$298kFREE AGENT
Rob Butler296.000$275kFREE AGENT
Pat Borders3611.000$135kFREE AGENT
Pat Kelly318.000—FREE AGENT
Pat Lennon318.000—FREE AGENT
Norberto Martin326.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc1999200020012002200320042005
Joey Hamilton285.000$4.2MFREE AGENT
Alex Gonzalez265.000$2.3MFREE AGENT
Mike Matheny285.000$600kFREE AGENT
Shannon Stewart254.000$433kARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Spoljaric285.000$396kFREE AGENT
Tony Batista253.000$259kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Ludwick273.000$220kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Frascatore295.000$193kFREE AGENT
John Hudek325.000$120kFREE AGENT
Robert Person294.000$99kARB 3FREE AGENT
Curtis Goodwin264.000$7kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Brown263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Dalesandro315.000—FREE AGENT
Nerio Rodriguez283.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc1999200020012002200320042005
Chris Carpenter242.000$483kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Cruz Jr.252.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelvim Escobar232.000$350kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Homer Bush262.000$227kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vernon Wells200.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Woodward230.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roy Halladay221.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Munro240.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Koch240.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Davey250.000$129kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willis Otáñez261.000$118kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Sinclair271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Witt23–—
John Bale250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gary Glover220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Sanders250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Blake250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Romano27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 1999; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.