RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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GM: Chuck Lamar

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.79× league · TAB -11.7
-11.7TAB — talent above budget27th/30
-10.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)25th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-7.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag23rd/30
33%dead money %19th/30
0.426win %25th/30
19.7roster fWAR28th/30
-14surplus $M (value vs cost)23rd/30
$39Mpayroll $M20th/30

Roster

CFRandy Winn 77GDave Martinez 52GTerrell Lowery 36G
LFBubba Trammell 61GPaul Sorrento 57GTerrell Lowery 29G
RFDave Martinez 93GJose Guillen 84GBubba Trammell 20G
SSKevin Stocker 76GAaron Ledesma 50GDavid Lamb 35G
2BMiguel Cairo 117GTony Graffanino 17GAaron Ledesma 17G
3BWade Boggs 74GBobby Smith 59GHerbert Perry Jr. 42G
1BFred McGriff 125GPaul Sorrento 27GHerbert Perry Jr. 14G
STARTERSWilson Alvarez 1.8WARRyan Rupe 1.8WARBobby Witt 1.8WARDave Eiland 1.3WARRolando Arrojo 1.1WAR
CJohn Flaherty 115GMike DiFelice 51G
DHJosé Canseco 106GFred McGriff 18GPaul Sorrento 8G
BULLPEN★ Roberto Hernandez 43svNorm Charlton 15hAlbie Lopez 12hEsteban Yan 7hJim Mecir 6hRick White 4hMike Duvall 0hAlan Newman 0h
CJohn Flaherty 115 · Mike DiFelice 51
1BFred McGriff 125 · Paul Sorrento 27 · Herbert Perry Jr. 14
2BMiguel Cairo 117 · Tony Graffanino 17 · Aaron Ledesma 17
3BWade Boggs 74 · Bobby Smith 59 · Herbert Perry Jr. 42
SSKevin Stocker 76 · Aaron Ledesma 50 · David Lamb 35
LFBubba Trammell 61 · Paul Sorrento 57 · Terrell Lowery 29
CFRandy Winn 77 · Dave Martinez 52 · Terrell Lowery 36
RFDave Martinez 93 · Jose Guillen 84 · Bubba Trammell 20
DHJosé Canseco 106 · Fred McGriff 18 · Paul Sorrento 8
SPWilson Alvarez 1.8 · Ryan Rupe 1.8 · Bobby Witt 1.8 · Dave Eiland 1.3 · Rolando Arrojo 1.1
BP★ Roberto Hernandez 43 · Norm Charlton 15 · Albie Lopez 12 · Esteban Yan 7 · Jim Mecir 6 · Rick White 4 · Mike Duvall 0 · Alan Newman 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1999 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Fred McGriff 35 FA-elig 1443.6 5.2 -0.7
Jose Canseco 34 FA-elig 1132.4 3.3 -0.3
Roberto Hernandez 34 FA-elig 722.2 6.2 -3.4
John Flaherty 31 FA-elig 1172.0 1.3 +1.3
Wilson Alvarez 29 FA-elig 281.8 4.5 -2.2
Ryan Rupe 24 pre-arb 241.8 0.2 +2.0
Bobby Witt 35 FA-elig 321.8 1.1 +1.1
Rick White 30 arb 631.6 0.3 +1.7
Tony Graffanino 27 arb 391.4 0.3 +1.4
Bubba Trammell 27 pre-arb 821.3 0.2 +1.4
Dave Eiland 32 FA-elig 211.3 0.3 +1.4
Mike DiFelice 30 arb 511.3 0.3 +1.3
Rolando Arrojo 33 pre-arb 241.1 0.2 +1.1
Kevin Stocker 29 FA-elig 790.9 2.4 -1.3
Miguel Cairo 25 arb 1200.5 0.2 +0.3
Bryan Rekar 27 – 270.4 – –
Randy Winn 25 pre-arb 790.3 0.2 +0.2
Norm Charlton 36 FA-elig 420.3 0.5 -0.1
Scott Aldred↔ PHI 31 FA-elig 370.3 0.3 +0.1
Jim Mecir 29 arb 170.3 0.3 +0.1
Dan Wheeler 21 – 60.2 – –
Albie Lopez 27 FA-elig 510.2 0.6 -0.4
Mickey Callaway 24 – 60.2 – –
Cory Lidle 27 pre-arb 50.1 0.2 -0.0
Alan Newman 29 pre-arb 180.1 0.2 -0.0
Tony Saunders 25 pre-arb 90.1 0.3 -0.2
Dave Martinez 34 FA-elig 1430.1 2.0 -1.9
Eddie Gaillard 28 – 80.0 – –
Jeff Sparks 27 – 80.0 – –
Herbert Perry Jr. 29 arb 660.0 0.2 -0.2
Julio Franco 40 – 1-0.0 – –
Jim Morris 35 – 5-0.0 – –
Rich Butler 26 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Danny Clyburn 25 pre-arb 28-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Esteban Yan 24 arb 50-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Aaron Ledesma 28 arb 93-0.3 0.2 -0.6
Steve Cox 24 – 6-0.3 – –
Mike Duvall 24 pre-arb 40-0.3 0.2 -0.6
Wade Boggs 41 FA-elig 90-0.3 0.8 -1.2
Julio Santana 26 pre-arb 22-0.3 0.3 -0.7
Terrell Lowery 28 pre-arb 66-0.7 0.2 -1.0
Paul Sorrento 33 FA-elig 99-0.8 3.0 -4.0
David Lamb 24 pre-arb 55-0.9 0.2 -1.4
Jose Guillen↔ PIT 23 pre-arb 47-1.1 0.2 -1.5
Bobby Smith 25 pre-arb 68-1.2 0.2 -1.7
Quinton McCracken 28 arb 40-1.2 1.9 -3.4

Key additions (new vs 1998)

PlayerfWAR
Jose Canseco2.4
Ryan Rupe1.8
Bobby Witt1.8
Tony Graffanino1.4
Norm Charlton0.3
Dan Wheeler0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 1998)

Player1998 fWAR
Jason Johnson0.2
Rick Gorecki0.2
Jerome Walton0.1
Brad Pennington0.0
Terrell Wade-0.0
Tim Laker-0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

1999 payroll
$38.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 1999, 1999–2005. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc1999200020012002200320042005
Roberto Hernandez348.000$6.2M$6.0MFREE AGENT
Fred McGriff3513.000$5.2M$5.9M$4.3MFREE AGENT
Wilson Alvarez2910.000$4.5MFREE AGENT$8.0M
Jose Canseco3414.000$3.3M$1.9MFREE AGENT
Paul Sorrento3310.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Kevin Stocker296.000$2.4M$2.1MFREE AGENT
Dave Martinez3413.000$2.0M$712kFREE AGENT
John Flaherty317.000$1.3M$2.9M$3.0M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Bobby Witt3513.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Wade Boggs4117.000$750kFREE AGENT
Albie Lopez276.000$630k$800k$1.8MFREE AGENT
Norm Charlton3611.000$500kFREE AGENT
Scott Aldred319.000$306kFREE AGENT
Dave Eiland3211.000$280k$300kFREE AGENT
Julio Franco4017.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc1999200020012002200320042005
Quinton McCracken284.000$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Mecir294.000$268kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike DiFelice303.000$268kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Graffanino273.000$262kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick White305.000$255kFREE AGENT
Miguel Cairo253.000$235kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Ledesma284.000$228kARB 3FREE AGENT
Esteban Yan243.000$225kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Herbert Perry Jr.295.000$210kFREE AGENT
Bryan Rekar274.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc1999200020012002200320042005
Tony Saunders252.000$278kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julio Santana262.000$272kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rolando Arrojo331.000$250kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Smith251.000$235kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bubba Trammell272.000$230kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Butler262.000$215kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Duvall241.000$215kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Lidle272.000$210kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Winn251.000$205kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Clyburn252.000$205kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terrell Lowery282.000$205kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Guillen232.000$203kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Lamb240.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alan Newman290.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Rupe240.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Gaillard28–—
Steve Cox240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mickey Callaway240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Wheeler210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Sparks27–—
Jim Morris350.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 1999; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.