RRosternomics
𝕏

Rays TBR

‹ ›

GM: Chuck Lamar

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.9× league · TAB -11.8
-11.8TAB — talent above budget29th/30
-11.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)26th/30
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars30th/30
-3.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag10th/30
64%dead money %29th/30
0.429win %25th/30
21.0roster fWAR29th/30
-25surplus $M (value vs cost)24th/30
$49Mpayroll $M20th/30

Roster

CFGerald Williams 138GRandy Winn 18GJason Tyner 6G
LFGreg Vaughn 72GJason Tyner 39GRandy Winn 29G
RFJose Guillen 98GSteve Cox 30GOzzie Timmons 7G
SSFelix Martinez 106GOzzie Guillen 42GRuss Johnson 16G
2BMiguel Cairo 108GBobby Smith 45GRuss Johnson 21G
3BVinny Castilla 83GRuss Johnson 53GAubrey Huff 37G
1BFred McGriff 144GSteve Cox 24GOzzie Guillen 5G
STARTERSBryan Rekar 2.9WARAlbie Lopez 1.8WARPaul Wilson 1.6WAREsteban Yan 1.6WARTanyon Sturtze 1.1WAR
CJohn Flaherty 108GMike DiFelice 59GToby Hall 4G
DHGreg Vaughn 52GSteve Cox 16GFred McGriff 10G
BULLPEN★ Roberto Hernandez 32svDoug Creek 2hBilly Taylor 2hJeff Sparks 1hDan Wheeler 1hJim Morris 0hTony Fiore 0hTrevor Enders 0h
CJohn Flaherty 108 · Mike DiFelice 59 · Toby Hall 4
1BFred McGriff 144 · Steve Cox 24 · Ozzie Guillen 5
2BMiguel Cairo 108 · Bobby Smith 45 · Russ Johnson 21
3BVinny Castilla 83 · Russ Johnson 53 · Aubrey Huff 37
SSFelix Martinez 106 · Ozzie Guillen 42 · Russ Johnson 16
LFGreg Vaughn 72 · Jason Tyner 39 · Randy Winn 29
CFGerald Williams 138 · Randy Winn 18 · Jason Tyner 6
RFJose Guillen 98 · Steve Cox 30 · Ozzie Timmons 7
DHGreg Vaughn 52 · Steve Cox 16 · Fred McGriff 10
SPBryan Rekar 2.9 · Albie Lopez 1.8 · Paul Wilson 1.6 · Esteban Yan 1.6 · Tanyon Sturtze 1.1
BP★ Roberto Hernandez 32 · Doug Creek 2 · Billy Taylor 2 · Jeff Sparks 1 · Dan Wheeler 1 · Jim Morris 0 · Tony Fiore 0 · Trevor Enders 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2000 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Bryan Rekar 28 arb 302.9 0.3 +3.8
Greg Vaughn 34 FA-elig 1272.2 7.1 -3.9
Steve Trachsel↔ TOR 29 FA-elig 232.0 0.7 +2.1
Albie Lopez 28 FA-elig 451.8 0.8 +1.8
Paul Wilson 27 – 111.6 – –
Esteban Yan 25 arb 431.6 0.3 +2.0
Felix Martinez 26 – 1061.4 – –
Russ Johnson↔ HOU 27 arb 741.2 0.2 +1.5
Tanyon Sturtze↔ CHW 29 arb 191.1 0.1 +1.4
Roberto Hernandez 35 FA-elig 681.0 6.0 -4.6
Cory Lidle 28 – 311.0 – –
Steve Cox 25 pre-arb 1160.9 0.2 +1.0
Jim Mecir↔ OAK 30 arb 380.8 0.2 +1.0
Jose Canseco↔ NYY 35 FA-elig 610.8 1.9 -0.8
Ozzie Guillen 36 – 630.6 – –
Kevin Stocker↔ ANA 30 FA-elig 400.5 1.2 -0.5
Rick White↔ NYM 31 FA-elig 440.5 0.4 +0.3
Gerald Williams 33 FA-elig 1460.4 2.4 -1.8
Jose Guillen 24 arb 1050.4 0.4 +0.2
Ryan Rupe 25 pre-arb 180.3 0.2 +0.1
Dan Wheeler 22 pre-arb 110.2 0.2 +0.1
Tony Graffanino↔ CHW 28 arb 130.2 0.1 +0.3
Dave Eiland 33 FA-elig 170.2 0.3 -0.0
Doug Creek 31 – 450.1 – –
Ozzie Timmons 29 – 120.1 – –
John Flaherty 32 FA-elig 1090.1 2.9 -2.8
Mike DiFelice 31 arb 600.1 0.5 -0.4
Mark Guthrie↔ CHC 34 FA-elig 340.1 0.7 -0.6
Fred McGriff 36 FA-elig 1580.1 5.9 -5.8
Bubba Trammell↔ NYM 28 arb 660.1 0.2 -0.1
Travis Harper 24 – 60.1 – –
Aubrey Huff 23 – 390.1 – –
Bobby Smith 26 pre-arb 490.1 0.2 -0.2
Jim Morris 36 pre-arb 160.1 0.2 -0.1
Mike Duvall 25 – 20.0 – –
Jeff Sparks 28 – 150.0 – –
Toby Hall 24 – 4-0.0 – –
Damian Rolls 22 pre-arb 4-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Jason Tyner↔ NYM 23 – 37-0.0 – –
Kenny Kelly 21 – 2-0.0 – –
Randy Winn 26 – 51-0.0 – –
Billy Taylor 38 – 17-0.1 – –
Trevor Enders 25 – 9-0.1 – –
Juan Guzman 33 FA-elig 1-0.2 6.0 -6.3
Quinton McCracken 29 arb 15-0.2 1.9 -2.2
Herbert Perry Jr.↔ CHW 30 FA-elig 7-0.3 0.0 -0.4
Tony Fiore 28 – 11-0.3 – –
Vinny Castilla 32 FA-elig 85-0.4 6.2 -6.8
Dave Martinez↔ CHC 35 FA-elig 29-0.4 0.4 -1.0
Miguel Cairo 26 arb 119-0.7 0.3 -1.3
Dwight Gooden↔ HOU 35 FA-elig 8-0.8 0.1 -1.3

Key additions (new vs 1999)

PlayerfWAR
Greg Vaughn2.2
Steve Trachsel2.0
Paul Wilson1.6
Felix Martinez1.4
Russ Johnson1.2
Tanyon Sturtze1.1

Key subtractions (gone from 1999)

Player1999 fWAR
Wilson Alvarez1.8
Bobby Witt1.8
Rolando Arrojo1.1
Norm Charlton0.3
Scott Aldred0.3
Mickey Callaway0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2000 payroll
$48.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2000, 2000–2006. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2000200120022003200420052006
Greg Vaughn3411.000$7.1M$8.2M$8.8MFREE AGENT
Vinny Castilla329.000$6.2M$6.1MFREE AGENT
Roberto Hernandez359.000$6.0MFREE AGENT
Juan Guzman339.000$6.0MFREE AGENT
Fred McGriff3614.000$5.9M$4.3MFREE AGENT
John Flaherty328.000$2.9M$3.0M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Gerald Williams338.000$2.4M$1.9MFREE AGENT
Jose Canseco3515.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Kevin Stocker307.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Albie Lopez287.000$800k$1.8MFREE AGENT
Mark Guthrie3411.000$716kFREE AGENT
Steve Trachsel297.000$676kFREE AGENT
Dave Martinez3514.000$439kFREE AGENT
Rick White316.000$395kFREE AGENT
Dave Eiland3312.000$300kFREE AGENT
Dwight Gooden3516.000$148kFREE AGENT
Herbert Perry Jr.306.000$30kFREE AGENT
Ozzie Guillen3615.000—FREE AGENT
Billy Taylor386.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2000200120022003200420052006
Quinton McCracken295.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Mike DiFelice314.000$525kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Guillen243.000$375kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Cairo264.000$295kARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Rekar285.000$265kFREE AGENT
Esteban Yan254.000$265kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Mecir305.000$211kFREE AGENT
Russ Johnson273.000$192kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bubba Trammell283.000$164kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanyon Sturtze295.000$135kFREE AGENT
Tony Graffanino284.000$50kARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Lidle283.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felix Martinez263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ozzie Timmons295.000—FREE AGENT
Paul Wilson274.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Creek315.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2000200120022003200420052006
Bobby Smith262.000$238kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Rupe251.000$230kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Wheeler221.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Cox251.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Morris361.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Damian Rolls220.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Winn262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Duvall252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Fiore280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Toby Hall240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Harper240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Tyner230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kenny Kelly21–—
Jeff Sparks28–—
Aubrey Huff230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Enders25–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2000; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.