TOR⇄SEA

TORTOR Gord Ash net −$7.2M net +0.0

received +$6.4M−$7.2M ± $16M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 2.3 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

David Segui1B·32y·B/L

+$6.4M−$6.9M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 2.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.57/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$7.2M net +0.0

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $38M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.5 ± 5 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Steve SinclairP·27y·L/L

+$3.3M+$3.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#744 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Tom DaveyP·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#147 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.